Blue Jays vs. Twins Picks, Predictions & Odds: Game 2 Pitcher’s Duel in Minnesota?
The Toronto Blue Jays face elimination Wednesday after their bats went silent in Game 1 against the Minnesota Twins, and we have you covered with our best Blue Jays vs. Twins picks for Game 2 based on the best MLB odds.
The Toronto Blue Jays won 89-plus games in the regular season for the third consecutive year, but it will all be for naught if they do not come up with a road victory today.
Toronto has been swept out of the Wild Card round in its last two playoff appearances. The Minnesota Twins' 3-1 victory in Game 1 was its first postseason win since October 5, 2004 (Game 1 of the ALDS).
Here is our best Blue Jays vs. Twins pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Blue Jays vs. Twins pick
Under 8 (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Offense has been Toronto’s Achilles heel all season, and it manifested itself in Game 1, as the Blue Jays had more strikeouts (seven) than hits (six) and went just 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position.
In the Blue Jays’ last five postseason games (all losses), they have combined to score 13 runs, have a team OPS of .624, have batted .189 with runners in scoring position, and have struck out 45 times. It does not help that their two biggest bats, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have combined for two extra-base hits in 42 postseason plate appearances, per Sportsnet Stats.
Toronto should find similar offensive struggles against Twins righty Sonny Gray, who led the league with a 2.83 FIP and 0.4 HR/9 rate. Gray’s 5.4 WAR (second in the AL) is tied for his second-best ever in a season, and he finished seventh and third, respectively, in the Cy Young voting in the other two seasons where his WAR was that high.
We also expect a strong outing from Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios, who had an ERA of 3.53 or lower in four of the last five months. Berrios struggled in August with a 1-3 record and a 5.53 ERA, and posted a 7.6 K/9 rate. However, he found his swing-and-miss stuff again in a big way in September, recording seven-plus strikeouts in four of five starts.
We may not see many balls in play from a Twins offense that had MLB’s worst strikeout rate (27.3%) against right-handed pitchers at home this year.
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Blue Jays vs. Twins best odds
FanDuel (-120)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Under (-105) | Under (-120) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
The only decision Under backers have is whether or not they feel the -120 juice at FanDuel is worth the higher total, as it is the only shop offering an O/U above 7.5. For our money, it is worth every penny, as now it takes an extra run (nine total) to lose our Under wager.
With DraftKings being juiced at -115 to the Over, there is a chance it would have a more affordable price for the Under if it ever reached 8.0 runs, but we are not waiting and will take advantage of the better number at FanDuel while it is available.
Blue Jays vs. Twins odds
Blue Jays vs. Twins odds analysis
FanDuel opened with the Over juiced to -112, but within a half hour, its O/U price splits were -106/-114. At one point, BetMGM was juiced -120 to the Over and +100 to the Under before flipping to -105/-115.
The best sports betting sites are reporting that 57% of the early wagers have backed the Under. The Under is 8-0 in Toronto’s last eight playoff games against AL Central opponents.
BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars are on the low end of the moneyline odds at -135, while FanDuel is highest at -146. Early moneyline splits are 61/39 in favor of the Twins. The Blue Jays are on a five-game winning streak as underdogs following a road loss.
Blue Jays vs. Twins game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 4, at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 65 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph WSW
Blue Jays-Twins pick made 10/4/2023 at 6:12 a.m. ET.
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