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Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson of the United States walk on the court during a break as we share the best USA vs. Italy promo.
Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson of the United States walk on the court during a break in the second half of a 2023 FIBA World Cup exhibition game against Puerto Rico. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP.

With the 2023 FIBA World Cup semifinals at hand, we look at whether Germany can pull off the upset with our best USA-Germany prediction for Friday morning's clash using the best FIBA World Cup odds.

Team USA destroyed Italy in its quarterfinal matchup by a score of 100-63. While the USA was just toying with Italy, Germany had a much more stressful game in its quarterfinal matchup against Latvia.

Dennis Schroder shot just 4-for-26 from the field, but the Germans barely escaped a Davis Bertans 3-pointer at the buzzer to defeat Latvia by a score of 81-79.

A USA and Germany victory in the quarterfinals sets up one matchup I was hoping we would see in the FIBA World Cup after watching them play each other in the exhibition schedule just a short time ago.

Can Germany hang tough with the USA once again, or will the USA run them out of the building like they did to Italy? Get ready for the FIBA World Cup final with our Canada vs. Serbia prediction as the first of the two semifinal matchups.

Here is our best USA vs. Germany prediction for Friday's FIBA World Cup matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USA vs. Germany predictions: FIBA World Cup

Germany +10.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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USA absolutely ran Italy out of the gym in their quarterfinal matchup with a 100-63 victory, in a game where they opened as a 13.5-point favorite. You're going to have a hard time convincing people to bet on Germany when you have Tyrese Haliburton throwing alley-oop dunks to Paolo Banchero between his legs on a fast break, especially when the USA is already a popular bet among bettors considering all the high-level NBA talent on their roster.

With bettors looking to bet on the USA more than Germany, you're catching an inflated number on Germany at +10.5 (-110) via BetMGM.

The thing for the USA in this semifinal matchup compared to their quarterfinal matchup, where Italy was completely overmatched, is that Germany also has NBA players on their roster who will help them compete.

We saw it in Germany's exhibition schedule when they proved they can win against the favorites in this tournament like the USA and Canada. Germany defeated Canada once, lost to Canada in overtime in another game, and then were up 16 points in the third quarter against the USA until Anthony Edwards exploded and led the USA to a 99-91 victory.

Dennis Schroder will man the point for Germany. They have Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner in the frontcourt, along with Franz Wagner on the wing after he returned from injury in the quarterfinal game against Latvia. In addition to these NBA players, Germany also has a deadly shooter on the perimeter in Andreas Obst.

USA has received all the attention as the heavy favorite, but it's Germany who is the only remaining unbeaten team in the FIBA World Cup. There's a reason they were trading at +5000 to win the FIBA World Cup prior to their exhibition schedule and dropped down to the +1500 range following their exhibition games against Canada and the USA.

Germany can not only compete against the USA, but they can win, and it's why I'm taking the spread with Germany because I think this is way too many points to be giving Germany in this spot.

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USA vs. Germany best odds

BetMGM (-110)

Germany +10.5Germany +10.5Germany +10.5Germany +9.5Germany +10.5

We're seeing multiple 10.5-point spreads available on Germany across our best sports betting apps; it's really just a matter of juice when it comes to determining where to bet. Both BetMGM and bet365 are trading Germany with a juice of -110, which edges out the -111 we're seeing from FanDuel and the -114 we're seeing at BetRivers.

Make sure you're getting the best USA vs. Germany odds with our BetMGM bonus code!

USA vs. Germany odds analysis

It's been common in the FIBA World Cup to see very different spreads available at our best sportsbooks, but this isn't the case with this semifinal matchup between Germany and the USA. Other than Caesars trading the USA as a 9.5-point favorite, all of our other best sports betting sites have settled on the USA as a 10.5-point favorite.

The total for the USA vs. Germany matchup is trading slightly higher (178.5) than the total we're seeing in the other semifinal matchup between Canada vs. Slovenia, where the total is trading at 174.5.

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USA vs. Germany game info

  • When: Friday, Sept. 8, 8:40 a.m. ET.
  • Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manila, Philippines
  • How to watch: ESPN

USA-Germany pick made 09/06/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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