Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Jefferson has only scored twice this season, but both of those passes came from JJ McCarthy. Additionally, since McCarthy's return from injury, Jefferson has been targeted at least nine times in all three games.

Jones has topped 50 yards in just two of six games this season. He's recorded more than nine carries just once, and against a defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry, he won't get enough touches to hit this Over.

Love has faced five top 20 pass defenses this season, and he's only topped 188 yards once. The Vikings rank seventh in pass defense, allowing just 190.5 yards per game.

Minnesota may have made a huge mistake letting Sam Darnold walk to make room for J.J. McCarthy. Among 35 quarterbacks with five or more starts this season, McCarthy owns the lowest Total QBR (27), worst completion percentage (53%), the highest interception percentage (6.0%), the worst touchdown-to-interception ratio (6-8), and the second-worst off-target percentage (22%). 

The Packers are seemingly losing their best skill position players each week. Tight end Tucker Kraft is already out with a season-ending injury, and now leading rusher Josh Jacobs is dealing with a knee injury.

Jacobs has accounted for 57% of the team’s rushing yards and all but one of the team’s rushing touchdowns. With Green Bay ranking 23rd in Run Block Win Rate, Emanuel Wilson and the fellow backup running backs may not be able to overcome that. 

This is still a Minnesota team that won at Detroit three games ago, while Green Bay has head-scratching losses at Cleveland and at home to Carolina.

It brings me no pleasure to bet on J.J. McCarthy after his brutal showing last week, but the Vikings still nearly won thanks to their playmaking defense. The Packers have a nasty habit of hanging around with lesser competition, which I expect to continue against a familiar foe.

The Colts have allowed 38% of their targets faced to come against slot receivers, the third-highest of all NFL defenses. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce leads the team in routes run from the slot, and has been on fire with 90 or more receiving yards in two of the last three games. 

Kelce has paid off that usage with a touchdown in each of those 90-yard games, but he should see plenty of red zone targets regardless of how high he runs his receiving yard total.

Last week against the Broncos, Patrick  Mahomes went 1-for-9 with an interception on passes of at least 15 yards downfield. While that one completion went for 61 yards, it does not bode well that Mahomes has completed just 42.1% of his passes of 15-plus air yards on the season (18th-best among qualified quarterbacks).

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has thrown four interceptions over the last two games, after beginning the season with just three picks over the first eight.

The Colts' white-hot start was watered down in the two weeks before a bye, but Indianapolis should give Kansas City issues after a week off. This is a tough matchup for the Chiefs that has upset alert written all over it.

The Bengals are absolutely putrid on defense, they bring a whole new definition to the word "stink." Their red-zone defense is at the top of the garbage pile, too. That's where Diggs works his magic and does the majority of his damage. Giving up touchdowns at a 68% rate when opponents are inside the 20, bank on Drake Maye's WR1 to hit pay dirt.  

Hunter Henry, and all Patriots pass catchers, have a great chance to score a touchdown against a Bengals defense that has allowed a league-worst 25 passing touchdowns.

Henry has five games with at least five targets, and should be peppered with more against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed the most yards and receiving touchdowns (12) to tight ends this season. Thus, I am expecting Henry to build off his five end zone targets that ranks fifth-most among all tight ends.

Maye has turned in an NFL-high seven games with a 70% completion percentage or better, and has thrown for 200-plus yards in every game. He faces a Bengals defense that has allowed 27 or more points in nine consecutive games, tied for the longest such streak in NFL history.

Higgins has seen eight or more targets in four of the last five games, and his five receiving touchdowns since Week 7 are the second-most among wide receivers. 

The issue this week is that Higgins is likely to be shadowed by New England’s Christian Gonzalez, who has not allowed a touchdown as the nearest defender this season. Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel will likely roll more coverage towards Higgins without having to worry about Chase, so him finishing with five or fewer receptions is a great possibility.

I'd be inclined to wait until later in the week to see if anyone gets tempted by the Bengals as big 'dogs. It wouldn't be me, though, as I'm too smitten with Drake Maye and Co. against a Cincinnati team that knows its season is effectively over.

Pittsburgh owns the worst pass defense in football (yes, even worse than the Cincinnati Bengals, which grabs a ton of the headlines), coughing up 261 yards through the air per game. While they do stiffen up in the red zone, Odunze should see the necessary volume inside the 20 to give us the best chance to score here

Williams is ready to feast against the Pittsburgh Steelers, whose secondary has been getting torched lately. The Steelers are coughing up 261.7 passing yards per game, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Williams, for his part, has gone over this number five times this season. In a rivalry game against the Steelers, I see him having some success.

I'm awfully surprised to see this line sitting at 3 even with Aaron Rodgers seeming unlikely to play next Sunday at Soldier Field. The Bears aren't perfect, but they're still 7-3 with similar roster talent to the Steelers - this feels like a bargain at home.

Only Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews have more red-zone opportunities over the past four weeks than Mitchell. He's yet to turn his six looks into points, but that could change on Sunday in a potential blowout.

Baltimore backup RB Keaton Mitchell has earned at least four rushing attempts in four straight contests. He's averaging 29 yards per game during that stretch, clearing this prop three times.

Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews has only had 32 or more receiving yards in three different games this season. I'll bet against it happening on Sunday when the Ravens should roll to an easy win.

The Jets are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends, while Mark Andrews has scored four touchdowns in games with Jackson as the starting quarterback, and his three receiving scores since Week 9 are tied for the most among all tight ends. 

I've been buying Ravens stock ever since their 1-5 start, but even this is too rich for me against a frisky Jets team whose eight losses have come by just over eight points per game. I don't think New York wins, but it could offer intrigue into the fourth.

Jameson Williams has scored a touchdown in four of his previous five contests. I like his chances of staying hot in a game that Detroit should roll to a comfortable win.

Jameson Williams has always had big-play ability; now he's getting more usage. Williams has caught at least four passes in four of his previous five outings. He's cleared this prop in three straight games.

Assuming David Montgomery is used more as a runner on Sunday, I don't see a need for him as a receiver. He's recorded multiple catches in four of his 10 games thus far, failing to clear this line in consecutive weeks.

Jared Goff’s 21 passing touchdowns are tied for the second-most in the league. While his Total QBR of 9.0 ranks 29th when under pressure, New York generates sacks and pressure at a below average rate. In addition, Goff has a 30-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio against man coverage since the start of last season, and the Giants deploy man coverage at the league’s highest rate.

The Eagles completely embarrassed what has otherwise been a prolific Lions offense this season. The Giants have a solid pass rush but not much else; expect a motivated Detroit side to take advantage.

Kenneth Walker III is coming off a game with his first goal-line rushing touchdown since Week 3. But Walker has seen several more opportunities of late, following up a season-low 10 carries in back-to-back games with at least 14 rushing attempts in three of the last four.

Walker faces a Titans defense that has allowed the third-most touchdowns to running backs (14), and the second-most rushing touchdowns overall (15). But Walker’s versatility is the biggest reason for making him my best Seahawks vs. Titans touchdown scorer bet, as he has six receptions in the last three games, after recording five total in the previous six. 

Cam Ward has been sacked an NFL-high 41 times, and Seattle’s fierce pass rush that entered last week with the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL should force the ball out of Ward’s hand quickly.

Okonkwo has three-plus receptions in two of the last three games, and four of the previous six.

Seattle was always one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, but will likely get back to that ground-and-pound approach to slowly build up Darnold’s confidence. 

Darnold completed just five of 11 passes for 34 yards and three interceptions when pressured last week (he was pressured on 27% of dropbacks). While Tennessee’s pass rush is nowhere near as feared as the Rams’, a more run-heavy attack combined with the likelihood of game script not needing Seattle to throw makes this wager a great value play.

Seattle's offense is better than it showed last week against a division rival, but this still feels like a big ask against the Titans, who have hung around against much better teams already.

Tuten has averaged 10.0 touches per game over the last three games, which is a huge increase in usage from his 5.4 touches per game through the first seven.

Tuten is coming off season-highs in snaps, carries, and rushing yards last week, and paid that usage off with a four-yard first quarter touchdown plunge.

The Jaguars improved to 3-0 against a competitive AFC West division and are coming off their biggest win (29 points) since 2017. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 1-7 in their last eight games after starting 2-0, and just committed 17 penalties in their last game (the team’s most in the Super Bowl era).

Despite all of that, Jacksonville is a 2.5-point road favorite in this game, which has the scent of a very fishy line.

I don't want to overreact to the Jaguars' dismantling of the Chargers last week, though I was already high on Jacksonville before its recent swoon. I expect more of what we saw most recently against the overmatched Cardinals.

All three of Brock Bowers' touchdowns this year came in an overtime loss to Jacksonville three weeks ago. So it's not like the Raiders' tight end is on a TD heater.

However, this week he faces a Browns defense that has given up 16 passing scores, with five going to tight ends who aren't nearly as skilled as Bowers.

Shedeur Sanders was awful in his NFL debut last week, going 4-for-16 after taking over for fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel. Even if Sanders completes 55% of his passes against the Raiders — which is a stretch — he'd need to throw 29 times to get to 16 completions.

No way do the Browns let Sanders put the ball in the air that often, even against a below-average Raiders secondary.

Cleveland rookie Quinshon Judkins has eclipsed 20 carries in three of his last seven games and averaged nearly 18.5 carries in his last eight contests (and that includes 9- and 12-carry efforts in lopsided losses at New England and Pittburgh).

With shaky Shedeur Sanders making his first NFL start, the Browns would be nuts not to put the ball in Judkins' hands a lot in what is actually a winnable game.

There's a reason Sanders opened fourth on the depth chart in training camp, and while he's drawing his first start this weekend out of necessity - Sanders and Gabriel are the only two quarterbacks on the active roster - the fifth-round pick hasn't demonstrated that he's ready for a heavy workload at this point in his career.

I expect Cleveland's elite defense to keep this game close, which should allow the Browns' run game to remain a factor. I also highly doubt head coach Kevin Stefanski will even let Sanders drop back 29 times after last week's disastrous showing.

If Shedeur Sanders steps anywhere near the field next Sunday, this might be one of my biggest bets of the season. The Raiders are no contender, but they're competent on both sides of the ball, which is too generous to say about the Browns offense right now.

Philadelphia has allowed fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games against NFC contenders (Packers and Lions). But it is also playing with fire, winning six of the eight games in which it has been outgained.

The Eagles are a flawed offensive team. They rank 24th in yards per play (5.1), 25th in yards per game (300.1), tied for 17th in explosive plays (60), and have the league’s worst 3-and-punt rate (31%). 

How could you not walk away impressed with what we saw from Philly's defense on Sunday night? The offense has the talent but lacks the rhythm; it shouldn't matter against the Cowboys' porous defense and inconsistent offense.

This market could be in flux this week depending on the status of Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. I'm not sure how much it'll matter with Kirk Cousins stepping in and Bijan Robinson carrying most of the load, anyway. If Atlanta's pass rush can rattle Tyler Shough, that should be enough to win it.

Davante Adams has recorded six of his NFL-best 10 receiving touchdowns in the first half. Each of those six early scores came in the last eight contests.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have allowed 16 passing TDs this season, including 11 in the first half — and four in just the last two weeks.

Since Week 3, only four running backs have topped 44 rushing yards against the Rams. Their names: Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Kenneth Walker III.

Bucs running back Sean Tucker has been solid in place of injured starter Bucky Irving, but he's been a career backup for a reason: He isn't in the same league as Henry, Taylor, McCaffrey and Walker.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had a season-low 130 passing yards in last week's narrow win over the Seahawks. Before that, though, he had 281 yards against the Saints and 280 against San Francisco.

Meanwhile, three of the last six quarterbacks to face Tampa Bay have cleared 315 yards, with the Bucs allowing 296.7 air yards per game during this stretch.

The Rams defense has been on fire this season, ranking second in points per game allowed (17.2), first in Efficiency (72.2), tied for second in takeaways (18), and first in touchdowns allowed (16). Los Angeles is also stingy in the red zone, allowing the second-fewest percentage of touchdowns on opponents’ red zone trips (44%).

Meanwhile, this is a bad matchup for a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards per game since Week 6. It also has had difficulty preventing explosive plays, allowing 37 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season (t-29th).

The Buccaneers are allowing 11.6 yards per reception, third-most in the league. Nacua has been targeted at least eight times in all but two games this season. He'll catch plenty of passes for plenty of yards against a defense allowing opponents to complete 65.6% of passes.

The Rams have won five consecutive games, with four of those wins coming by double digits. The Buccaneers have lost three of four, and two of those losses are by at least 12.

The Rams are operating as a well-oiled machine in all three phases but especially on offense behind MVP favorite Matthew Stafford. The Bucs' defense couldn't stop a nosebleed last week, which concerns me against a Sean McVay-coached unit on home turf.

The Rams have the second-ranked scoring defense, and they have held four of their last five opponents to 19 or fewer. The Buccaneers have scored just nine touchdowns in their last four games.

The Panthers are averaging just 18.8 points per game, but they rank in the top 10 in time of possession. Three consecutive 49ers' games have featured at least 58 points, but the 49ers' defense is still only allowing 22.9 points per game entering a great matchup.

The Panthers strike when you least expect it, and this seems like a spot for Bryce Young and Co. to carry momentum from last week's OT thriller and challenge one of the legacy contenders in the NFC. I like Carolina to keep it close at the very least.