MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Thursday, July 30)
I went 0-for-3 on my home run picks Wednesday - the first time that's happened all season - but I'm still profitable on the year. My MLB home run predictions today look to bounce back with Shohei Ohtani, Manny Machado, and Austin Riley on a 10-game Thursday slate.
My MLB home run picks target these hitters because they should be able to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups today.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 30
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+204 via DraftKings) | 0.98u β 2u | Ohtani has a .683 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Woo throws 61% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Manny Machado to homer (+300 via FanDuel) | 0.67u β 2u | Ray's most-used pitch vs. RHH is his fastball, and Machado owns a .569 xSLG vs. fastballs. |
| Austin Riley to homer (+425 via BetMGM) | 0.47u β 2u | Riley's best pitch to hit is the fastball, which Irvin throws 65% of the time vs. RHH. |
Total wagered: 2.12 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds tonight
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+204)
We cashed on Ohtani (+220) Tuesday, and while his odds are shorter today, I believe this is an even better bet.
Ohtani has a .683 xSLG against fastballs, which Bryan Woo throws 61% of the time against left-handed hitters. While he has just 23 homers this season, Ohtani ranks fifth in Brls/PA% (10.3), so the underlying metrics suggest he's still a strong bet to hit for power moving forward.
The Dodgers' two-way star already has one home run against Woo in six career at-bats. Ohtani (+204) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV, MLB Network
📡 SBR Edge: Home Is Where the Homers Are
Ohtani has homered in five of his last eight games at Dodger Stadium.
π₯ More home run predictions tonight
Home run pick: Manny Machado (+300)
After a slow start to the season, Machado has been seeing the ball well this month, slashing .307/.392/.580 in July. He has homered four times over his last nine games and has a favorable pitching matchup today.
Robbie Ray throws fastballs 50% of the time against right-handed hitters, and Machado has a .569 xSLG against the pitch. With comfortable temperatures and just a light breeze in San Diego today, look for Machado to send one into the stands. Machado to homer (+300) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Austin Riley (+425)
While Riley is slugging a career-low .344 this season, his pitching matchup today is a great opportunity to get back on track.
He faces Jake Irvin, who throws fastballs 65% of the time against right-handed hitters - and that's Riley's best pitch to hit. He has a .416 xSLG against fastballs, and nine of his 11 home runs this season have come on that pitch.
He's homered four times over his last 10 home games, so we know he's still comfortable at Truist Park. Riley to homer (+425) at BetMGM is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
ποΈ Most-bet home run props today
| Rank | Player Prop | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Junior Caminero to hit 1+ home runs | +240 | 29.41% |
| 2 | Bryan Reynolds to hit 1+ home runs | +390 | 20.41% |
| 3 | Shohei Ohtani to hit 1+ home runs | +200 | 33.33% |
| 4 | James Wood to hit 1+ home runs | +270 | 27.03% |
🤑 More MLB picks for Thursday
Looking for more? Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today and his best strikeout props today.
π Best home run parlay picks tonight
💵 Best MLB home run parlay tonight
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Manny Machado to homer
- Austin Riley to homer
Best odds: +5900 via FanDuel
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24-2 | +0.21 units β | 0.7% β |
| Player props | 6-16-1 | +1.17 units β | 7.2% β |
| Game props | 2-2 | -0.78 units β | -9.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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