NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 9: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

Underdogs have cooled off against the spread in recent weeks, but we still have a few that we think will pull off victories in Week 9.

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 30, 2024 11:06 AM EDT • 5 min read

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb rushes as we make our best Week 9 NFL upset picks. — Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb rushes for yards during the first half of an NFL football game. Photo by: Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

Five NFL underdogs won outright last week, which included upsets of two of the six biggest favorites of the week: the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets.

NFL underdogs covered the spread at a 57% clip through the first four weeks but were just 35% ATS in Weeks 5-7 (they went 8-8 ATS in Week 8)
Baltimore’s only two losses this year have come when it has been a -330 moneyline favorite or higher in losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns
Six of Week 9’s 15 games have point spreads of a field goal or lower

Our NFL upset picks went 2-1 last week, resulting in profits of +1.75 units. As we continue our Week 9 NFL predictions, we aim to keep that momentum going with our Week 9 NFL upset picks, which include one home underdog and two road dogs, one of which is facing a one-win team.

NFL underdogs to back: Week 9

NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Cowboys (+125 via bet365) at Falcons ⭐⭐⭐
Browns (+110 via BetMGM) vs. Chargers ⭐⭐⭐
Patriots (+150 via DraftKings) at Titans ⭐⭐⭐

Week 9 upset predictions

NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Cowboys (+125) ⭐⭐⭐

At some point, the Dallas Cowboys will have to generate explosive plays in the running game if they are to beat elite teams. Dallas still does not have a running play of 15-plus yards this season after finishing tied for 10th in that category last year, but quarterback Dak Prescott and an explosive passing game are enough to pull this road upset.

The Atlanta Falcons come into this matchup overvalued after sweeping a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has allowed 14 touchdown passes in the last four games. The concerning thing for the Falcons is that they allowed 330 passing yards to the Buccaneers who were without their top two wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

I look for the Cowboys to follow a similar blueprint which saw Baker Mayfield attempt 50 passes last week, especially since Dallas already entered last week with the second-highest pass rate in the NFL.

BetMGM and DraftKings give Dallas the shortest moneyline odds at +120. The best value is at bet365, where a winning $10 wager would net $12.50 in profits.

Best odds: +125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 44.44%

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Browns (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

In his first start in a Cleveland Browns uniform, quarterback Jameis Winston finished his second career game with 300 passing yards, three or more touchdown passes, and zero interceptions (the first such game came in 2017). His performance helped the Browns not only snap a five-game losing streak, but was enough to have the team finish with 20 or more points for the first time this season.

Winston’s arm talent clearly enabled Cleveland to open up its offense in ways it could not under Deshaun Watson. Players like wideout Cedric Tillman immediately benefitted, as he totaled a career-high 99 receiving yards and caught his first two career touchdowns.

The Chargers defense will be a different test, as they are one of two teams to allow 21 or fewer points in every game this season. However, last week Los Angeles scored its first second-half touchdown since Week 1, and quarterback Justin Herbert has committed at least one turnover in five consecutive games.

Cleveland has as high as a 49.02% implied probability to win outright based on FanDuel’s +104 odds.

Best odds: +110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Patriots (+150) ⭐⭐⭐

The Tennessee Titans are off to their worst start (1-6) since 2015. They have not won outside of Nashville or Miami since November 2022 and are 0-6 in Sunday games this season.

Are they really justified as -180 moneyline favorites over the New England Patriots?

The Patriots ran for three touchdowns last week after totaling just three rushing touchdowns through the first seven games, and they had season-highs in points (25) and QBR (85.3).

At this point in the season, a matchup between two poor teams can come down to simple motivation, and it will be difficult for Tennessee to pick itself up off the mat after allowing 52 points to the Lions last week. That was the most points the Lions had put up since 1997.

DraftKings is the only top sports betting site offering better than +148 odds to back the underdog Patriots.

Best odds: +150 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40.00%

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”