Bills vs. Jets Week 10 Picks: Buffalo Gets Back to Dominance

The Buffalo Bills are coming off the most shocking upset of the NFL season in losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. The New York Jets are no strangers to pulling off upsets of their own. We make our NFL picks for the Bills and Jets Week 10 matchup.

This is the third consecutive week the Bills have been double-digit favorites and the fourth time this season. Buffalo is 1-1-1 against the spread in those spots and 4-3-1 ATS overall. The Bills have won eight straight games against divisional opponents dating back to the beginning of last season.

The Jets' 2-6 ATS record this season ranks 30th in the league. They are a profitable team to the Over, as it has cashed in five of their eight games.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 10 matchup between the Bills and Jets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Jets Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 14, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJWeather: 49 degrees, sunny

Bills vs. Jets Odds Analysis

The point spread has moved in New York’s favor since its initial opening at most sportsbooks. The Bills have been as high as 13.5-point favorites at some places, while most currently have them at -12.5.

There has been a lot of movement in the Over/Under, as the number has been as low as 47 and as high as 48.5 points.

Bills vs. Jets Picks

Bills -11.5 (-110) ??Over 47.5 (-105) ????

SEE ALSO: NFL Power Rankings Week 10

Bills vs. Jets Predictions

Bills -11.5 (-110)

Entering last week, Bills QB Josh Allen had six straight games with at least two passing touchdowns, which is one shy of the Bills' franchise record. He also had a 93 QBR on third-down attempts, which ranked second in the NFL behind Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford. 

However, all those statistics went out the window last week, as Jacksonville’s defensive line beat up Buffalo’s offensive line. The Jaguars sacked Allen four times and pressured him on 38.2 percent of his dropbacks.

As a result, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has to do a better job of helping his offensive line, which starts with being more balanced offensively. The Bills called 47 pass plays to just 14 run plays last week.

Fortunately for Buffalo, New York is tied for 18th with 18 sacks this year. In addition, the Jets are allowing a league-worst 31.4 points per game and were just gashed for 260 yards rushing by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. Thus, Buffalo should be able to better protect Allen by having more balance offensively. 

Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS against teams with a losing record, and head coach Sean McDermott will make sure his team plays a much more disciplined football game in the wake of last week’s loss.

Over 47.5 (-105)

Jets QB Mike White will return to start this week. It's a good sign for the offense considering he had 405 passing yards and three touchdowns in his first start against the Cincinnati Bengals before leaving last week's game due to injury. New York’s offense has taken off after rookie QB Zach Wilson was injured, as the team has totaled 64 points and 997 yards over the last two weeks. 

Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has changed his play-calling. QBs Mike White and Josh Johnson are getting the ball out considerably faster and the Jets are playing with a faster tempo over the last two weeks.

The Over cashed in each of New York’s last five games. With their defensive deficiencies, there is no reason to believe it won't cash again for our Bills-Jets Week 10 picks.

SEE ALSO: All NFL Week 10 Picks

Picks made on 11/10/21 at 11:45 a.m. ET.