Bears vs. Colts Player Props, Odds: Caleb Williams to Air It Out

We examine whether Caleb Williams can find success downfield and why D’Andre Swift could have his best game running the football.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 21, 2024 10:00 AM EDT • 5 minute read

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) attempts a pass as we offer our Bears vs. Colts player props for NFL Week 4. — Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) attempts a pass against the Houston Texans. Photo by Troy Taormina / Imagn Images.

The Indianapolis Colts (0-2) look for their first win of the season in Week 3 when they host the Chicago Bears (1-1) on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

Indianapolis is off to its first 0-2 start in three years after losing by one possession to the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers, and it remains a long shot by the latest Super Bowl odds as a result.

The Colts have faced two young signal-callers in C.J. Stroud and Malik Willis in the first two weeks. Now they get a date with No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, whose NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have plummeted after a bad start.

Our Bears vs. Colts player props take a stab at a play involving Williams once again, as we look to continue the success from last week's 2-1 run as part of our NFL Week 3 predictions.

Bears vs. Colts NFL player prop bets: Sunday

Odds as of Thursday and subject to change.

Caleb Williams Over 35.5 yards longest completion (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Anthony Richardson Over 0.5 interceptions (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
D’Andre Swift Over 52.5 rushing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Caleb Williams Over 35.5 yards longest completion (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Williams’ longest completions in Week 1 and Week 12 were 13 and 27 yards, respectively. On throws 15 or more yards downfield, he is 0-for-11 with a 100% off-target percentage, and his -35% CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) is the worst among all qualified quarterbacks.

However, Williams is due for positive regression in that metric as long as his offensive line can protect him better.

He also stands a much better chance for a long completion if Keenan Allen returns from a heel injury, as the attention he would attract on underneath and intermediate routes should open things up downfield.

The implied probability for Williams to complete at least one 36-yard pass is as high as 54.55% based on Caesars’ -120 odds.

Since BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting sites charging less than a -115 price to back the Over, that is where I am making my $10 wager with the hopes of returning a $9.09 profit.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Anthony Richardson Over 0.5 interceptions (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Richardson has already thrown four interceptions this season after being picked off just twice through his first two NFL starts.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, his completion percentage is 18.2% below expectation, and he is now facing a Bears defense that had 22 interceptions last season - tied for the most in the league.

There is a big 12-cent gap between bet365’s -125 odds and Caesars’ -137 odds for Richardson to throw an interception, and a $10 winning wager at the shorter price at bet365 would net $8 in profits.

Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%

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D’Andre Swift Over 52.5 rushing yards (-109) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Williams did not enter the league with the reputation of a Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson - truly elite rushing threats at quarterback - so it's concerning that he leads the Bears in rushing yards with 59 yards through two games.

If Swift is going to improve upon his 2.0 yards per carry average thus far, it'll be in this game against a Colts defense that has allowed 200-plus rushing yards in consecutive weeks for the first time since 2017.

Now that Indianapolis placed standout defensive tackle DeForest Buckner on IR, that should open up even more running lanes for Swift between the tackles.

Some of our best sportsbooks like DraftKings and bet365 charge extra -115 juice for Over 53.5 rushing yards, so the best price and number is at Caesars, where a $10 winning wager would return a net profit of $9.17.

Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%

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Bears vs. Colts odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Bears vs. Colts game info

When: Sunday, Sept. 22
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.)
How to watch: CBS
Weather: Indoors
Favorite: Colts (-120 via BetMGM)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”