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The key to Indianapolis' success this season has been its balanced attack. Both of Indy's losses occurred when Jonathan Taylor hit the under on this total, which he has done in four of nine games. The Colts will know the importance of not only getting Taylor the rock but also seeing their star running back have a productive day.

Atlanta ranks 1st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 158.1 passing yards per game. The Falcons have held all but two opposing QBs below 200 passing yards this year.

Indianapolis gives up 74.9 yards per game to tight ends, third-most in the league. Kyle Pitts has produced three games with 59+ receiving yards over his last five contests and has drawn 7+ targets in three straight games.

Bijan Robinson has been held below 50 rushing yards in three straight games and faces a Colts defense that has allowed just 87.0 rushing yards per game on the year.

The Falcons lead the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (158.1) and rank seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt (6) with an NFL-high blitz rate (40.9%). Jones struggles when blitzed, as his completion percentage drops to 57.9% from his average rate of 69.9%. Let's fade him on the passing yardage markets in this spot.

With Atlanta’s blitz rate in the 40% range, Taylor should be in an excellent position for successful screens or broken dump-offs. For all of the Atlanta secondary’s success at limiting passing offenses, running backs have been a weakness. The Falcons give up 6.4 yards per reception and 29.5 receiving yards per game to running backs

Drake London is vacuuming up targets while averaging 12.5 over his last four games, and ranking fifth overall leaguewide at 77. He'll now take both his volume and effectiveness against an Indianapolis Colts defense giving up the sixth-most yardage to wide receivers (1,429).

Of Jonathan Taylor's NFL-leading 14 touchdowns, nine have been scored in the second half. What's more, prior to getting shutout last week at Pittsburgh, Taylor had crossed the goal line in the second half at least once in four straight games.

Remarkably, the Colts have reached the end zone first in eight of nine games this year, including the last seven in a row. Tight end Ty Warren delivered three of those early scores in Weeks 4-6, and this week the rookie faces a Falcons defense that has surrendered 13 passing TDs.

Bad news: Only one of Kyle Pitts' 43 receptions this year ended with him in the end zone. Good news: Five tight ends have scored touchdowns against the Colts this year, with one hitting pay dirt in each of the last four games.

The Falcons will want to emulate the blueprint Pittsburgh laid out for stopping Daniel Jones, who is among the most clutch QBs. The Steelers sacked Jones five times on a 28.6% blitz rate and picked him off three times. Jones had a rating of 34.9 at PFF under pressure in that game, and blitzing is Atlanta's forte, with a league-high 40.9% rate. 

The Falcons allow the fewest passing yards per game (158.1), and create sacks at the sixth-highest rate. 

After Jones was sacked eight times since Week 8 (tied for the second-most of any quarterback in that span), Indianapolis should employ a run-heavy attack with Jonathan Taylor in Germany. 

This feels like a good bounce-back spot for Indy, which played its worst game of the season last week in Pittsburgh. 

It's nearly impossible to know what to expect from the Falcons on a weekly basis, but I feel pretty confident the Colts will be out for blood this week after a humbling loss to the Steelers last week. On paper, this isn't a close contest.

The Colts had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 27-20 loss after uncharacteristically committing six turnovers, when they had just four turnovers through their first eight games.

Atlanta is not looking for moral victories amid a three-game losing streak. But it can take solace in the fact that Drake London became the first Falcon with 100-plus receiving yards and at least three touchdown receptions in a game since Calvin Ridley did it in 2018.

Andrews caught two touchdowns last week and now faces a defense that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends in eight games.

McCarthy has yet to throw for more than 158 yards in an NFL game. Though the Ravens are allowing 250.1 passing yards per game, they're only allowing 10.5 yards per completion, and the Vikings rank 25th in pass attempts this season.

Henry has rushed for at least 119 yards in two of three games, and though the Vikings allowed just 65 rushing yards last week, they're allowing over 120 per game this season.

I expect Lamar Jackson to make the most of his new lease on life after returning from a hamstring injury. The Baltimore Ravens have a ton of ground to make up, and I don't think they'll let this opportunity pass them by. 

The Vikings came back to life this week in J.J. McCarthy's return in a shocking upset win over the Lions. But I'm still more impressed with what I've seen from the Ravens over the last three weeks - and especially last week in Lamar Jackson's own return to action.

Cade Otton leads the Buccaneers in receptions since Week 5. He has seen 6.3 targets per game in the last four games, and faces a Patriots defense that allows the seventh-most yards to tight ends.

Baker Mayfield’s 13-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio is the fourth-best in the league. 

He is 0-2 in his career against New England. And while the Patriots are tied for ninth with seven interceptions on the season, I expect Mayfield to utilize the short passing game as an extension of the running game, as the Patriots have not allowed a running back to run for 50-plus yards this year.

Drake Maye has an NFL-best 87 Total QBR while going 4-0 in road starts. In that span he has also averaged 9.7 yards per attempt and totaled a 7-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

But Maye has not faced the stiffest competition in opposing defenses in road starts (Dolphins, Bills, Saints, and Titans). And it is also concerning that his left tackle, Will Campbell, ranks 56th among qualifying tackles in pass block win rate.

Don't look now, but they let Diggs get hot, and we're firing him up as part of our NFL player prop bets for Week 10.  He's now caught a touchdown in back-to-back games, and continues to be a red-zone menace. With nine targets inside the 20, Diggs is now eighth in the league in red-zone looks. His 77% catch rate (first in the NFL among qualified receivers) in that spot doesn't hurt either. 

I've recently come to the conclusion that the Bucs may be frauds. Other than a win against the Seahawks, they've beaten the Texans, Falcons, Jets, 49ers, and the lowly Saints, with losses to the Eagles and Lions. Whenever they go up against an elite team, they crumble. The Pats may not be elite, but they're getting there. Give me Drake Maye and Stefon Diggs to cover and potentially win this one outright.

The New England Patriots have to lose at some point, right? Tampa Bay is coming off a bye week, and despite having some key personnel unavailable, I'm backing Baker Mayfield and Co. to improve to 3-1 on home turf. 

The Buccaneers felt like a team of destiny early in the year, though the good vibes faded when virtually all of their best skill-position stars went down. Even after a bye, Tampa Bay won't be whole in this matchup with a still-underrated Patriots team led by a true MVP candidate in Drake Maye.

The Texans have been tagged for seven rushing touchdowns in eight games played, with all seven coming from running backs.

Etienne has scored in three of his eight games played.

The Jaguars allow just 66.88 rushing yards per game to the running back position (3rd-best in NFL). Marks, has rushed for 30+ yards in just two of his eight games played this season.

Dalton Schultz has logged 60 or more receiving yards in three of his past four games. He faces a Jaguars defense that allows 75.0 yards per game to the tight end position (2nd-most in NFL).

The Texans have the top defense in the league, but without CJ Stroud, I don't see how their offense does enough to lead them over the Jaguars.

Jacksonville will have difficulty scoring in this game. It has averaged 16.3 points per game since Week 6 (tied for 29th in that span), and Houston has the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense (15.1 points per game) and total defense (267.4 yards per game). Meanwhile, Houston has just eight touchdowns in 22 total red-zone trips.

I am rushing to the betting windows to make this play on Jacksonville at plus-money odds, as this line could jump the fence if Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is ultimately ruled out with a concussion.

Houston did not score a touchdown against the Broncos last week, and only mustered 87 yards of offense in the second half with Davis Mills under center. 

I don't see C.J. Stroud winning the race against time as he goes through the multiple-step concussion protocol. If he doesn't play, I expect Trevor Lawrence to take advantage of the situation. 

I'm assuming C.J. Stroud will be available for this matchup, but either way his injury isn't a great sign for a Texans offense that still can't quite find its rhythm. I'm willing to buy into the Jaguars for another week, though it's not among my most confident plays of the week.

Without Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, the Jets' defense will allow the Browns to score more than usual, while the Browns' defense will totally shut down Justin Fields and Breece Hall.

Njoku has caught a touchdown in two of his last three games. The Jets have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the second-most in the league.

Hall gets a difficult matchup against the Browns' rush defense, but he's caught at least two passes in all but one game this season, and will be a key check-down option for Justin Fields against a great pass defense.

Judkins has rushed for at least 82 yards in four of seven games, and now he gets to face a rush defense that just lost Quinnen Williams and was already allowing 135.8 rush yards per game.

This could easily be my best NFL player prop bet for Week 10. The New York locker room is an absolute dumpster fire right now after trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, and now they get a tough Browns pass defense ranked fifth in the NFL, coughing up just 182 yards per game through the air. Justin Fields has had his issues throwing the ball, and that will trickle down to Wilson, who had three receptions for 18 yards last week.

The line hopped the fence after the New York Jets offloaded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Not having their two best defensive players against one of the better defenses is an ominous prospect for Gang Green. 

While their only win came against the imminently dysfunctional Bengals, I came away impressed by the Jets offense ahead of their bye week, which should help them cover the short number against a less inspired Cleveland attack.

McMillan has only scored in one game this season, but he has 21 more receptions than any other Panther, and the Saints have allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season.

Olave caught just three of four targets in Tyler Shough's first start, but Rashid Shaheed, who is no longer with the team, had over one-third of the targets in that game. Olave has at least six catches in six games.

Dowdle has at least 23 carries in three of his last five games, and though he's a bit banged up, the Saints have allowed the most rush attempts this season.

Although Rico was a little banged up in Week 9, he still finished the game with 25 carries and is owning an unbelievable amount of volume in that running back room. In three of his last five weeks, Dowdle has toted the rock over 20 times, and he might be in line for a similar workload if the Panthers jump ahead against the lowly Saints early.

I can't back a New Orleans Saints team that has lost all four road games by at least 12 points. 

Just when you think the Panthers will turn back into a pumpkin, they upset one of the best teams in the NFL. I don't want to buy too high here, but the Saints have their own issues and have lost by 12-plus points in all four of their road games.

Theo Johnson has caught at least one touchdown from Jaxson Dart in four of his six starts.

The Bears have allowed 20 receiving touchdowns in eight games (2.5 per game) with four of those TDs going to tight ends. 

Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson both cleared 50 rushing yards against Chicago while Geno Smith set a season-high rushing mark (31 yards) against the Bears.

Jaxson Dart has rushed for 54+ yards in four of his six starts. 

Monangai is coming off 176 rushing yards against the Bengals and should more steady work moving forward as a result, even accounting for D'Andre Swift's potential return Sunday.

The Giants allow 5.5 YPC (32nd in NFL) and 150.0 rushing yards per game (31st in NFL).

This game has a lower O/U than one would have thought, primarily because the temperature is expected to drop to the mid-30s in Chicago, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

That should have a huge impact on each team’s passing game, especially with Caleb Williams, who has thrown for 280-plus yards in back-to-back games. 

The New York Giants looked hapless last week against San Francisco at home. I have little faith in Jaxson Dart without Cameron Skattebo, and I saw enough positives from Caleb Williams in Cincy to back Chicago to cover at home, where they are palpably better. 

All of the attention this week is on the Bears' miraculous comeback, and rightfully so, but they also allowed 42 points to an injured Joe Flacco and Co. I like fading bad teams laying points, and Chicago just might be a bad team masquerading as a good one.

It isn’t every day that you can get a multi-touchdown favorite’s leading receiver in red-zone targets at such friendly odds. Josh Allen has thrown Shakir’s way eight times inside the 20 and twice inside the 10, which corresponds to a target share of 26.7% and 25% in those situations, respectively. Shakir isn’t the traditional big-bodied, goal-line fade receiver, but his shiftiness after the catch makes him a valuable asset. I expect him to get some valuable looks versus a bad Dolphins defense on Sunday.

While they’ll be without a few key pieces on the defensive front, the Bills rank a solid third in pressure rate (28.8%) despite blitzing at the 10th-lowest rate (20.8%), which should force Tagovailoa into obvious check-down situations. When the Dolphins last played the Bills, Achane was targeted a whopping nine times – and that was with Tyreek Hill still in the mix. Look for Achane to play a big role in the receiving game on Sunday. 

With Tyreek Hill lost for the season, Washington’s usage has ticked up. He is averaging 5.2 targets, four receptions, and 27.2 receiving yards per game since the injury. The Dolphins take on a defense that won’t give Tagovailoa time to waste, so I expect several designed quick throws to Washington. Those have been productive, especially lately.

Waddle has caught four touchdowns already this year - double the production of his 2024 campaign. With Tyreek Hill out, he's the only bright spot in that receiver room, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa knows it. Waddle has hauled in 11 of his 15 targets over the last two games for one touchdown.

Cook is about to feast come Sunday. Their division rival owns one of the worst run-stopping units in football, giving up 145 yards per game on the ground - good for 30th in the NFL. Cook is just finding his stride, too, rushing for over 100 yards in three of his last four games. Against the Miami Dolphins this year, he took 19 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown. Play this with conviction.

Buffalo has been excellent since its bye, putting together its most complete performance in last week's win over Kansas City. In the opposing locker room, I believe the Miami Dolphins players have all but quit on Mike McDaniels. 

This feels like it could be one of the biggest blowout wins of the season, and I'm surprised the Bills aren't double-digit favorites against the listless Dolphins. I'll gladly bet on Buffalo at this favorable line until that changes.

Seahawks tight end AJ Barner has scored five times, which is tied for the team lead. Four of Barner's end zone trips have come in the last five games, starting with a first-quarter touchdown in Seattle's 23-20 win at Arizona back in Week 4.

Sam Darnold is coming off a sepectular 330-yard, four-TD game at Washington. However, the Seahawks' quarterback has eclipsed 255 passing yards in consecutive games just once since early in the 2021 season — a stretch of 41 starts.

Darnold also was limited to 242 yards at Arizona back in Week 4.

Emari Demercado had 14 carries (and 79 yards) in Arizona's upset of the Cowboys last Monday night. It was just the fourth time in his three-year career — and first time in 26 games — that Demarcado had more than four carries in a game.

The No. 1 wideout in Seattle is currently leading all receivers in yards with 948, and has a 100% catch rate inside the 10-yard line. Smith-Njigba has at least eight catches in his last four games, and is averaging double-digit targets with three touchdowns over that span.

Seattle is an absolute buzzsaw, and I don't see the Jacoby Brissett-led Arizona Cardinals getting in its way. The Seahawks have the decisive advantage on both sides of the ball, and they're starting to roll at home, too. 

Seattle is one of the best teams in the NFL - full stop. Until the betting market starts treating the 'Hawks as a legitimate contender, I'll keep cleaning up at the window on Mike Macdonald's group against clearly inferior competition.

Adams has scored eight touchdowns and at least one in five of his eight games. The 49ers have allowed 15 passing touchdowns this season.

Kittle has yet to top 43 yards in a game, and now he has to face the defense allowing the sixth-fewest yards to tight ends.

Stafford threw three touchdown passes against the 49ers earlier this season, and he's thrown at least three touchdowns in four of his last five games.