NBA Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Tuesday

A Western Conference Finals rematch between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers headlines the NBA's official return on Tuesday, and we have you covered with our NBA best bets based on the best NBA odds.

Tuesday marks the opening night in the NBA and signals the return of our official NBA best bets! We'll bet on hundreds of NBA player props from now until June, and we'll win units. Let me repeat that: We're here to win units. If it has to be done with Ben Simmons Overs, so be it, because nothing else matters to me.

One of our player prop picks highlights a potential assists props edge in the Phoenix Suns - Golden State Warriors matchup as we get our first look at the Suns' Big 3 on Tuesday.

Here are our NBA best bets for Tuesday, and don't miss Shane Jackson's Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA player props and my NBA player props (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

• Los Angeles Lakers (+185) vs. Denver Nuggets (-222)
• Phoenix Suns (-105) vs. Golden State Warriors (-115)

Tuesday’s NBA best bets

• Anthony Davis Under 12.5 rebounds vs. Nuggets (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• LeBron James Under 24.5 points vs. Nuggets (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Bradley Beal Over 4.5 assists vs. Warriors (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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Tuesday’s NBA player prop picks

Anthony Davis Under 12.5 rebounds vs. Nuggets (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Under on Davis' rebounding prop has been steaming all day, and I can totally see the vision here. Last season in the Western Conference Finals, Davis averaged 14 rebounds per game against the Nuggets. That will have a lot of bettors immediately looking at the Over, but the Lakers didn't have another big to play in that series; Tristan Thompson was their backup.

Davis' rebounding statistics were the beneficiary of this lack of depth in the frontcourt, but that was addressed this offseason. The Lakers signed Christian Wood and Jaxson Hayes, and even Taurean Prince is a wing player who can hit the boards. Davis will still grab his fair share of rebounds, but with new players on the roster and roles adjusting, I can see how Under 12.5 rebounds becomes appealing in this spot.

Davis is projected to grab 11.2 rebounds against the Lakers, which is well below the total of 12.5 at bet365 and allows us to price this prop at -190. To maximize your edge, you will want to pick off this -120 via bet365; the Under 12.5 rebounds is trading at -164 at Caesars.

I'm targeting an even lower rebounding line for Davis with my best NBA parlays for Tuesday.

LeBron James Under 24.5 points vs. Nuggets (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I wasn't planning to go full fun police on opening night in the NBA, but I also wasn't expecting FanDuel to be so off-market with its points prop for James.

FanDuel is featuring James' total at 24.5 points, with the Under priced at -115. Most of our other best sports betting apps are setting James' total at 22.5 or 23.5, with even more juice on the Under than the -115 we're seeing at FanDuel.

James struggled to produce at this level during the Western Conference Finals when he was playing 40 minutes per night against the Nuggets, and he won't get that much time on Tuesday. Aaron Gordon's size and athleticism were consistently a problem for James during that series, and the Nuggets also sent a lot of help with a clear intention to make the veteran a passer.

James is projected to notch 23.2 points on Tuesday against the Nuggets, which means we can price the Under on 24.5 points at -149. This bet shows a positive expected value of 12%, directly related to the rogue price offered at FanDuel. That extra one point makes a world of difference in your expected value, especially when you're not even paying any more in juice.

Don't miss our Zachary Hanshew's Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction for a pick on one more Lakers star.

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Bradley Beal Over 4.5 assists vs. Warriors (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Editor's note: Beal is unlikely to play Tuesday night due to a back issue and odds have been pulled.

Bradley Beal will make his Suns debut on Tuesday night. He won't get the ball as much as when the guard was with the Washington Wizards, but this total has accounted for that likelihood. Beal was trading with an assists total of 5.5 or 6.5 for most of 2022-23. He was definitely not being offered at 4.5 with the Over at plus money.

We typically see lots of passing during the first couple of games when superstar players come together. Everyone is trying to feel out their role, and they don't want to come across as a ball hog.

Beal will get some opportunity to be the primary ball-handler. But even if he finds himself in the corner while Devin Booker and Kevin Durant run pick-and-rolls, Beal won't be just a shooter. He could attack the rim off of their action, which would help him generate dump-offs for teammates and easy assists.

The three-time All-Star is projected to post 4.9 assists against the Warriors on Tuesday. That means we can price the Over on 4.5 assists at -113, but it's available through bet365 at +110. Make sure you end your shopping at bet365 to maximize the edge with this bet. Several of our best sportsbooks have moved Beal into minus money for the Over on 4.5 assists.

NBA best bets made 10/23/2023 at 8:30 a.m. ET

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