Bills vs. Lions Parlay Picks & Predictions: SGP Odds

It might have the highest total on the slate, but our Bills vs. Lions parlay expects a lower-scoring affair and focuses on how to build out that wager.

Mike Spector

Last updated: December 15, 2024 9:58 AM EST • 4 min read

Detroit Lions running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery celebrate as we make our best Bills vs. Lions parlay. — Detroit Lions running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery celebrate victory over the Green Bay Packers. Photo by Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

Sunday’s Week 15 game between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions is a possible Super Bowl preview, with both teams ranked near the top of the Super Bowl odds. We delve into this high-profile matchup to make our best three-leg same-game parlay.

Detroit (39%) and Buffalo (28%) have the best chances to reach the Super Bowl (per ESPN Analytics)
Josh Allen is 2-0 in his career versus the Lions, with fourth quarter comebacks in both wins
Detroit’s 11-game winning streak is already a franchise record

We're digging into this game as part of our NFL Week 15 predictions, and I've already made my Bills vs. Lions prediction.

Bills vs. Lions parlay predictions

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Under 54.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
David Montgomery anytime touchdown scorer (-145) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Both teams to score in the first quarter: NO (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Combined odds: +485 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 17.09%

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SGP predictions for Bills vs. Lions

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Under 54.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

In sports betting, when most people zig, I prefer to zag. The Bills and Lions combined for 86 and 65 points in their games last week, respectively. These two offenses are No. 1 and 2 in scoring, as the Lions average 32.1 points per game while Buffalo is at 30.5.

All signs with this game being indoors point to another shootout.

However, this total had reached 55 points earlier in the week. If this game were to kick off with another total that high, it would be the highest in a game between the Bills and Chiefs since October 2022, when the final score was 24-20.

This is not a bet based on sheer contradiction, as Detroit may be getting back several key pieces on defense, like D.J. Reader, Josh Paschal, Brian Branch, and Alim McNeil.

David Montgomery anytime touchdown scorer (-145) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Montgomery and backfield mate Jahmyr Gibbs are the fifth running back duo in NFL history to each have 12-plus scrimmage touchdowns in a season.

Lions running backs are averaging 4.5 yards per carry. And in the six games that Detroit has played against teams with a winning record, Montgomery has carried the ball at least 12 times on five occasions, with a touchdown in four.

Buffalo ranks 26th in yards per rush allowed (4.7), so I expect both Lions running backs to succeed. Montgomery will again be the featured back in the red zone.

Montgomery to find pay dirt was also one of my Bills vs. Lions player props.

Both teams to score in the first quarter: No (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

With a high projected total, oddsmakers are confident both teams will get on the scoreboard in the first 15 minutes. But in Detroit’s high-scoring 34-31 win last week, it was the only team to score a touchdown.

Buffalo also allowed a long 12-play scoring drive on Los Angeles’ first possession last week. If that happens again, the Bills would likely only get one possession themselves, so we would need one defensive stop to cash this wager.

This is a three-star play, as Detroit especially tends to play slower than most teams, with the tenth-slowest neutral pace in its last four games. We also are not likely to see many of Dan Campbell’s fourth-down gambles this early in the game.

Bills vs. Lions picks

Bills vs. Lions odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Bills vs. Lions game info

When: Sunday, Dec. 15
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
How to watch: CBS
Weather: Indoors
Favorite: Lions -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”