1. #74481
    Fidel_CashFlow
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  2. #74482
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
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  3. #74483
    KVB
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    The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, itís not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favoriteís part of the equation.

    There will be no moneylines in this Fund and the target circle and number of plays will vary each week as the stacking forecast methods will be enhanced by different factors, many of them determined by the ever changing market. The target circle will be much wider than that of the ATS/ML Fund and as always it is expected to be a grind.

    The factors and thresholds being used in this fund, while they have been known to be volatile within a season (making it ideal for a Total Return Fund) move, have produced double digit ROIís over thousands of plays. Some of these factors, over more than a dozen years, have been positive to the forecast enhancement every year. One major factor has shown recent weakness, and over the years that has been followed by major success, every time.

    From a numbers perspective, next to Totals, the visiting dogs are where itís at in college football and we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund.

    The first plays in the Fund areÖ

    153 LSU +9.5 (-105) over AUBURN

    157 C MICH +14 (-105) over N ILLINOIS

    185 TEXAS ST +10.5 (-105) OVER S ALABAMA

    193 AKRON +21.5 (-110) over NORTHWESTERN

    I have LSU +10 (-105) but didnít post so Iím going with the current 9.5 and hope it doesnít land on a 10 point game as that would create a record keeping headache.



  4. #74484
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    KVB getting destroyed in the comments of smokenjokes MLB contest
    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    ikr

  5. #74485
    KVB
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  6. #74486
    turtledoves
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    introducing the KVB boring analysis fund

    long winded writings that will cure the worst insomnia

  7. #74487
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    introducing the KVB boring analysis fund

    long winded writings that will cure the worst insomnia
    but but but...we expect big things!


  8. #74488
    KVB
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    Let me make up for it by giving some real analysis. I mentioned that it's not always about the road team but could be about the home team's failure...

    Central Michigan +14 over N. Illinois:

    The stacking forecast has N. Illinois winning with 27 points to C Mich's 20 points, but the line is 14! You see, Nilly hasn't scored shit in the last two outings. We have ample evidence over years that teams in this situation tend to get overestimated when they become home and favored. It's a situational component that, when factored into the margin of victory, has an effect on an already decent looking forecast. In all fairness, the public gauge shows Northern Illinois winning 28-20, seemingly mitigating the theory, but not the line. The public gauge is looked at but not used in producing the play.

    Akron +21.5 over Northwestern:

    We have the same situation with Northwestern as bettors may be looking to see their team bounce as well from a rough week. The stacking forecast shows N'Western winning with 38 points to Akron's 16 points but when we factor that situation into the line we see a failure on Northwestern's part here.

    The public gauge shows a 27 point game and confirms the theory behind the numbers. Again the public gauge is not used in any way in making the decisions for this Fund. This Fund seeks predictive behaviors, the public gauge is non-predictive.

    One caveat here. Before this Fund began there were 4 plays that factored in this situation for the home team; those plays went 3-1. I do not expect bets that are in part arrived using this metric to perform at such a high level. There could some volatility but these bets have a near 60% expectation of winning.

    We are exploiting the nature of the bettors when dealing with home teams and favorites here, it's a nature that hasn't changed, perhaps ever.

    So, stick that in your insomnia pipe and smoke it.




  9. #74489
    KVB
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    Both of these lines seem awfully high and part of me doesn't like those bets, sometimes it's those home blowouts that reinforce the very betting mentality we are in part exploiting.

    But this is not a short term Fund, it's not a sprint, this is a grind and a marathon.

    At least it's best to treat this type of forecasting as such.


  10. #74490
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post
    introducing the KVB boring analysis fund

    long winded writings that will cure the worst insomnia
    get fukked, bitch ass bitchlips

    Always wanted to say that to someone

    lul

  11. #74491
    KVB
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    You're up? I almost texted 45 minutes ago but figured that'd be fukked...lol.

    Now it's late.


  12. #74492
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    yeah lol

    was at the shop working

    i got something bad ass to send you

  13. #74493
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    yo , i can just input your credentials into my new phone and shoot you messages from there

    ipad is charging in other room where ole lady sleeping

  14. #74494
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    btw, you even still up ?

  15. #74495
    KVB
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    Still up, sorry, walked away.



    Crashing very soon though.


  16. #74496
    smokenjoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    get fukked, bitch ass bitchlips

    Always wanted to say that to someone

    lul
    Hey. Be nice!!! He's our best fade this year!!!
    He even wrote a book about it.
    "50 fades of grape"

  17. #74497
    turtledoves
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    Lol good one

    wonder when DaWanksta! is gonna stop by

  18. #74498
    turtledoves
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    cashflow sexting pictures of himself again

  19. #74499
    KVB
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    "50 fades of Grape"


  20. #74500
    thechaoz
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    Quote Originally Posted by turtledoves View Post


    i have 1 horizontal 27" 1440p, 1 vertical 24" 1080p, big screen tv ahead to left. monitors are dell ultrasharps. also have a ball jar.

    text looks a little small but you can adjust global zoom to 125% in Windows

    windows snap (Windows Key + Left Arrow, etc) also helps for working on big monitors like a 42". you don't need to expand a window to full screen, you can snap it to sections of the screen. many people who have big monitors like that are not expanding the window to the whole screen
    Only missing beer cans or bourbon bottles.

    What kind of Chron is that?
    Points Awarded:

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  21. #74501
    turtledoves
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    clutter kush

  22. #74502
    turtledoves
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    get fukked, bitch ass bitchlips

    Always wanted to say that to someone

    lul
    liar

  23. #74503
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    you little chickenshits

  24. #74504
    Fidel_CashFlow
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  25. #74505
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    wtf, anyone have a guess s to how this ended up turning out ?






  26. #74506
    Fidel_CashFlow
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  27. #74507
    Fidel_CashFlow
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  28. #74508
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Points Awarded:

    KVB gave Fidel_CashFlow 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  29. #74509
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    KVB gave Fidel_CashFlow 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  30. #74510
    Fidel_CashFlow
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  31. #74511
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Very Graphic footage of Aaron Hernandez suicide

    Watch at your own disrection































  32. #74512
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Fukk u other fukkers then
    he’ll , half of you are on the mother fukking clock anyways

  33. #74513
    KVB
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    At the GIF's and lego man.

  34. #74514
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    ​lol

  35. #74515
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The KVB NCAAF UPSET basket has picked up the following moneylines...

    113 UMASS +165 over FL INT

    131 RUTGERS +140 over KANSAS

    145 BOISE ST +135 over OK ST

    I am looking at Duke over Baylor but can't find a moneyline I like and am also looking at E Mich over Buffalo but market forces may keep us off of that play.

    The NCAAF UPSET Basket is currently up 3.44 units. When it takes a downturn, I will move it into the Total Return Fund. I should have put it in there from the beginning...
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I have added to the NCAAF Upset Basket...

    169 HOUSTON +110 over TEXAS TECH

    179 OREGON ST +155 over NEVADA

    201 USC +145 over TEXAS

    207 FRESNO ST -102 over UCLA

    E MICH continues to elude us as a play in this basket.
    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The NCAAF UPSET Basket adds...

    139 OHIO +135 OVER VIRGINIA
    ...

    It was on the radar and now it's a play for the UPSET Basket...

    177 E MICHIGAN +150 over BUFFALO

    Grinding late.


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