Steelers vs. Vikings Week 14 Picks: Cousins' Prime-Time Struggles Continue

Two teams desperate to stay in the playoff hunt meet on Thursday night when the Minnesota Vikings host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Find out where we lean in our Steelers-Vikings picks.

The Steelers (6-5-1) are coming off a rousing victory over the division-rival Baltimore Ravens and find themselves just half a game out of the final wild-card spot in the AFC. The Vikings (5-7) sit one game out from the last playoff position in the NFC and will be eager to rebound from their embarrassing loss to the previously winless Detroit Lions on Sunday.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 14 matchup between the Steelers and Vikings (odds via Circa; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Steelers vs. Vikings Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Dec. 9, 8:20 p.m. ETTV: FOX, NFL NetworkLocation: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MNWeather: Indoors

Steelers vs. Vikings Odds Analysis

Following the Vikings' faceplant in Detroit and the Steelers' last-second victory over Baltimore, the Thursday Night Football line had Minnesota favored by as much as four points and the total at 45. Both have dropped a bit and many sportsbooks now sit at Vikings -3 or -3.5 and a total of 44.5 points.

By shopping around for Steelers-Vikings picks, Steelers +3 can be found at +100 odds at Circa, where the total is also at a low 44 with -105 odds on the Over.

Steelers vs. Vikings Picks

Steelers +3 (+100) ?Over 44 (-105) ???

SEE ALSO: Thursday Night Football Prop Picks

Steelers vs. Vikings Predictions

Steelers +3 (+100)

The Vikings are again expected to be without star running back Dalvin Cook, who was sidelined in Week 13 with a shoulder injury. They also likely won't have receiver Adam Thielen, who left Sunday's loss with a high ankle sprain. The Vikings were already thin at the skill positions and will have to rely even more heavily on stud sophomore wideout Justin Jefferson.

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is having a strong statistical season. He ranks sixth in passing yards (3,353), tied for fifth in touchdown passes (25), and has thrown just three interceptions. However, those numbers aren't translating to wins.

Cousins' struggles in prime time are well documented. For his career, his teams are 2-5 in Thursday night games and 8-17 playing in the late-game window.

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The Steelers have no such concerns, either with injuries or playing under the spotlight. However, both clubs have had trouble covering the spread this season. Minnesota is 6-6 ATS, 1-4 when favored, and 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.

Though Pittsburgh is 5-7 ATS this season, the Steelers have covered as underdogs five times and won outright on four occasions in that situation.

The Steelers are a good bet to cover the spread on Thursday night. If backing Pittsburgh, I'd advise either hunting out that extra half-point or jumping on the even-money odds at Circa.

Over 44 (-105)

Determining which week the Pittsburgh offense will put it together is a fool's errand. The Steelers could just as soon put up 37 points - as they did in a losing cause against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11 - as they can be held to 10 points - as they were the following week in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Minnesota has a far more reliable offense. The Vikings rank 11th in points scored per game, averaging 25.7 per contest, and they've averaged 29 points over their last five games. However, they could be down those two key cogs in Cook and Thielen on Thursday.

Vikings fans can take solace in the fact backup running back Alexander Mattison is among the most reliable spot starters in the league, as evidenced by his 124 total yards against the Lions on Sunday. The loss of Thielen hurts as the veteran was a safety valve for Cousins and helped draw attention away from Jefferson.

The determining factor lies with the defenses. Both clubs leak points, as Pittsburgh gives up 23.8 points per game (21st) and Minnesota allows 25.4 PPG (25th). They also own two of the worst run defenses in the league.

The Over has cashed in seven of the Vikings' 12 games this season and all but three of their games have eclipsed 44.5 total points. Only five of the Steelers' 12 games surpassed the 44.5 mark this year.

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Steelers-Vikings picks made 12/7/2021 at 10:16 a.m. ET