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Mikal Bridges and Paolo Banchero react during the FIBA Basketball World Cup Group C match between the USA and New Zealand as we look at our USA-Jordan Caesars promo code.
Mikal Bridges and Paolo Banchero react during the FIBA Basketball World Cup Group C match between the USA and New Zealand. Photo by Sherwin Vardelon/AFP.

The highly anticipated 2023 FIBA World Cup showdown takes place in the bronze medal match. Check out our expert player prop prediction for the Canada-USA game on Sunday morning that dives into the latest FIBA World Cup odds.

I've said it once, and I'll say it again: whether the medal is bronze or gold for the Canada vs. USA matchup at the FIBA World Cup, the money is still green if we get our bets right.

If anything, less interest in this game because the stakes are lower might actually open up more opportunities for us as bettors. The trading interest from the best sports betting apps could also be lower, given the 4:30 am tip on the East Coast for the bronze medal game, which might not attract the same volume of bets, especially with these medal games falling on the same day as the first Sunday of the NFL season.

The players might be disappointed that the stakes are a little bit lower in this highly anticipated matchup, but I'll still be waking up at 4:30 am to tune in because I've found some nice probability gaps in multiple player props, and I'll be cheering them on.

Here are our best Canada vs. USA player props predictions for Sunday's bronze medal game in the FIBA World Cup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Canada vs. USA player prop picks

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FIBA World Cup player props for Canada vs. USA

Paolo Banchero Over 7.5 points (-125 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I discussed this in my game preview for Canada vs. USA. Canada has NBA forwards in Dwight Powell and Kelly Olynyk, but they aren't rim protectors by any means. We've already seen forwards like Willy Hernangomez (25 points) and Bruno Caboclo (19 points) take advantage of this against Canada. Canada's best defenders are on the perimeter with Dillon Brooks, Lu Dort, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. While he may not be a starter for USA, Banchero is the most talented scorer from the forward position that Canada is about to face, and he can exploit this weakness.

When you look at the numbers for this Banchero bet, we also have an edge in pricing at BetRivers. All of our best sports betting sites have Banchero's total set at 8.5 points, but BetRivers has gone rogue by offering a total of 7.5 points. At BetMGM, Banchero is trading at 8.5 points (-120) for the Over, compared to the total of 7.5 points (-125) via BetRivers

FanDuel offers the Over at +102 on the 8.5 points, but considering I have Banchero projected for 9.1 points and the Over 7.5 points priced at -150, the odds at BetRivers provide a higher expected value in this instance.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 5.5 assists (-118 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  

This bronze medal game between Canada and the USA is expected to be played at a fast pace, as both teams feature a starting lineup comprised entirely of NBA talent eager to push the ball. This is evident in the total, as both Canada and the USA had semifinal matchups with game totals in the mid to high 170s.

The bronze medal game between Canada and the USA has a total of 190 after it opened at 186.5 but lasted only about 30 minutes before it was promptly bet up. It hasn't come back down and is now at 190 at some of our best sportsbooks, which is quite telling.

If a game is expected to be up-tempo with a high-scoring potential, an Over on a Tyrese Haliburton assists prop immediately comes to mind as a potential bet, and a favorable price at BetRivers makes it entirely feasible.

At other sportsbooks, Haliburton is listed with a total of 6.5 assists, often with reduced juice on the Over. I have Haliburton projected to record 6.4 assists, so, with a total of 6.5 assists and the best price being +100 via BetMGM, we don't have a bet we can place. However, with BetRivers offering Haliburton at 5.5 (-118) for the Over, not only can we bet on Haliburton, but it's also a five-star wager.

With our projection of 6.4 assists, we can price Haliburton at -155 to go Over the total of 5.5 assists, which means this bet shows a positive expected value of 12%.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 9.5 points (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐  

It's going to be a high-scoring game, and with defensive attention on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett for Canada, I think an Over bet on Nickeil Alexander-Walker's points prop becomes very appealing. Canada will need Walker's offense to compete against the USA.

Even when you look at a game against Brazil where he scored just three points, he attempted eight three-pointers; the shots are there.

We should expect to see a lot of help defense shifting toward SGA and Barrett from Team USA, which could lead to wide-open 3-point shots for Walker. Moreover, Walker won't draw a defender like Josh Hart; he will be guarding Gilgeous-Alexander. Walker should be matched up against players such as Austin Reaves, a matchup other teams have consistently targeted on offense.

I have Walker projected to score 10.7 points against the USA, which means we can price the Over 9.5 points at -130, yet we're able to get it at -115 via DraftKings.

Some of our best sportsbooks have Walker's total at 10.5 points. Make sure you don't settle for these odds; instead, take advantage of this Over 9.5 points (-115) available at DraftKings.

Canada-USA player prop picks made 09/09/2023 at 10:45 a.m. ET.

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