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Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reacts as we share our favorite Canada vs. Slovenia pick.
Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reacts during the FIBA Basketball World Cup group L match between Spain and Canada in Jakarta. Photo by Yasuyoshi CHIBA / AFP.

Though they're not meeting in the gold medal game many hoped to see, our top Canada-USA prediction breaks down the marquee matchup of the 2023 FIBA World Cup based on the best FIBA World Cup odds for Sunday morning's clash.

It's the matchup at the FIBA World Cup that every basketball fan has been hoping to see: Canada vs. the USA for the first time on the international stage, with Canada's roster featuring plenty of NBA talent. The only problem is that this game is for the bronze medal.

Serbia upset Canada in the semifinal with a score of 95-86, despite entering as 5.5-point underdogs before the game began. The USA was also upset in the semifinal by Germany, losing 113-111. Interestingly, the USA was an even bigger favorite than Canada, trading as a 10.5-point favorite against Germany.

We're going to get the matchup that every NBA fan has been hoping for, but it's just for the wrong medal. The medal might be bronze, but the money is still green, and we also have three Canada vs. USA player props for the occasion.

Here is our best Canada vs. USA prediction for Sunday's FIBA World Cup matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canada vs. USA prediction: FIBA World Cup

USA -6 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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If this bet doesn't demonstrate how unbiased my betting is and how it's strictly based on numbers, then I don't know what bet will. I'm Canadian, with plans to travel to the 2024 Paris Olympics to support Canada Basketball, but with the USA trading as a 6-point favorite in the bronze medal game, the USA is the better side in my opinion.

Both teams suffered crushing losses in the semifinals, and while I'm sure Canada wants to make a statement and beat the USA on the international stage, you better believe the USA also wants to ensure that Canada doesn't earn those bragging rights.

Canada can field a roster that can compete with the USA, but it isn't this one, and it could be without one of its frontcourt players, Dwight Powell, who suffered a back injury against Serbia. Canada has no depth in the frontcourt, and if Powell can't play against the USA, expect this spread to increase beyond the -6 we're seeing right now for the USA.

Speaking of Canada's frontcourt: though it has NBA bigs in Powell and Kelly Olynyk, they aren't rim protectors by any means.

Against teams like Slovenia or Latvia, whose rosters consist mainly of perimeter shooters, this doesn't get exposed. However, against the USA, which will have players like Anthony Edwards slicing through the lane and playing above the rim, this will be an issue. In a game that should have a fast pace, I think Canada could really struggle to defend the rim.

We often see NBA players trying to play their style of the game against FIBA teams with FIBA rules. With both Canada and the USA featuring NBA rosters, I expect we will see a fast-paced game that resembles a 40-minute NBA game. I don't believe Canada has the scoring ability to go toe to toe with the USA in this style of game, at least not yet. This isn't the strongest team the USA can field, but Canada needs players like Jamal Murray, Andrew Wiggins, and Bennedict Mathurin, among others, for offense.

Canada has Dillon Brooks and Lu Dort, who can lock down opposing teams' best offensive players, but that won't have the same impact against the USA as it did against teams like France, Latvia, or Slovenia, which didn't have multiple players who could create offense. They will be able to limit only two of the five offensive options against the USA, so Canada will need to find a lot of points in this game, and I don't think it has the offensive firepower quite yet for you to feel comfortable taking the 6 points against the USA.

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Canada vs. USA best odds

Caesars (-115)

USA -6USA -6.5USA -6.5USA -6.5USA -6.5 

You're going to end up paying the most juice at Caesars at -115, but this is, in fact, your best price for this game because you're getting the USA at -6 instead of -6.5. It would be a different story if one of our best sportsbooks were offering the USA at -6.5 at reduced juice, but that isn't the case. It's because it looks like the market might push this number to USA -7 or higher, further emphasizing the value of the price point you can find at Caesars.

Make sure you're getting the best Canada vs. USA odds with our Caesars promo code, and use code SBRBONUS1000!

Canada vs. USA odds analysis

We saw the USA open as a 5.5-point favorite at bet365, and it immediately jumped to USA -6.5 in less than 30 minutes. It will still take some time for this number to settle, but it looks destined for USA -7, and that could climb even higher if we receive more injury news about Powell for Canada.

The total opened at 186.5 at bet365, and that number didn't last long at all, as it jumped to 189.5. We're still seeing several of our best sports betting sites offering a total of 188.5, but it looks like this number will eventually settle at 189.5.

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Canada vs. USA game info

  • When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:30 a.m. ET.
  • Where: Mall of Asia Arena, Manilla, Philippines
  • How to watch: ESPN

Canada-USA pick made 09/08/2023 at 12:20 p.m. ET.

NBA betting odds pages

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