NBA Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Monday

There's a sports equinox on Monday, which means NBA bettors need to do their part and join the fun with some basketball bets, and we're offering our best NBA bets for Monday based on the top NBA odds.

We're back for another week of NBA player props after starting hot during the first week of the season with two sweeps. The last came on Friday when we won 2.72 units.

There's a packed slate of games on this sports equinox Monday, and both of our props are coming from the same matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers.

It might not be the game you were most excited to watch, but the players we're betting on will definitely hold your attention.

Here are our NBA best bets for Monday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

• Boston Celtics (-500) vs. Washington Wizards (+375)
• Chicago Bulls (+125) vs. Indiana Pacers (-155)
• Brooklyn Nets (-115) vs. Charlotte Hornets (-105)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (-135) vs. Atlanta Hawks (+110)
• Portland Trail Blazers (+275) vs. Toronto Raptors (-350)
• Golden State Warriors (+125) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-155)
• Dallas Mavericks (-140) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (+115)
• Detroit Pistons (+180) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-225)
• Miami Heat (+180) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-225)
• Utah Jazz (+260) vs. Denver Nuggets (-350)
• Orlando Magic (+105) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-125)

Monday’s NBA best bets

• Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists vs. Bulls (-145 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• DeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 points vs. Pacers (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Monday’s NBA player prop picks

Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists vs. Bulls (-145 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It doesn't take much to sell an Over bet for a Haliburton assists prop. He currently leads the NBA in assists per game at 12, which is great because I've also bet on him at +260 to lead the NBA in assists per contest throughout the regular season.

Haliburton possesses arguably the best vision in the entire NBA, and Rick Carlisle has geared the offense to run through his skill set. One difference between 2022-23 and now that's helping Haliburton get even more assists is the addition of Obi Toppin to the Pacers' starting lineup.

Toppin is a lob threat, which leads to easy assists because Haliburton can break the defense down and then find the power forward for an easy bucket. A player's assist numbers are less dependent on his teammates making shots when a quality lob threat is present.

Haliburton is projected to produce 11.1 assists on Monday against the Bulls, which allows us to price the Over on 9.5 assists at -198, but you can buy it through Caesars at -145. You're going to see a bunch of 10.5 lines out there as well through our best NBA betting sites, and the corresponding price for that total based on our projection is -120.

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DeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 points vs. Pacers (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'm making this bet thinking Zach LaVine will play. But there's a chance he might miss this game due to back spasms, which would make this wager on DeMar DeRozan even stronger.

DeRozan opened with a total of 20.5 points set at -110 against the Pacers on Monday before the market moved swiftly. It was immediately steamed up to -130, and while we're still getting an edge on this number, I'm opting to attack it as an alternate total because DraftKings is offering +100 on the 21.5 points. That generates a higher expected value for us.

The projection for DeRozan's point total is 23.8, so you can see where the steam came from. The 20.5 points was way too low, and DeRozan usually trades in that 23.5 window. You should check alternate markets to see if there's a chance to increase the expected value when the projection is much higher than the total, and that's what we were able to do in this case.

With this projection, we can price DeRozan at -144 to go Over the total of 21.5 points. Since it's available at +100 through DraftKings, we're getting a positive expected value of 18%. We would price the Over on 20.5 points at -180, and our expected value would only be 14% with that number trading at -130.

Both are good bets, but one is just slightly better than the other.

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NBA best bets made 10/30/2023 at 6:45 a.m. ET

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NBA betting odds pages

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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