I'll let you boys know in 2 months.
Wish me luck.
Wish me luck.
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That guy has tremendous dance moves.
He should get tested.Comment -
Some long stories go a little different than others.
But the shortened version is always the same...
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Alright I was going to analyze results as I thought we had a play going off here.
But no play going off and it's late. I know there were some questions in the last couple of pages. I'll go back and see tomorrow.
Really getting the neuritis coming on, it could get a lot worse.
Feeling the fire...
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It currently says this at the bottom of the page...
I think this thread alone has gotten 2800 views in the last 3 hours.There are currently 2686 users online. 160 members and 2526 guests
Forget the views, that's a terrible ratio of members to guests, isn't it?
Feeling the fire...
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I think Washington is in a good position to win the Series and tonight it looks like them or no play.
I don't think they get it tonight though, but who knows?" They've had a good run and may have to endure a loss or two, it seems.
But don't count them out, it's looking to be one of those years.
Don't let it go unnoticed.
The underboob. Don't let the underboob go unnoticed.Comment -
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Here's the KVB NCAAF Totals Fund through week 8 with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison.
This Fund went 1-2, -1.13 units this week. Overall this Fund is -7.59 units with an atrocious win loss record but seems improving and steady against the closer...
1 Unit Closing Beat BTC Record Date NCAAF Totals Fund per bet Line Closer? Average 136 0-1 29-Aug G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105) -1 60.5 Y 1 158 0-2 30-Aug PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105) -1 58.5 PUSH 0 181 0-3 31-Aug SC/NC OVER 63 (-105) -1 62 N -1 216 0-3-1 1-Sep HOU/OK UNDER 80 (-105) 0 80.5 N -0.5 312 1-3-1 7-Sep ARMY/MICH UNDER 48 (-105) 0.95 48 PUSH 0 376 1-4-1 NEVADA/OREGON UNDER 61.5 (-105) -1 62 N -0.5 392 2-4-1 ORE ST/HAWAII UNDER 77.5 (-105) 0.95 78 N -0.5 106 2-5-1 13-Sep KANSAS/BC UNDER 51 (-105) -1 51 PUSH 0 108 3-5-1 WASH ST/HOU UNDER 74.5 (-105) 0.95 74 Y 0.5 128 4-5-1 14-Sep SDSU/N MEX ST UNDER 51 (-105) 0.95 51 PUSH 0 138 4-6-1 ALABAMA/SC UNDER 61.5 (-105) -1 59.5 Y 2 314 4-7-1 21-Sep MIA (OH)/OHIO ST UNDER 56.5 (-105) -1 56.5 PUSH 0 398 4-8-1 UCLA/WASH ST UNDER 58.5 (-105) -1 59.5 N -1 116 5-8-1 28-Sep WAKE/BC UNDER 69.5 (-108) 0.93 69.5 PUSH 0 134 5-9-1 AKRON/UMASS UNDER 62.5 (-108) -1 60.5 Y 2 142 6-9-1 M TENN ST/IOWA UNDER 52 (-102) 0.98 51 Y 1 146 7-9-1 WASH ST/UTAH UNDER 57 (-105) 0.95 57 PUSH 0 170 7-10-1 T TECH/OKLAHOMA UNDER 70.5 (-110) -1 69 Y 1.5 341 7-11-1 5-Oct LIBERTY/N MEX ST OVER 62.5 (-105) -1 63.5 Y 1 367 7-12-1 W MICH/TOLEDO OVER 72.5 (-105) -1 73.5 Y 1 385 7-13-1 AUBURN/FLORIDA OVER 48.5 (-109) -1 48.5 PUSH 0 109 7-14-1 11-Oct VA/MIA OVER 43 (-105) -1 43.5 Y 0.5 168 8-14-1 12-Oct MIA (OH)/W MICH UNDER 57 (-105) 0.95 57.5 Y 0.5 196 8-15-1 MASS/LOUIS TECH UNDER 63 (-105) -1 64 Y 1 205 9-15-1 WYOMING/SDSU OVER 38 (-107) 0.93 37.5 N -0.5 331 9-16-1 19-Oct FLORIDA ST/WAKE OVER 68 (-110) -1 68.5 Y 0.5 372 10-16-1 COLORADA/WASH ST UNDER 71 (-115) 0.87 68.5 Y 2.5 416 10-17-1 RICE/UTSA UNDER 42.5 (-105) -1 43 N -0.5 10-17-1 Total -7.59 13-7-8 0.375
Again, what adversity this Fund had last year was mostly above water but it did dip close to zero and with this years -7.59 units, we have given up all of last years gains in this Fund...
Here's this year's charts. We have a situation where the closing average comparison started out slow but seems to be improving overall while the units have dropped...
While this year's closing comparison has caused an overall dip so that we are no enjoying a near .6 point advantage, we are still well over half a point (.54848) in the comparison over 195 plays...
It's best to keep an eye on that closing value momentum and the overall give and take trend of the market here, as some adjustments to this Fund are market based.
It's been a pretty rough start to this season so let's see if the Units can follow that closing comparison as we get deeper into the second half of the season.
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Here's the KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund through week 8 with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison.
This Fund went 3-3-1, -.18 units this week and has been steadily rising against the closer.
Record Date NCAAF ATS/ML Fund 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ATS ATS per bet Line Closer? Average 141 1-0 29-Aug KENT ST +24.5 (-105) 0.95 24.5 PUSH 0 144 1-1 BYU +6.5 (-105) -1 5 Y 1.5 235 2-1 S DAKOTA ST +15.5 (-110) 0.91 14.5 Y 1 150 2-2 30-Aug S FLORIDA +10.5 (-105) -1 10 Y 0.5 161 3-2 31-Aug FAU +27.5 (-105) 0.95 28 N -0.5 183 3-3 Duke +33.5 (-105) -1 33.5 PUSH 0 204 3-4 PIT +2.5 (+100) -1 2.5 PUSH 0 319 3-5 7-Sep WV +14 (-107) -1 13.5 Y 0.5 334 3-6 CLEMSON -16.5 (-105) -1 -16.5 N -0.5 349 4-6 SDSU +9 (-105) 0.95 7.5 Y 1.5 360 4-7 FAU +10.5 (-102) -1 13.5 N -3 364 4-8 KANSAS -7 (-110) -1 -7 PUSH 0 389 4-8-1 MINNESOTA -3 (-110) 0 -3 PUSH 0 110 4-9-1 14-Sep INDIANA +18 (-105) -1 17.5 Y 0.5 114 5-9-1 WV +7 (-105) 0.95 7 PUSH 0 116 6-9-1 TEMPLE +7 (-105) 0.95 5 Y 2 121 7-9-1 E MICHIGAN +7 (+100) 1 7 PUSH 0 150 7-10-1 TULSA +14 (-103) -1 14 PUSH 0 164 7-11-1 BGSU +12 (-105) -1 12.5 N -0.5 306 8-11-1 20-Sep USC +3.5 (-105) 0.95 3.5 PUSH 0 307 8-12-1 FL INT +7.5 (-112) -1 7 Y 0.5 347 9-12-1 21-Sep N MEX ST +4.5 (-105) 0.95 4 Y 0.5 362 10-12-1 MISS ST -6 (-105) 0.95 -6 PUSH 0 370 10-13-1 TULSA -3.5 (-105) -1 -5.5 Y 2 394 11-13-1 FLORIDA ST -6.5 (-110) 0.91 -6.5 PUSH 0 396 11-14-1 UTEP +14.5 (-112) -1 14 Y 0.5 108 11-15-1 27-Sep MD +6.5 (-109) -1 6.5 PUSH 0 113 12-15-1 28-Sep N'WESTERN +24.5 (-105) 0.95 23 Y 1.5 125 12-16-1 G TECH +8.5 (-102) -1 9 N -0.5 172 12-17-1 CHARLOTTE -1 (-105) -1 1 N -2 192 13-17-1 W KENTUCKY +3.5 (-110) 0.91 3 Y 0.5 308 14-17-1 4-Oct CINCI +4 (-108) 0.93 3.5 Y 0.5 332 15-17-1 5-Oct T TECH +10 (-109) 0.92 9.5 Y 0.5 333 15-18-1 KENT ST +35 (-107) -1 35 PUSH 0 354 15-19-1 SMU -12.5 (-105) -1 -12 N -0.5 362 15-20-1 NEBRASKA -7 (-115) -1 -7.5 Y 0.5 366 16-20-1 NAVY +3.5 (-110) 0.91 3 Y 0.5 382 17-20-1 GA ST +6.5 (-101) 0.99 6.5 PUSH 0 124 17-21-1 12-Oct TULSA +1.5 (-108) -1 -1 Y 2.5 136 18-21-1 PURDUE +3.5 (-110) 0.91 4 N -0.5 160 18-22-1 AKRON +14.5 (-105) -1 14.5 PUSH 0 170 19-22-1 S FLORIDA +5 (-103) 0.97 4.5 Y 0.5 177 19-23-1 MICHIGAN ST +10.5 (-105) -1 8 Y 2.5 190 20-23-1 S MISS -3 (-105) 0.95 -3 PUSH 0 311 21-23-1 18-Oct PITT -3.5 (-115) 0.87 -3.5 PUSH 0 328 21-23-2 19-Oct MD +6 (-102) 0 6.5 N -0.5 346 21-24-2 OHIO -7.5 (-105) -1 -9 Y 1.5 356 22-24-2 BYU +7 (+100) 1 7 PUSH 0 362 23-24-2 BALL ST -2 (-105) 0.95 -3 Y 1 374 23-25-2 SC +5.5 (-107) -1 3.5 Y 2 392 23-26-2 ARKANSAS +19.5 (-102) -1 20 N -0.5 23-26-2 Total -4.32 23-10-18 0.314
This year there have been 51 plays and last year it took 57 plays for this Fund to reach positive territory...
The Fund is basically at the same level against the close as last year but this year's charts show it trending upwards from the slower start...
Let's see how the next couple of weeks unfold here. Let's see if this can turn positive, last year it really took off once it flipped, let's hope for the same.
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Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket after week 8 with links to each play and a closing line comparison.
This Fund had 6 plays going 1-5 for -3.7 units this week but was 4-2 against the close, beating the closing line by more than 11 cents...
Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 133 29-Aug UCLA +140 -1 116 Y 0.25 137 FL INT +135 -1 128 Y 0.07 147 30-Aug UTAH ST +150 -1 174 N -0.24 175 31-Aug MISSISSIPPI +145 -1 139 Y 0.06 193 SMU +140 1.4 105 Y 0.35 281 ILLINOIS ST +155 -1 220 N -0.65 305 7-Sep OHIO +160 -1 161 N -0.01 317 SYRACUSE +115 -1 102 Y 0.13 343 ARKANSAS ST +115 1.15 -106 Y 0.21 355 N TEXAS +160 -1 152 Y 0.08 357 BYU +145 1.45 134 Y 0.11 385 STANFORD +135 -1 146 N -0.11 401 KENNESAW ST -110 -1 165 N -0.75 409 S ILLINOIS +145 1.45 190 N -0.45 103 13-Sep NC +150 -1 132 Y 0.18 125 14-Sep AIR FORCE +155 1.55 130 Y 0.25 133 AKRON +140 -1 119 Y 0.21 153 IOWA -125 0.8 -123 N -0.02 167 S MISS +130 1.3 130 PUSH 0.00 185 TCU +105 1.05 -155 Y 0.60 303 19-Sep HOUSTON +155 -1 162 N -0.07 321 21-Sep UL LAFAYETTE +145 1.45 132 Y 0.13 343 MICHIGAN +150 -1 145 Y 0.05 347 N MEX ST +167 -1 159 Y 0.08 353 CAL -103 0.97 126 Y 0.29 357 GEORGIA ST +120 -1 119 Y 0.01 365 APP ST +140 1.4 109 Y 0.31 367 AUBURN +160 1.6 156 Y 0.04 369 WYOMING +135 -1 188 N -0.53 105 27-Sep DUKE +115 1.15 124 N -0.09 123 28-Sep BUFFALO +115 -1 -124 Y 0.39 137 MINNESOTA -110 0.91 108 N -0.18 149 HAWAII +115 1.15 111 N -0.04 157 KENTUCKY +110 -1 148 N -0.38 165 K STATE +160 -1 165 N -0.05 171 FAU -103 0.97 -126 Y 0.23 179 E CAROLNA -102 0.98 136 N -0.38 197 HOUSTON +115 1.15 256 N -1.41 321 5-Oct BALL ST +160 1.6 152 Y 0.08 327 BAYLOR +110 1.1 -114 Y 0.24 343 ARIZONA +135 1.35 120 Y 0.15 367 W MICHIGAN +115 -1 106 Y 0.09 373 TCU +155 -1 137 Y 0.18 395 UTSA +105 1.05 -110 Y 0.15 101 9-Oct APP ST +130 1.3 118 Y 0.12 107 10-Oct SYRACUSE +155 -1 159 N -0.04 109 11-Oct VIRGINIA -103 -1 122 N -0.25 123 12-Oct NAVY +105 1.05 102 Y 0.03 141 BALL ST +102 1.02 102 PUSH 0.00 147 WASH ST +130 -1 -136 Y 0.66 181 SJST +125 -1 121 Y 0.04 197 FRESNO ST +155 -1 124 Y 0.31 317 19-Oct DUKE +160 -1 149 Y 0.11 331 FLORIDA ST +125 -1 -136 Y 0.61 361 TOLEDO +110 -1 146 N -0.36 383 S MISS +105 -1 -140 Y 0.45 389 BAYLOR +130 1.3 188 N -0.58 395 TULANE +165 -1 121 Y 0.44 Total -0.35 36-20-2 0.019
A unit slide was predicted in this Fund and last week's -1.63 outing was compounded this week with the -3.7 unit week but we continue to see a rise in the sluggish closing line comparison.
This year's chart shows the slow steady rise in the closing comparison as the season has progressed even though we are basically even against the close for the season...
This isn't saying much and the two year chart shows why the bigger news is that we stopped the decline in the closing line comparison...
I posted the units chart there so we can see how the closing line comparison dropped at the end of last season and beginning of this season, with the units. Then the average continued to drop as the units rose.
As the units peaked and then dropped, the average has been recovering.
Units aside, this is a good sign as the closing line comparison has completed the "cycle" when lined up with the units.
But before we start doubling our bets, I want to bring up some technicals in an attempt to see the direction of the units.
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Remember this chart? It showed how we get extra "legs" in whatever direction we are moving after those moving averages cross...
Let's look at current chart.
The line on the right side goes through the point where the moving averages cross and it crosses the line at 2.85 units, and consistent with the metric, the units dropped one more unit to 1.85 units before bouncing.
But let's be weary of that "bounce' we just saw.
I highlighted in yellow two other instances where we had further drops after similar to right now as it tends to happen here.
The other option is that a bounce up pushes through the averages and we see a sideways market of volatility, a similar situation is circled in red on the chart.
So the bad news is that we may not see a sharp rise here in this Fund and may even see a further drop while at best the outlook would be a small rise and sideways market before the next move one way or the other. Notice we may be in that 2-4 unit range, if we're lucky.
Let's see how the next set of plays play out but what I'm saying is there could some volatility ahead, as if we haven't seen some already here, but it may not go directly to the upside.
I know we have only tracked this Fund here since last year but I wanted to put the long chart up, to provide even more context. Looking at the chart, you can see the case to stay in the Fund, even through this near term volatility...
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Here's the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund after week 8 with links to each play and a crude closing line comparison.
This Fund was 6-5, +.53 units this week but struggled against the closer going 5-5-1, only beating it by .05.
There was an error this week as I missed posting the Purdue +17.5, as mentioned after the game started, which turned out to be a winner...
1 Unit Closing Beat BTC Record Date NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund per bet Line Closer? Average 385 0-1 7-Sep STANFORD +3.5 (-115) -1 3 Y 0.5 387 1-1 CAL +14 (-110) 0.91 13.5 Y 0.5 401 1-2 KENNESAW ST +1.5 (-120) -1 3.5 N -2 423 1-3 G WEBB +28 (-120) -1 31 N -3 425 2-3 MAINE +10.5 (-120) 0.83 7.5 Y 3 427 2-4 NC A&T +29.5 (-120) -1 27.5 Y 2 117 2-5 14-Sep MIA (OH) +16 (-105) -1 17 N -1 133 2-6 AKRON +6 (-105) -1 2.5 Y 3.5 147 3-6 UNLV +20 (-105) 0.95 18.5 Y 1.5 171 4-6 OHIO +5.5 (-105) 0.95 4 Y 1.5 225 5-6 WEBER ST +10 (-120) 0.83 7.5 Y 2.5 233 5-7 MISSOURI ST +29 (-120) -1 31.5 N -2.5 339 5-8 21-Sep W MICHIGAN +5.5 (-110) -1 3.5 Y 2 343 5-9 MICHIGAN +3 (+100) -1 3 PUSH 0 361 5-10 KENTUCKY +6 (-102) -1 6 PUSH 0 367 6-10 AUBURN +4 (-105) 0.95 4 PUSH 0 411 7-10 S ILLINOIS +21.5 (-120) 0.83 23 N -1.5 111 8-10 27-Sep ARIZONA ST +5.5 (-105) 0.95 4 Y 1.5 113 9-10 28-Sep N' WESTERN +24 (-105) 0.95 23 Y 1 123 9-11 BUFFALO +2 (-110) -1 2.5 N -0.5 135 9-12 RUTGERS +27.5 (-110) -1 27.5 PUSH 0 143 9-13 UNLV +9.5 (-105) -1 8 Y 1.5 153 10-13 INDIANA +14.5 (-110) 0.91 14 Y 0.5 163 10-14 KANSAS +16 (-105) -1 14.5 Y 1.5 167 10-15 MISS ST +11 (-105) -1 7.5 Y 3.5 187 11-15 UTEP +25.5 (-110) 0.91 26 N -0.5 325 12-15 5-Oct PITT +5 (-107) 0.93 3.5 Y 1.5 337 13-15 V TECH +13.5 (-105) 0.95 14 N -0.5 349 14-15 CAL +18 (-105) 0.95 21 N -3 355 14-16 IOWA +4 (-105) -1 4 PUSH 0 359 14-17 RICE +8.5 (-105) -1 10 N -1.5 361 15-17 N'WESTERN +7 (-110) 0.91 7.5 N -0.5 373 15-18 TCU +4 (-105) -1 3 Y 1 391 15-19 MICHIGAN ST +20 (-111) -1 20 PUSH 0 109 15-20 11-Oct VIRGINIA +3 (-115) -1 2.5 Y 0.5 131 16-20 12-Oct GTECH +18.5 (-105) 0.95 18 Y 0.5 143 17-20 ODU +14.5 (-110) 0.91 16.5 N -2 163 18-20 ARKANSAS +7.5 (-110) 0.91 3.5 Y 4 175 19-20 UNLV +16.5 (-110) 0.91 15 Y 1.5 177 19-21 MICHIGAN ST +10.5 (-110) -1 8 Y 2.5 181 20-21 SJST +4 (-110) 0.91 3 Y 1 205 21-21 WYOMING +4.5 (-105) 0.95 3.5 Y 1 317 21-22 19-Oct DUKE +4 (-105) -1 3.5 Y 0.5 319 22-22 G TECH +18 (-105) 0.95 18.5 N -0.5 333 23-22 COAST CAR +7 (-125) 0.8 7 PUSH 0 339 24-22 TULSA +17.5 (-105) 0.95 16 Y 1.5 353 24-23 NEVADA +21.5 (-105) -1 22.5 N -1 359 24-24 ARIZONA ST +13.5 (-105) -1 16 N -2.5 365 25-24 OREGON ST +11.5 (-105) 0.95 10.5 Y 1 375 26-24 KENTUCKY +25 (-105) 0.95 24 Y 1 385 26-25 ODU +16 (-105) -1 16.5 N -0.5 411 26-26 CHARLOTTE +9 (-102) -1 9.5 N -0.5 421 27-26 MICHIGAN +9 (-107) 0.93 7.5 Y 1.5 27-26 Total -1.22 29-17-7 0.415
Remember, as a crude comparison we want to be better than .5 points against the close and this Fund finished at better than .6 against the close last year.
This year the Fund is averaging .415 against the close but combined with last year, it is still averaging .548 against the close.
We should keep an eye on that closing performance and should expect to see it improve as this Fund turns positive in units.
Here's the unit chart since last year and the Fund has come back from a low of -6.29 for this season...
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Here's the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog ML Fund after week 8 with links to each play and a closing line comparison.
This Fund had 14 plays this week for -2.9 units. It was 7-7 against the closer for -.18 average against it this week.
The haymaker fund also should have had Baylor trigger at +170 this week, but was mistakenly omitted as mentioned before, which was a winner...
With such big moneylines you just never know over the short term how the average comparison will play out. In this case it has been pretty much even with the closer this season.Date NCAAF Visting Dog ML 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 361 7-Sep W KENTUCKY +265 2.65 262 Y 0.03 373 ARKANSAS +230 -1 194 Y 0.36 387 CAL +415 4.15 447 Y 0.32 133 14-Sep AKRON +195 -1 119 Y 0.21 139 E CAROLINA +235 -1 237 N -0.02 189 FLORIDA ST +240 -1 241 N -0.01 307 20-Sep FL INT +275 -1 222 Y 0.53 309 AIR FORCE +260 -1 274 N -0.14 351 21-Sep COLORADO +240 2.4 260 N -0.20 361 KENTUCKY +230 -1 196 Y 0.34 371 S CAROLINA +290 -1 308 N -0.18 375 OK ST +170 -1 241 N -0.71 377 BGSU +290 -1 328 N -0.38 393 LOUISVILLE +265 -1 205 Y 0.60 103 26-Sep NAVY +320 -1 326 N -0.06 111 27-Sep ARIZONA ST +180 1.8 173 Y 0.07 127 28-Sep NC ST +160 -1 212 N -0.52 143 UNLV +310 -1 281 Y 0.29 145 WASH ST +210 -1 188 Y 0.22 167 MISS ST +325 -1 258 Y 0.67 183 ARKANSAS ST +215 2.15 215 PUSH 0.00 201 USC +315 -1 380 N -0.65 203 UCLA +245 -1 138 Y 1.07 309 4-Oct N MEXICO +220 -1 211 Y 0.09 313 5-Oct BC +160 -1 156 Y 0.04 321 BALL ST +184 1.84 152 Y 0.32 325 PITT +175 1.75 151 Y 0.24 337 V TECH +415 4.15 447 N -0.32 347 OREGON ST +190 1.9 163 Y 0.27 353 TULSA +370 -1 351 Y 0.19 355 IOWA +170 -1 174 N -0.04 357 ILLINOIS +425 -1 427 N -0.02 359 RICE +270 -1 318 N -0.48 361 N'WESTERN +230 -1 258 N -0.28 375 VANDY +225 -1 214 Y 0.11 121 12-Oct LOUISVILLE +210 2.1 216 N -0.06 129 NEBRASKA +230 -1 244 N -0.14 133 GA ST +220 2.2 143 Y 0.77 139 HAWAII +340 -1 356 N -0.16 153 MISSISSIPPI +340 -1 369 N -0.29 161 N ILLINOIS +210 2.1 177 Y 0.33 163 ARKANSAS +240 -1 168 Y 0.72 165 T TECH +310 -1 314 N -0.04 167 MIA (OH) +415 -1 376 Y 0.39 177 MICH ST +310 -1 296 Y 0.14 179 FLORIDA +400 -1 450 N -0.50 185 M TENN ST +345 -1 353 N -0.08 189 N TEXAS +170 -1 123 Y 0.47 193 CHARLOTTE +180 -1 195 N -0.15 205 WYOMING +165 -1 154 Y 0.11 307 17-Oct UCLA +290 2.9 159 Y 1.31 309 18-Oct MARSHALL +180 1.8 150 Y 0.30 315 UNLV +425 -1 537 N -1.12 333 19-Oct COAST CAR +195 -1 237 N -0.42 345 KENT +240 -1 253 N -0.13 359 ARIZONA ST +415 -1 533 N -1.18 365 OREGON ST +340 3.4 325 Y 0.15 369 ARIZONA +275 -1 350 N -0.75 371 COLORADO +415 -1 381 Y 0.34 403 S FLORIDA +370 -1 527 N -1.57 411 CHARLOTTE +320 -1 275 Y 0.45 413 M TENN ST +275 -1 228 Y 0.47 417 TEMPLE +220 -1 273 N -0.53 421 MICHIGAN +240 -1 250 Y 0.10 Total -11.71 33-30-1 0.014
Sure, the units have dropped again and the charts show the same. I know this is the first year of this Fund but we are on it this year because of last year's drop. Here's the two year chart...
This chart pattern, for a market function, may not be as bad as it looks. Remember these are haymakers and we endure droughts before the larger moneylines pay out.
So when are we getting the rise? Even with Baylor +170, when combined, this Fund equals nearly half of the NCAAF Family of Funds' losses.
Well, through 64 plays this season, this Fund has 15 losses giving us a win percentage of 23%.
Here are the win percentages and units through the years...
If we remove 2005 we get average percentage of 29 and the median there is 28. It's never closed lower than 24 percent so we could and should have potential for upside here.Year % Units 2018 0.26 -7.00 2017 0.28 4.54 2016 0.33 27.15 2015 0.31 13.86 2014 0.33 30.49 2013 0.27 -3.18 2012 0.24 -18.07 2011 0.30 15.35 2010 0.35 41.83 2009 0.24 -10.01 2008 0.27 1.78 2006 0.26 3.28 2005 0.38 59.98
All it takes is that one week of upsets, and not like 30 point upsets, like Wisky, but some of those games that are more within range on this Funds target circle, to get back many of these units.
As the market rotates away from the Wisky's and Georgia's, we should be able to catch what's next. If not, we could see this venture go well into next year before we see profit...
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Here's the KVB NCAAF Family of Funds Summary of Summaries.
There were 41 plays for week 8 for a loss of -7.38 units...
NCAAF Week 8 Season to Date Funds # Plays Units # Plays Units Totals 3 -1.13 28 -7.59 ATS/ML 7 -0.18 51 -4.32 UPSET Basket 6 -3.7 58 -0.35 Visiting Dog 11 0.53 53 -1.22 Visiting Dog ML 14 -2.9 64 -11.71 Total: 41 -7.38 254 -25.19
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NCAAF Funds...Win/Loss Records
Here are the win/loss records for the Funds that have Spreads and Totals through week 8 this season and combined with last year...
2019...
Again slightly up from the week before, but this time it's very slight...NCAAF Season to Date ATS and Totals Records Win % % + Tie Funds # Plays Units W L P Totals 28 -7.59 10 17 1 0.370 0.357 ATS/ML 51 -4.32 23 26 2 0.469 0.451 UPSET Basket 58 -0.35 Visiting Dog 53 -1.22 27 26 0.509 0.509 Visiting Dog ML 64 -11.71 Total: 254 -25.19 60 69 3 0.465 0.455
Here are the records of the current Funds going back to last year (Note I say current Funds because it does not include the Market Reads Fund that isn't being tracked this year)...
2018-Present...
Some guy in the Think Tank said he didn't think there was anyone at SBR that could hit 55% over 300 plays. Last year it was 57.6% over 314 plays and while this year it's pulled back a bit, I believe he is wrong.2018-Present ATS and Totals Records Win % % + Tie NCAAF Funds W L P Totals 84 79 2 0.515 0.509 ATS/ML 75 59 4 0.560 0.543 UPSET Basket Visiting Dog 79 56 1 0.585 0.581 Visiting Dog ML Total: 238 194 7 0.551 0.542
That poster probably didn't think she was going to get these pulled up...
Comment -
One last thing here.
Here's how it ended last season...
Here's where the Funds were after week 8 last year....NCAAF 2018-19 Season Funds # Plays Units Totals 137 7.58 ATS/ML 92 13.01 UPSET Basket 126 2.5 Visiting Dog 83 18.73 Market Reads 14 -6.02 Total: 452 35.8
We saw a 25 units rise after week 8 last year with the Market Reads Fund going -3 units during that time.NCAAF Week 8 Season to Date Funds # Plays Units # Plays Units Totals 13 -1.32 83 1.48 ATS/ML 8 3.71 58 1.24 UPSET Basket 10 -0.18 66 0.15 Visiting Dog 11 0.67 40 10.39 Market Reads 0 0 11 -3.02 Total: 42 2.88 258 10.24
It would be nice to see that again but clearly the haymaker fund is going to be a defining factor in that.
Still, some things would be nice to see again...
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The KVB NBA Contrarian Fund, but I may combine Funds for NBA, has picked up...
517 13-Oct NY/SA over 214 (-110) 521 OKC +9 (-105)
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sex sellsComment -
I'm out for a while, shit to do and having a terrible time with neuritis. May need to cancel a trip to Tahoe because of it.
Comment
