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Added some Totals to the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund, got to keep these things separate.
Ch Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 (-107)MLB [General]
08/30/18 07:35 PM ET
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 8.5 (-108)MLB [General]
08/30/18 10:05 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks vs L.A. Dodgers Under 8 (-115)MLB [General]
08/30/18 10:10 PM ET
It's now time for baskets of bets. The KVB NCAAF OVER Basket is the first basket. There could be quite a few bets each week in this fund. The initial screen for this basket is simply nice weather. People, players, managers, things change year to year, but the effect of weather does not.
Weather is the initial screen. As always the games are handicapped in a stacking percentages fashion and there will also be market analysis triggers to add to the edge building. There will be a wide target circle here and that’s why many bets can be produced. There has been a very good ROI for this basket over the past few years and I hope it continues as this fund seeks safety in numbers.
While each bet is, of course, one unit, the plan is to track this basket, it can be a gauge, and determine a time to for the Total Return Fund to take a position.
Early season stacking forecasts should not do as well as when the market matures but evidence over the years shows the difference isn’t enough to overcome the market analysis of the early season.
There is a lot for me to organize, so I think plays will look less formal or in a spreadsheet.
The first plays for this basket are…
SE-LA/ULMon OVER 74 (-110)
WEB-ST/UTAH OVER 49.5 (-110)
NW-ST/TA&M OVER 64.5 (-110)
Good Luck.
I have another basket to introduce. The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket will have an initial screen of competitive underdogs, primarily on the road. This is a moneyline basket of bets that uses a stacking percentages forecast along with market analyses to determine the appropriate play.
There could be quite a few plays in this basket as well. It will be tracked and again it can be used as a gauge but has had a very decent ROI over the last few years by itself. There will not be large underdogs in this basket as one of the factors will be competitive underdogs. If a competitive underdog is mispriced and is large upset in the market, it won’t fall into this basket, even though it may be a good bet.
Just like the last basket…
While each bet is, of course, one unit, the plan is to track this basket, it can be a gauge, and determine a time to for the Total Return Fund to take a position.
Early season stacking forecasts should not do as well as when the market matures but evidence over the years shows the difference isn’t enough to overcome the market analysis of the early season.
The first plays in this basket of dogs are…
Kennesaw St. +130 over Georgia St.
UC Davis +120 over San Jose St.
Good Luck
So as you can see, I'm separating the bets into their strategies, some that can gauge the market. I think it will be best to graph the results in rotation order, I suppose a screenshot of an excel graph uploaded is the only way to do it.
By the way, Northwestern fell into that category above but I missed the pricing we wanted and many houses have them laying for the moneyline.
Northwestern might win that game, but it won't count here.
Added the Padres to the Contrarian Fund.
Ch Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 (-107)MLB [General]
08/30/18 07:35 PM ET
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 8.5 (-108)MLB [General]
08/30/18 10:05 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks vs L.A. Dodgers Under 8 (-115)MLB [General]
08/30/18 10:10 PM ET
San Diego Padres +144MLB [General]
08/30/18 10:10 PM ET
Last edited by turtledoves; 08-30-18 at 07:09 PM.
haven't been working like a dog anymore lately
The KVB NCAAF UNDER Basket also has an initial screen that is weather based and operates the same way as the Over basket in bet generation.
Again these can be used as a gauge with virtually the same description as the NCAAF Over Basket.
Two plays...
NEW MEX ST/MINN UNDER 49.5 (-108)
Missouri St/Oklahoma St UNDER 73 (-110).
Good Luck.
I will be so busy posting plays there won't be time for analysis...lol. But separating the plays this way offer a start for analysis from the outset.
Fukkin Wake. Win by 6. I had some 6's from before but when I posted 6.5 was what was available and I was buying that too.Originally Posted by KVB
Ok, new Fund.
I am now introducing the KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund.
It's very similar in handicapping to the NCAAF Totals Fund and the first play is Wake Forest -6.5 (-105) over Tulane.
Not sure if I am going to start a thread or just keep these funds in here. There's a bit to track.
Wake wins this game, I don't doubt, I hope they cover too.
Good Luck.
Those fukks, trying to deter us already. Remind us of the importance of getting a good line. I hadn't decided on posting the Fund yet when I bought Wake at first, but from now on plays will be posted as generated.
Fukkin Wake.
The MLB Contrarian Fund through 215 plays at SBR prices and without the Angels bet today, a true mistake that ended up costing money...fawk.
30-Aug CIN +138 -1 CHC/ATL UNDER 8.5 (-107) -1 ARI/LAD UNDER 8 (-115) 0.87 SEA/OAK UNDER 8.5 (-108) 0.93 SD +144 1.44 Thu 1.24 Week 1 3.64 Week 2 4.73 Week 3 -5.88 Week 4 2.15 Week 5 1.32 Week 6 -1.04 Mon 3.09 Tue 0.96 Wed -1.56 Total 8.65
More results. Going to track closing status for multiple reasons here, it's too bad I didn't post this when I picked up 6, would be a difference in my favor all around...
Date NCAAF ATS/ML Fund 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ATS BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average Average 30-Aug WAKE -6.5 (-105) -1 -7.5 Y 1 Total -1 1-0-0 1
For the NCAAF UNDERS Basket I picked up W Kent/Wisc UNDER 52.5 (-105).
Making trades late here.
Results of OVER, UNDER and UPSET Baskets...
Date NCAAF OVER Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC per bet Line Closer? Average 30-Aug SE LA/UL MON OVER 74 (-110) -1 74 PUSH 0 WEB ST/UTAH OVER 49.5 (-110) 0.91 49.5 PUSH 0 NW ST/TEXA&M OVER 64.5 (-110) 0.91 64.5 PUSH 0 Total 0.82 0-0-3 0
Date NCAAF UNDER Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC per bet Line Closer? Average 30-Aug NMexST/MIN UNDER 49.5 (-108) -1 49.5 PUSH 0 SW MO ST/OK ST UNDER 73 (-110) -1 73 PUSH 0 Total -2 0-0-2 0 31-Aug WKENT/WISC UNDER 52.5 (-105) Fri 0
Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 30-Aug KENNESAW ST +130 -1 120 Y 0.10 UC DAVIS +120 1.2 120 PUSH 0.00 Total 0.2 1-0-1 0.05
trade of the day
Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:50 PM.
FB is not a good play for me, too many bullshit risks, I think there are better co's, like Amazon and Apple.
Losing money in stocks because I don't have time to play them.
Have the plays, but backed out of them all getting ready for the Fall. I may have fukked up there.
I picked up one Contrarian Fund play so far, I also got 11.5 at Heritage...
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Under 11 (+110)MLB [General]
08/31/18 08:05 PM ET
So I stop posting the CFL Sharp Forecast at the Monday morning open, and, lo and behold, lines stop moving, for the most part.
lol.
That Under in Wisconsin is in two Funds now...
See what can happen Doves? I am managing Funds here and moving money in and out of them based on performance, short, and long term expectation.
Crazy shit. I think everybody ends up positive in the end.
NCAAF UNDER Basket additions…
FAU/OK UNDER 72 (-105)
INDIANA/FL INT UNDER 57 (-105)
NIU/IOWA UNDER 47.5 (-105)
NICH ST/KANSAS UNDER 57 (-120)
NCAAF OVER Basket plays…
SOUTHERN/TCU OVER 55.5 (-120)
COAST CAR/SC OVER 57 (-105)
WVU/TENN OVER 61.5 (-105)
Added Kent/Illinois UNDER 55.5 (-105) to the UNDER Basket...
146 31-Aug WKENT/WISC UNDER 52.5 (-105) 152 1-Sep FAU/OK UNDER 72 (-105) 166 KENT/ILLINOIS UNDER 55.5 (-105) 170 IND/FL INT UNDER 57 (-105) 172 NIU/IOWA UNDER 47.5 (-105) 278 NICH ST/KANSAS UNDER 57 (-120)
doesn't seem that crazy to me. like that idea, keep up with the changing market
Last edited by turtledoves; 09-02-18 at 05:50 PM.
Contrarian Unders abound...
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Under 11 (+110)MLB [General]
08/31/18 08:05 PM ET
Ch Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Under 8.5 (-108)MLB [General]
08/31/18 07:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians Under 8 (-105)MLB [General]
08/31/18 07:10 PM ET
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 8 (-117)MLB [General]
08/31/18 10:05 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks vs L.A. Dodgers Under 7.5 (-125)MLB [General]
08/31/18 10:10 PM ET
I remember when you ordered that thing, still didn't get it.
Wentworth Chinese gangs holding your shit ransom.
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Added some moneylines to the Contrarian Fund...
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers Under 11 (+110)MLB [General]
08/31/18 08:05 PM ET
Ch Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Under 8.5 (-108)MLB [General]
08/31/18 07:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians Under 8 (-105)MLB [General]
08/31/18 07:10 PM ET
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Under 8 (-117)MLB [General]
08/31/18 10:05 PM ET
Arizona Diamondbacks vs L.A. Dodgers Under 7.5 (-125)MLB [General]
08/31/18 10:10 PM ET
Minnesota Twins +110MLB [General]
08/31/18 08:05 PM ET
CH White Sox +149MLB [General]
08/31/18 08:10 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles +115MLB [General]
08/31/18 08:15 PM ET
San Diego Padres +119MLB [General]
08/31/18 10:10 PM ET
The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...
MID Tenn St. +130 over Vandy.
Good Luck.
Seeing some sharp moves on the Under in San Diego tonight. I bought SD on the moneyline but that Under is another one just outside the target circle that deserves notice.
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turtledoves gave KVB 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.