Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

The Falcons are 1-3 when the Kirk Cousins starts, with his only victory against the three-win New Orleans Saints. In those four games, the Falcons have a minus-5 turnover margin. Compare that to their minus-6 across nine other games.  

Mayfield's been taking it upon himself to try to turn around the sinking ship that is the Bucs, as he's rushed a combined 21 times over the past four games after going three straight games without a rushing attempt.

Kyle Pitts remains with just one touchdown through 13 games, but he has been much more involved - and productive - since Kirk Cousins replaced the injured Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. After a poor outing against the New Orleans Saints in Cousins' first start of the season, Pitts caught 13 of 18 targets for 172 yards over the past two games.

Over the last two games, Robinson is averaging 22 carries, giving us a comfortable amount of space for this wager to hit. The Bucs' run defense has been solid, allowing 100 yards per game on the ground, but they haven't gone up against a player like Bijan, who's fifth in the league in yards after contact.

Irving leads the Bucs' backfield with three receiving touchdowns through six games, and he leads the team's running backs in receptions per game (23 through six games played). The Falcons have given up 12 total touchdowns to running backs, with four of those coming through the air.

It's safe to say that Irving is fully healthy after finding the end zone in Week 14 while carrying the ball 15 times. Mayfield loves to use him out of the backfield as well, as he's totaled three receiving touchdowns during the 2025 season.

Nobody has fallen back down to Earth harder than Baker Mayfield. Who was once an MVP candidate has now not thrown for over 200 yards in four straight weeks. The Buccaneers may be the most fraudulent teams in football, but lucky for them they're going up against the Falcons, a team that seemingly can't do anything right right now.

The frauds vs. the fraudulent. The one thing the Bucs have done well this year is beat up on teams that they should (outside of New Orleans, of course). I'm expecting a big bounce-back game from Tampa here with the division in the balance.

In the last two games, with London sidelined, Pitts had 82 and 90 receiving yards, respectively. The lion's share of his yards last week came before the Seattle Seahawks broke things wide-open.

Atlanta's ground game is its most formidable asset, ranking eighth in DVOA. While Bijan Robinson can make people miss and explode on any given Sunday, Tampa boasts the ninth-best defensive run DVOA. 

That unit held Robinson to just 24 rushing yards on 12 carries in Week 1, a key factor in the Buccaneers' 23-20 win. 

Kirk Cousins is 1-3 in games he has started, but should also be credited for the home loss to Carolina when he relieved the injured Michael Penix Jr. in the third quarter with the Falcons still leading. 

Neither of these teams are in their best form, but the Falcons are especially pitiful right now after a 37-9 loss to the Seahawks that eliminated them from the playoffs. Tampa Bay can't afford to lose this game, and I like the Bucs to take care of business at home on a short week.

I'd be shocked if we see Jayden Daniels line up under center after sustaining another injury in the Commanders' woeful loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14.

The G-Men are coming off a bye week, and I'm hoping for a performance that reflects a well-rested group. 

Washington has won three straight games against its division rivals. Granted, it managed just 206 total yards in last week’s loss to the Vikings. But if it gets better pass protection from an offensive line that allowed pressures on nine of Jayden Daniels’ 25 dropbacks, Marcus Mariota has enough experience as a starter this year to pull the upset in a clash of two unmotivated teams.

Absolutely nothing went right for the Commanders last week in Jayden Daniels' return to the field - he completed fewer than half his attempts in a 31-0 rout against the Vikings. I don't see things getting much better against a rested Giants team coming off a much-needed bye week.

Philly will have a bald eagle-sized chip on its shoulder after how they lost in Week 14 in Los Angeles.

Jalen Hurts will want to wipe clear from his memory that turnover-filled nightmare, and I expect him to do exactly that at home against one of the league's worst teams. 

The Raiders' season is over and effectively has been for some time, but they're still hanging around after a close loss to the Broncos. The Eagles have struggled to pull away from teams all season long - expect this one to be another ugly win.

D’Andre Swift has had 10 goal-line rushing attempts since Week 7, the second-most among running backs. And his versatility as a pass catcher is appealing, considering the Browns have allowed the fifth-most targets and receiving yards to running backs this season.

The Bears played well enough to beat the Packers in Green Bay last week, while the Browns lost to the Titans at home in a matchup that should have been tailor-fit for Shedeur and Co. 

I'm concerned about the Browns' defense preventing Chicago from breaking it open, but I don't have enough faith in Cleveland's offense yet. It will be freezing cold, but with clear conditions. 

It's OK to believe in the Bears after they went toe-to-toe with the Packers on Sunday in one of the best games of the week - one that left Chicago on the wrong side of the NFC North race. I'm expecting a strong showing at home this week against the Browns, who have lost two straight against teams in worse form than the Bears.

These two teams met on Thanksgiving in a game that Cincinnati won 32-14. That game saw 46 points scored despite the Bengals settling for three field goals in the red zone, and Lamar Jackson turning in his worst career game from an EPA perspective.

I am expecting a big bounceback from Baltimore’s offense in this game, coming off an encouraging rushing attack that produced 217 yards against the Steelers. The Ravens only managed 22 points in the home loss, but could have been much more if not for scoring just two touchdowns on six red zone drives (three field goals and a turnover on downs on the others).

Will the real Baltimore Ravens please stand up? I'm hoping the last two weeks weren't who this Ravens team actually is. It is a must-win for Lamar Jackson and Co., who were robbed by the refs in the Steelers game.

This time they'll finally secure the cover. 

Friends don't let friends bet on the Ravens - at least not with the way Lamar Jackson is playing after a midseason injury that clearly hasn't worn off. Cincinnati just beat its division rival two weeks ago on the road, so this feels like a real value to back the Bengals as home underdogs.

In the last three weeks, the Texans defense has not only held Indianapolis 7.5 points under its projected team total, but limited Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to a combined 0-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 56.7% completion percentage, and 44.0 passer rating.

Houston’s defense now leads the NFL in scoring, Total QBR, yards per game, and first downs. As long as it does not have a letdown after three huge games against AFC contenders, it should be able to hold its fourth opponent in five games to fewer than 17 points. 

Houston is one of the most formidable teams at the moment, with its special defence and an offense capable of beating anyone. Arizona's season is all but over, and I feel Jacoby Brissett will struggle in the firing line. 

Plus, Arizona has lost three of the last five by at least 19 points. 

I have the utmost respect for how well the Texans have played over the last month across their five-game win streak, but Monday's win over the Chiefs was their first by more than seven points since October. I expect Jacoby Brissett and Co. to keep it close in what should still be a Houston win.

This is the type of game designed for reigning MVP winner Josh Allen. It's going to be cold and potentially snowy in Foxborough, conditions Allen thrives in. 

It's also a revenge game for the Bills after the Patriots beat them at Highmark Stadium earlier in the season. To top it off, New England is due for a loss.

What could be the best matchup of the entire season also features one of the strangest lines - New England has won 10 straight, which includes a road win over Bufflao in Week 5, and Drake Maye is playing at at MVP level. I'll gladly take the points on the likely AFC champions.

Josh Allen has historically performed much better from an ATS perspective against good defenses than poor ones. Against defenses that allow 28-plus points per game, Allen is 8-11-1 in 20 starts after last week’s non-cover against the Bengals. But against defenses that allow fewer than 20 points like New England’s, Allen is 27-9-1 ATS in his career. 

I never expected to see Jacksonville play this well in its first season under Liam Coen's tutelage. The Jaguars have won four in a row, three of which by at least 17 points. 

The Jets, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction and have major issues under center to contend with. 

First-year head coach Liam Coen has the Jaguars cruising toward a potential AFC South title amid a four-game win streak, while the Jets are running out of quarterbacks after Tyrod Taylor's injury in Sunday's 24-point loss to Miami. This is a big number, but this game shouldn't be close.

The Chargers battled through their Week 14 game to prevail against the Philadelphia Eagles. They are tough to beat, having won five of the previous six games. 

They beat the Chiefs in Week 1 and have remained competitive, even in defeat, against their AFC West rivals recently. 

The Chargers already own a 27-21 Week 1 neutral site victory over Kansas City, a game in which they had more first downs, total yards, and were over 50% on third down. 

From a value perspective, it doesn’t get much better than backing one of the AFC’s five teams with nine-plus wins. That is especially true when considering Mahomes is just 2-6-1 ATS against Justin Herbert, making Herbert his least profitable opposing quarterback against the spread.

Things are beyond dire for the Chiefs, who grade out well by advanced metrics but can't buy an actual win on the field. Kansas City has played a tough schedule, but Los Angeles presents a tough challenge if Justin Herbert is healthy enough to play. Four of the last seven between these teams have been decided by three points or fewer - give me the points in this one.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. A catastrophic injury to Daniel Jones has the Indianapolis Colts reeling, with no answer under center.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are a wagon, consistently brushing opponents aside in a lopsided fashion. 

Daniels Jones is done for the year after an Achilles injury last week, a move that puts Indianapolis' playoff hopes in serious peril. There may be no worse matchup for Riley Leonard's first NFL start than the Seahawks, who have won their last two games by a combined score of 63-9. I don't have much faith in the Colts surviving a truly horrifying road spot in Seattle.

The 49ers are the healthiest they've been all season, and it shows. They've been dominant since Brock Purdy's return, having won all three by at least 11 points. 

They are playing one of the league's worst teams at home after a bye week.  

The Titans finally got the monkey off their back after more than two months without a victory, but they've shown flashes during that drought with four losses by 10 or fewer points. The 49ers' defense has improved as of late, but I still expect Cam Ward to make enough plays to keep this close.

Broncos running back RJ Harvey has averaged 17.7 touches per game since Week 11, a major uptick from his 7.5 average in Weeks 1-10. Harvey played a season-high 69% of the snaps in Week 14, and paid that off in a season-high six targets. 

Since the injury to J.K. Dobbins, Harvey has a 60% snap share, seen two-thirds of the team’s carries, and has received the bulk of the passing game work.

I am backing Harvey’s rushing and receiving yards as opposed to just his rushing yards since he has 19 receptions since Week 9 (eighth-most among running backs), while Green Bay has allowed the eighth-most receptions to the position. 

It feels like the betting market doesn't want to take seriously the run that we've seen from Denver, which hasn't lost since September. Bo Nix will need to have a plan against Green Bay's ferocious pass rush, but I trust the Broncos' defense to win one-on-ones against a big-play reliant Packers offense.

Not only is it a revenge game, but the Carolina Panthers have everything to play for as they are tied for the division lead with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Alvin Kamra is unlikely to feature, which should buoy the visitors' chances of winning a fourth road game in the last five. 

It's impossible to know what to expect from either of these NFC South rivals on a weekly basis. That's why I'm happy to take the points with the Saints, who beat the Panthers a few weeks ago and have been a tough out under rookie QB Tyler Shough.

Los Angeles’ three losses have come against the Eagles, 49ers, and Panthers, all teams that deploy bruising rushing attacks that could keep Matthew Stafford and his league-high 35 passing touchdowns off the field.

Detroit has also been great in this spot with the head coach and quarterback duo of Dan Campbell and Jared Goff, going 17-3 ATS as an underdog of at least four points.

The ideal conditions at SoFi Stadium should help the Detroit Lions go toe-to-toe with the high-flying Los Angeles Rams. 

Detroit will have its hands full against Matthew Stafford, who has an NFL-best seven games with three or more passing touchdowns this year. But the Lions are on extended rest having played last Thursday, and should be brimming with confidence off a game where they had a season-high 20 quarterback pressures.

The Lions saved their season with that win over the Cowboys on a short week, but that one victory doesn't erase the legitimate concerns that had Detroit on the playoff bubble. Meanwhile, the Rams still look like the class of the NFC and should be able to dictate terms on both sides of the ball in this heavyweight clash.

I can't see why the betting line so heavily favours the Dallas Cowboys after their disappointing outing in Detroit, especially given Minnesota's dominant defensive display in the Week 14 win over the forlorn Commanders. 

The Cowboys have looked like a different team since trading for star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams at the deadline, and while the Vikings are coming off a 31-0 blowout win over the Commanders, they lost their last two by a combined score of 49-6. I like Dallas to keep its playoff hopes alive with a convincing win in prime time.

Before their bye week, the Cowboys defense had allowed 30.8 points per game, 397.4 yards per game, a 53% third-down percentage, and a 65 Total QBR (all ranked bottom five in the NFL). After the bye entering Week 14, Dallas had improved upon those numbers to 21.7 points per game, 312.3 yards per game, a 35% third-down percentage, and 47 Total QBR allowed.

Dallas also converted a respectable 40% of its third downs last week. That continued a trend of improving from 37% last year (ranked 23rd) to 44% entering last week (fifth-best).  

The Steelers are a tough nut to crack at home, especially when it's cold. I still don't have enough faith in the Miami Dolphins, a team that has struggled in the past when the mercury dips. 

No Dolphins game has featured more than 44 points since Week 6. The Dolphins have the fourth-best red zone defense, which will force the Steelers to kick a lot of field goals, even if they get good field position off turnovers, as they've done all season.

The Steelers outlasted the Ravens last week in a matchup of deeply flawed teams. That doesn't mean Pittsburgh is free from its own issues that led to three losses in its previous four games. The Dolphins have quietly won four straight and should be able to score points to keep this one close - if not win outright.