MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: A Slugfest in Philadelphia?

The Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins begin a two-game series that completes Tuesday's full 15-game Major League Baseball slate as we make our top MLB prop picks and best bets based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.

Two of MLB’s best players did extraordinary things on Monday.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve hit for the franchise’s first cycle in 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Atlanta Braves All-Star Ronald Acuna Jr. stole his 60th base, becoming the first to reach that mark since 2017. He also set the record for most home runs in a season (29) from a player who's stolen 60-plus bases, according to Sarah Langs of MLB.com.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s MLB schedule and odds

• New York Yankees (+102) vs. Detroit Tigers (-122)
• Los Angeles Angels (+140) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-166)
• Tampa Bay Rays (-102) vs. Miami Marlins (-118)
• Chicago White Sox (+190) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-230)
• Washington Nationals (+170) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-205)
• Houston Astros (+102) vs. Boston Red Sox (-122)
• Texas Rangers (-130) vs. New York Mets (+110)
• Cleveland Guardians (+145) vs. Minnesota Twins (-175)
• San Diego Padres (-148) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+124)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+110) vs. Chicago Cubs (-130)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (OFF) vs. Kansas City Royals 
• Atlanta Braves (-265) vs. Colorado Rockies (+215)
• Oakland Athletics (+250) vs. Seattle Mariners (-310)
• Cincinnati Reds (+136) vs. San Francisco Giants (-162)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (+160) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-192)

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Tuesday’s MLB best bets

• Player Prop: Tarik Skubal Over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 via bet365, Caesars) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player Prop: Alex Cobb Over 2.5 earned runs (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Reds ⭐⭐⭐
• Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-105 via DraftKings, bet365) vs. Diamondbacks ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Total: Angels-Phillies Over 9.5 (-106 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Tuesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Tarik Skubal Over 16.5 outs recorded vs. Yankees (-115 via bet365, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The New York Yankees entered this series against the Detroit Tigers as the worst offensive team in the majors in many areas over the last 14 days, like batting average (.195), BABIP (.227), and on-base percentage (.268). They're also striking out at the second-highest clip (27.3%). The only area in which the Yankees are average is walks, as their 8.1% walk rate during that span ranks 17th.

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Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal hasn't allowed more than two walks in any of his nine starts in 2023, and he's posted a low 1.4 BB/9 rate over his last 32 1/3 innings (spanning six starts). He's been lights out at Comerica Park across five starts, going 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA, .184 OBA, and 0.82 WHIP. And Skubal is more stretched out in August after being on a strict pitch count during all of July while throwing 80-plus pitches just once, averaging 88.8 per start. He's yet to record more than 18 outs, but Skubal has reached that number in his previous two appearances. An outing against the scuffling Yankees could be his longest of the season. 

bet365 and Caesars are offering -115 odds to back the Over. DraftKings is posting slightly higher -120 odds. Be sure to get the best odds via our bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS.

Player prop: Alex Cobb Over 2.5 earned runs vs. Reds (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

This is only a three-star play, as San Francisco Giants righty Alex Cobb’s 2.25 home ERA is second in the majors, only behind Cy Young front-runner Zac Gallen. However, he's trending in the wrong direction lately, with no wins in his last eight starts and a 6.14 ERA over his previous seven.

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Perhaps Cobb still feels the effects of an oblique strain that landed him on the IL in June. He had posted excellent peripherals over 14 starts before the injury, with a 3.28 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA, 6.7% barrel percentage, and 22.5% strikeout rate.

However, those numbers have spiked to a 3.81 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA, 8.0% barrel percentage, and a 17.8% strikeout rate in 10 starts since the injury. And manager Gabe Kapler has still let Cobb throw 92-plus pitches in his last three starts despite his 7.20 ERA during that period. Cobb doesn't get removed at the first sign of trouble, which increases his chances of allowing runs.    

DraftKings is the only shop charging less than the standard juice to back the Over, as bet365 and Caesars are at -110 and -115, respectively.

Player prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases vs. Diamondbacks (-105 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Freddie Freeman made Los Angeles Dodgers history on Sunday while becoming the franchise’s second player to record 50-plus doubles in a season, according to ESPN Stats & Info. There are still 33 more games remaining for him to hit three doubles and break Johnny Frederick’s team record of 52. He's well-positioned to add to that total on Tuesday against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly.

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Freeman is slashing .333/.429/.667 over 24 career at-bats against Kelly, and he's facing him for the fourth time in 2023. Three of Freeman’s four hits in 14 at-bats have gone for extra bases (two doubles, one home run). Thus, we're making this Over a confident four-star play since Freeman is likely to cash the wager with one swing. Kelly has averaged six hits allowed in his previous six road starts.  

With Freeman’s odds as high as -135 to record 2-plus total bases, our go-to shops are either DraftKings or bet365.

Tuesday’s MLB game picks

Total: Angels-Phillies Over 9.5 (-106 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Philadelphia Phillies gave starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen eight days of rest after throwing a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals on Aug. 9. They had good reason to be concerned given how he's been pitching since.

Lorenzen has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits during his last nine innings, spanning two starts. He generated just one swing-and-miss on a fastball two starts ago against the Nationals, a pitch that was down 0.6 mph on average. That's concerning considering he threw it 38% of the time. His velocity was down at least 0.6 mph on all his offerings, and he induced just six whiffs on 74 pitches total. He also recorded seven whiffs on 93 pitches during his last start.

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We expect the Phillies to put up runs against Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson, who has pitched to a 5.63 ERA in 12 road appearances (11 starts). This is a confident four-star play, as Philadelphia has posted the highest wRC+ (155) against lefties in home games among all NL teams since July 1.    

BetRivers is the only shop offering the Over at less than standard -110 odds. Register via our our BetRivers promo code: SBRBONUS!

MLB best bets made 8/29/2023 at 7:25 a.m. ET.

MLB betting odds pages

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)