1. #84176
    Da Manster!
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    being the resident DJ for this forum, Nasher sent me a request via PM to play this song...more than happy to oblige!


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  2. #84177
    darrell74
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    gotta hand it to him, got a sense of humor

  3. #84178
    KVB
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    Organizing my Funds and graphs and realized there is a mistake in tracking for the KVB MLB Visiting Dog Fund from last year.

    This post will serve as the new official link in last year's summary.

    Here's the summary as previously posted, the title is a link to the Fund description and the the "Total" link is to the entire summary...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    52-30-1 Total 18.73 52-16-15 0.692771

    The error is in the BTC columns. Here's the original from Sept 22 of 2018...

    5-3 KANSAS ST +15 (-105) -1 15.5 N 0.5
    6-3 KENT ST +28 (-105) 0.95 28.5 Y 0.5
    7-3 TTECH +13 (-105) 0.95 14.5 Y 1.5
    The last two columns should have two more N's and be negative, not positive, respectively.

    I have corrected the error and here is the new official record from last year...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    153 1-0 15-Sep LSU +9.5 (-105) 0.95 10 N -0.5
    157 2-0 C MICH +14 (-105) 0.95 14 PUSH 0
    185 3-0 TEXAS ST +10.5 (-105) 0.95 9.5 Y 1
    193 4-0 AKRON +21.5 (-110) 0.91 21 Y 0.5
    216 5-0 RHODE ISLAND +9.5 (-110) 0.91 9.5 PUSH 0
    237 5-1 DELAWARE ST +47.5 (-115) -1 47 Y 0.5
    331 5-2 22-Sep N ILLINOIS +10.5 (-105) -1 10 Y 0.5
    363 5-3 KANSAS ST +15 (-105) -1 15.5 N -0.5
    365 6-3 KENT ST +28 (-105) 0.95 28.5 N -0.5
    371 7-3 TTECH +13 (-105) 0.95 14.5 N -1.5
    375 8-3 COAST CAR +3.5 (-105) 0.95 3 Y 0.5
    405 9-3 TEX A&M +24.5 (-105) 0.95 24.5 PUSH 0
    155 9-4 29-Sep TOLEDO +7.5 (-105) -1 10.5 N -3
    169 10-4 S MISS +27 (-105) 0.95 27 PUSH 0
    171 11-4 IOWA ST +10.5 (-105) 0.95 11.5 N -1
    177 12-4 UTEP +10.5 (-105) 0.95 10 Y 0.5
    193 13-4 FLORIDA +8 (-105) 0.95 7 Y 1
    207 13-5 STAN +4.5 (-105) -1 4.5 PUSH 0
    311 14-5 5-Oct UTAH ST +3 (-120) 0.83 0 Y 3
    337 14-6 6-Oct MARYLAND +17.5 (-110) -1 17.5 PUSH 0
    339 14-7 TULANE +7 (+105) -1 7 PUSH 0
    347 15-7 MIA (OH) +3.5 (-105) 0.95 5 N -1.5
    363 16-7 UTAH +5 (-105) 0.95 4 Y 1
    373 17-7 N WESTERN +11.5 (-105) 0.95 10.5 Y 1
    407 18-7 FLORIDA ST +13 (-105) 0.95 14 Y 1
    113 19-7 12-Oct AIR FORCE +10.5 (-110) 0.91 11 Y 0.5
    169 19-8 13-Oct WISC +7.5 (-110) -1 10 N -2.5
    185 20-8 TENNESSEE +18 (-110) 0.91 15.5 Y 2.5
    207 20-9 WYOMING +19.5 (-105) -1 18 Y 1.5
    303 20-10 18-Oct GA ST +14 (-105) -1 13 Y 1
    311 21-10 20-Oct VANDY +11 (-105) 0.95 11 PUSH 0
    313 21-11 CINCY +3.5 (-105) -1 2.5 Y 1
    319 21-12 MARYLAND +10 (-105) -1 10 PUSH 0
    321 22-12 VIRGINIA +7.5 (-110) 0.91 6.5 Y 1
    349 23-12 UTEP +24 (-110) 0.91 21.5 Y 2.5
    393 24-12 UTSA +17.5 (-105) 0.95 15.5 Y 2
    395 25-12 CHARLOTTE +16.5 (+100) 1 15.5 Y 1
    403 25-13 MISS ST +7 (-120) -1 6 Y 1
    405 25-14 USC +7 (-105) -1 7 PUSH 0
    407 26-14 SJST +27.5 (-105) 0.95 25.5 Y 2
    131 27-14 26-Oct LA TECH +3.5 (-105) 0.95 3.5 PUSH 0
    129 27-15 27-Oct C MICH +5.5 (-105) -1 4.5 Y 1
    135 27-16 ILLINOIS +17 (+100) -1 16.5 Y 0.5
    171 28-16 TULANE +3 (-105) 0.95 -1.5 Y 4.5
    173 28-17 TEXAS A&M +3 (-105) -1 0 Y 3
    187 28-18 PURDUE +2 (-105) -1 -2.5 Y 4.5
    315 29-18 2-Nov PITT +7.5 (-105) 0.95 7 Y 0.5
    331 29-19 3-Nov NAVY +11.5 (-105) -1 12 N -0.5
    359 30-19 C MICH +13.5 (-105) 0.95 15 N -0.5
    371 30-20 SJST +13.5 (-105) -1 17 N -3.5
    385 31-20 STANFORD +9.5 (-105) 0.95 9.5 PUSH 0
    389 32-20 TEXAS A&M +5 (-105) 0.95 3.5 Y 1.5
    399 33-20 KANSAS ST +8 (-110) 0.91 10 N -2
    405 33-21 PENN ST +13.5 (-105) -1 13 Y 0.5
    415 33-22 UTSA +21.5 (-103) -1 21.5 PUSH 0
    101 33-23 6-Nov KENT ST +20.5 (-105) -1 17 Y 3.5
    141 34-23 10-Nov KANSAS +12 (-105) 0.95 9.5 Y 2.5
    143 34-24 AKRON +13 (-105) -1 11.5 Y 1.5
    153 35-24 N'WESTERN +10 (-105) 0.95 10.5 N -0.5
    165 35-25 CHARLOTTE +14.5 (-110) -1 13 Y 1.5
    169 36-25 BG +7 (-110) 0.91 7.5 N -0.5
    179 36-26 WISC +10 (-105) -1 7.5 Y 2.5
    195 37-26 CAL +5 (-105) 0.95 4.5 Y 0.5
    211 38-26 RICE +25 (-110) 0.91 24 Y 1
    217 39-26 S MISS +11.5 (-105) 0.95 13.5 N -2
    305 40-26 14-Nov MIA (OH) +6.5 (-105) 0.95 6 Y 0.5
    329 41-26 17-Nov N'WESTERN +3 (-110) 0.91 3 PUSH 0
    347 42-26 M TENN ST +14.5 (-105) 0.95 16 Y 1.5
    371 43-26 UTSA +24 (-105) 0.95 27.5 N -3.5
    387 43-27 ARKANSAS +19.5 (-110) -1 23 N -3.5
    393 44-27 BG +7 (-110) 0.91 6 Y 1
    407 45-27 TEXAS ST +23.5 (-105) 0.95 22.5 Y 1
    413 45-28 UTEP +7.5 (-110) -1 6.5 Y 1
    417 45-29 IOWA ST +3 (-110) -1 1.5 Y 1.5
    421 46-29 SDSU +15 (-105) 0.95 10 Y 5
    145 46-30 24-Nov PITT +4.5 (-110) -1 5.5 N -1
    153 47-30 RUTGERS +28 (-110) 0.91 24.5 Y 3.5
    167 48-30 WAKE +12.5 (-110) 0.91 10 Y 2.5
    179 49-30 N MEX ST +9 (-110) 0.91 7 Y 2
    185 49-30-1 TROY +11 (-105) 0 11 PUSH 0
    191 50-30-1 COLO +12.5 (-105) 0.95 10.5 Y 2
    207 51-30-1 KANSAS ST +14 (-110) 0.91 10.5 Y 3.5
    209 52-30-1 LSU +3.5 (-105) 0.95 3 Y 0.5
    52-30-1 Total 18.73 50-18-15 0.63253

    Sorry about this, but the reason I am tracking is to make graphing points of some of these functions and straight reporting is essential.

    This error happened on Sept 22 of last year, thanks for helping catch the error, fukkos.

    Last edited by KVB; 08-29-19 at 12:24 AM.

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  4. #84179
    KVB
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    It's not like I didn't predict the downturn here, really missing that 3 units from Sunday now.

    The Fund has lost 6 straight plays and 9 out of the last 10. The incredible run and the all that quiet sideways charting has given way to volatility and a drop. I timed a unit increase decrease well here.

    Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 571 plays...

    953 28-Aug PIT +137 -1
    958 CHC/NYM UNDER 7.5 (-112) -1
    964 DET +183 -1
    978 COL +163 -1
    Wed -4
    Weeks 1-5 -1.32
    Weeks 6-10 -1.23
    Weeks 11-15 -4.9
    Weeks 16-20 6.19
    Week 21 4.49
    Week 22 0.58
    Mon -3
    Tue -0.78
    Total -3.97

    Still on the bigger unit in the RL Fund at it's gone negative, hoping it climbs back.

    Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund through 97 plays, after losing 4 straight...

    917 27-Aug TB +1.5 (-125) -1
    924 SEA +1.5 (+105) -1
    962 28-Aug SEA +1.5 (+140) -1
    967 TB +1.5 (-105) -1
    Week 23 -4
    Weeks 1-5 -4.92
    Weeks 6-10 -4.59
    Weeks 11-15 4.86
    Weeks 16-20 -4.55
    Week 21 -1.13
    Week 22 3.21
    Total -11.12

    Quite the slide this week all around.

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  5. #84180
    Da Manster!
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    Shari just PM'ed me and made a song request!...anything for you my dear!...


  6. #84181
    Da Manster!
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  7. #84182
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeatTheJerk View Post
    ...
    No Jerky, it was a good question and I saw it, just hadn't gotten that far yet then got a little busy so I waited until the end of today.

    571 Total play and 183 of them are Totals. Getting killed by the UNDERs there...

    KVB MLB Contrarian Fund TOTALS performance:
    28-Aug 1 Unit
    per bet Wins Loss Push Cancel Total
    OVER 4.83 35 28 1 1 65
    UNDER -11 51 59 5 3 118
    Total -6.17 86 87 6 4 183

    That leaves 388 moneyline plays that are up +2.2 units. Remember, the Fund just loss 8 of it's last 9 moneyline bets.

    Tragedy.

    28-Aug Plays Units
    Overall 571 -3.97
    Totals 183 -6.17
    ML's 388 2.2

    I think you asked what % were moneyline dogs and it's almost all of them, very few favorites are getting bought here and those a that are are line -108.

    After a good run, really dropped some moneyline units recently in another shakeout, the wave came crashing down...

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  8. #84183
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

    133 29-Aug UCLA +140
    137 FL INT +135
    147 30-Aug UTAH ST +150
    193 31-Aug SMU +140

    This is value investing...
    The NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

    281 31-Aug ILLINOIS ST +155
    Football is upon us.


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  9. #84184
    KVB
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    The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

    913 29-Aug OAK/KC OVER 10 (-115)


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  10. #84185
    KVB
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    The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

    Record Date NCAAF ATS/ML Fund
    ATS
    141 29-Aug KENT ST +24.5 (-105)
    144 BYU +6.5 (-105)
    235 S DAKOTA ST +15.5 (-110)


    The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

    Record Date NCAAF Totals Fund
    136 29-Aug G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)
    158 PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)

    Links to the Fund descriptions are there and I'll get into them more when I have time.



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  11. #84186
    KVB
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    The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added....

    916 TB/HOU UNDER 9 (+100)

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  12. #84187
    KVB
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    The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

    915 TB +1.5 (+115)


    On mobile but wanted to get this in on the jump from 110 to 115. Trying to avoid the RL sweep in this series.

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  13. #84188
    KVB
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  14. #84189
    KVB
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    Let's quickly go over the mainstay NCAAF Funds then get to the market functions.

    Here's the original although not very descriptive KVB NCAAF Totals Fund...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...the KVB NCAAF Totals Fund. This Fund will track NCAA Football Total plays generated using a blend of two methods. First, the games will be handicapped with a stacking percentages forecast and that will overlay a market analysis that includes regressions and can often take a contrarian form. There will be triggers to plays, but they won’t always be bought at the open. There will often be time for the market to mature, providing more information to develop a play, which can result in better or worse numbers...
    It does explain why I am not always hitting openers in this Fund. Here's last year's performance...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NCAAF Totals Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    74-62-1 Total 7.58 80-31-26 0.583942

    Here's the units chart in order of date and rotation...



    Here's the running avg in it's performance against the closing line.

    At any point on the line, it is the avg discrepancy against the close season to date. So notice the first play of the season didn't beat the close, it lost by 2.5 points. The second game beat the close by 4 points , giving the avg of .75 and as the season progresses the chart stabilizes...



    In the SBR comparison I don't really use the prices and that's why I called the closing line comparison "crude" but as you can see, if we can avg. more than half a point then the metric here, even though I call it crude, is very usable. I'm not putting my value of some of these numbers out there.

    The reason I posted all these is so that we can combine the charts and have more occurrences to see how we are doing against the close, and possibly predict when to up the stake.

    Excited for this year, expect the Totals to provide winners, as usual, and I'll try to post them as soon as they are made to try to beat line movement as these will move quite a bit.

    The first two plays were already posted...

    136 29-Aug G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)
    158 PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)



    Last edited by KVB; 08-29-19 at 06:04 PM. Reason: Added a link last years "Total" for reference.

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  15. #84190
    KVB
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    The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund follows the same description as the Totals Fund and that's pretty much all the Title link in the summary tells you.

    Here's last year's performance, including that crude closing line comparison...

    Record Date NCAAF ATS/ML Fund 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ATS BTC ML
    ATS per bet Line Closer? Average Average
    52-33-2 Total 13.01 39-23-28 0.362069 0.13

    There were actually only 3 moneylines made all season long, in the first two weeks, and they all lost.

    Here's the season chart...



    Here's the running avg of the Fund's performance against the closing line...



    We'll add to this chart as well as things move forward. Interesting how as the the Fund was winning units, it's avg against the close was dropping.

    Expect to win this year again with this Fund, it can be a tough one and sometimes catches the market on the move so again I'll try to get those plays posted as soon as possible after making them.

    The Totals and ATS/ML are not what I consider the market functions, but the UPSET Basket, Visiting Dog Fund, and a larger upset Fund that I may introduce to serve as functions, just part of the natural give a take of the market and as we build those charts, we can see some more value.

    This was to show last year's ATS/ML Fund activity and for this and the Totals Fund we'll probably get more value out of the running avg closing line chart.

    Here are the current KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund plays...

    141 29-Aug KENT ST +24.5 (-105)
    144 BYU +6.5 (-105)
    235 S DAKOTA ST +15.5 (-110)



    Last edited by KVB; 08-29-19 at 06:05 PM. Reason: Same, added a link to the Total

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  16. #84191
    KVB
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    Damn, might have to sell back Illinois St, might have jumped the gun in the UPSET basket there.

    The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

    908 29-Aug ARI +174



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  17. #84192
    KVB
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    Doves, are you in the house?...

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  18. #84193
    KVB
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    Here's the original description to the NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund seeks to use a stacking percentages forecast that is enhanced by both market analysis and situational factors that allow adjustments to the forecast. Some of those adjustments can be sizeable and a bet can be triggered as the adjusted prediction falls within the offered spread. Further, itís not always about the visiting dog, it can be about failure on the home favoriteís part of the equation.

    There will be no moneylines in this Fund and the target circle and number of plays will vary each week as the stacking forecast methods will be enhanced by different factors, many of them determined by the ever changing market. The target circle will be much wider than that of the ATS/ML Fund and as always it is expected to be a grind.

    The factors and thresholds being used in this fund, while they have been known to be volatile within a season (making it ideal for a Total Return Fund) move, have produced double digit ROIís over thousands of plays. Some of these factors, over more than a dozen years, have been positive to the forecast enhancement every year. One major factor has shown recent weakness, and over the years that has been followed by major success, every time.

    From a numbers perspective, next to Totals, the visiting dogs are where itís at in college football and we expect big things from the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund...
    Here's last year's performance...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    52-30-1 Total 18.73 50-18-15 0.63253

    Here's the season chart...



    Here's the running avg of the Fund's performance against the close...



    This was the best performing Fund last year and had the best results against the close. This is essentially a market function year in and year out but it ran really hot this last year. Instead of going in depth with the charts, I want to save that for the UPSET Basket.

    Then we'll look at a new Upset Fund, and it's chart, to see what we have.

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  19. #84194
    dlowilly
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Let's quickly go over the mainstay NCAAF Funds then get to the market functions.

    Here's the original although not very descriptive KVB NCAAF Totals Fund...


    It does explain why I am not always hitting openers in this Fund. Here's last year's performance...

    1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
    Record Date NCAAF Totals Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
    74-62-1 Total 7.58 80-31-26 0.583942

    Here's the units chart in order of date and rotation...



    Here's the running avg in it's performance against the closing line.

    At any point on the line, it is the avg discrepancy against the close season to date. So notice the first play of the season didn't beat the close, it lost by 2.5 points. The second game beat the close by 4 points , giving the avg of .75 and as the season progresses the chart stabilizes...



    In the SBR comparison I don't really use the prices and that's why I called the closing line comparison "crude" but as you can see, if we can avg. more than half a point then the metric here, even though I call it crude, is very usable. I'm not putting my value of some of these numbers out there.

    The reason I posted all these is so that we can combine the charts and have more occurrences to see how we are doing against the close, and possibly predict when to up the stake.

    Excited for this year, expect the Totals to provide winners, as usual, and I'll try to post them as soon as they are made to try to beat line movement as these will move quite a bit.

    The first two plays were already posted...

    136 29-Aug G TECH/CLEMSON UNDER 61.5 (-105)
    158 PURDUE/NEVADA UNDER 58.5 (-105)



    Any chick who has a Marilyn Monroe tattoo is baaaaaaaad news

    Hit it and quit it

  20. #84195
    DiggityDaggityDo
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  21. #84196
    DiggityDaggityDo
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  22. #84197
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post
    Right (meaning the left, larger breast).

    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: DiggityDaggityDo

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  23. #84198
    KVB
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  24. #84199
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    175 pts

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  25. #84200
    KVB
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    The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

    953 NYM +138

    957 CIN +125

    962 ARI +110

    963 SD +120

    976 KC -105

    978 LAA +113

    979 CHW +187

    Good Luck.

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  26. #84201
    DiggityDaggityDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

    953 NYM +138

    957 CIN +125

    962 ARI +110

    963 SD +120

    976 KC -105

    978 LAA +113

    979 CHW +187

    Good Luck.

    Action Jackson
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  27. #84202
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  28. #84203
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,556
    Betpoints: 2834

    The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

    968 30-Aug TOR +1.5 (+120)
    979 CHW +1.5 (+100)

    As we head into the last hour before these games close, we could see a better line. These numbers are good enough and I have to head out again. So I picked them up now.

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


  29. #84204
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,556
    Betpoints: 2834

    The KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund has picked up...

    150 30-Aug S FLORIDA +10.5 (-105)

    It's got that contrarian hint to it and I like how this developed in the marketplace.



    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


  30. #84205
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,556
    Betpoints: 2834

    Check this out guys...

    turtledoves, aka cashout ken, recorded a rap song, produced by Fidel_CashFlow, aka youngjoseph21.

    They were in the studio forever, but produced a real winner!!!!

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


  31. #84206
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,556
    Betpoints: 2834

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


  32. #84207
    DiggityDaggityDo
    DiggityDaggityDo's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-30-08
    Posts: 103,362
    Betpoints: 21324

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Check this out guys...

    turtledoves, aka cashout ken, recorded a rap song, produced by Fidel_CashFlow, aka youngjoseph21.

    They were in the studio forever, but produced a real winner!!!!

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 01/17/2022


  33. #84208
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,556
    Betpoints: 2834

    Quote Originally Posted by DiggityDaggityDo View Post

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


  34. #84209
    DiggityDaggityDo
    DiggityDaggityDo's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-30-08
    Posts: 103,362
    Betpoints: 21324

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 01/17/2022


  35. #84210
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,556
    Betpoints: 2834

    Youtube was on autoplay in the background and in between method man songs that song popped up as an ad.

    Someone not only paid to make it, they paid to get it exposure.

    There are 3 youtube comments below that video, DDD.

    They are...

    Adrian Juarez said just 3 weeks ago...

    That beat was flame not gone lie
    A week later Nicholas was like...

    needed this song right now
    anthony Richardson is much more succinct...

    Fire

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


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