NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 7: ATS Predictions for Every Game

Favorites have struggled through six weeks, covering the spread at a rate of 43.5%. That trend plays a part in my NFL ATS picks for Week 7, which back 10 underdogs. 

I’ve selected an ATS winner for every game, focusing on the Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, and Green Bay Packers. 

These picks are part of the NFL Week 7 predictions.

NFL picks against the spread: Week 7 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 7 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Best ATS pick for Week 7

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 7.

Colts (+6.5) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I expect a big-time response from the Indianapolis Colts after their fourth-quarter meltdown against the Tennessee Titans. That atrocity cost general manager Chris Ballard his job.

But the main reason I’m backing the Colts to lose by six points or less is the Vikings’ inability to accumulate points. The Vikings haven’t scored more than 23 points since Week 1, when they racked up 39 on an injury-riddled Green Bay Packers.

Excluding that explosion, the Vikings average 17.5 points per game, which would rank fourth-lowest. The Colts’ offense, which scores 24 points per game, is good enough in a dome environment to keep this somewhat close, even against the league’s best defense.

More Week 7 picks

Browns (-1.5) vs. Titans ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m a big fan of the Browns against the 1-5 Titans, who, in their Week 6 comeback victory, were provided several lifelines by the Colts. The Titans are among the bottom five in defensive and offensive DVOA and score the fewest points per game (14), tied with the Miami Dolphins.

Since losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, the Browns are 4-1 and 2-0 on the road. They are 4-2 ATS and boast the eighth-ranked defensive DVOA. I can’t see the Titans, who hadn’t scored more than 20 points before last week’s gift in Indianapolis, consistently penetrating the Browns' top-10 stop unit.

While the Browns offense, which ranks fourth-worst in DVOA, won’t scare any team, it should have slightly more success against a poor defense.

Packers (+3) vs. Lions  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Packers have won three straight by a combined 71-34. While two of those victories came against backup quarterbacks, the Packers’ offensive line has improved significantly from the start of the season.

They face a well-rested Lions team in Detroit. However, I’m concerned about the Lions defense, which allows the third-most points per game (29.6). The Lions’ subpar 1-3-1 ATS record is mostly due to their porous secondary. And their explosive offense hasn’t faced a team of the Packers’ defensive pedigree. Green Bay ranks fourth in defensive DVOA, which should slow Jared Goff and Co. enough for the Packers to keep things close. 

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