NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 7: Best Bets to Win Every Game
Favorites have a 57-35-1 record, and home favorites are 33-21-1, as I offer my NFL moneyline picks for Week 7.
If you backed every favorite at a one-unit investment, you'd be down 7.3 units despite their 61.8% winning rate. That shows the limited return potential of many short-odds favorites.
With two plus-money bets on the board, let’s get into this week's picks.
NFL moneyline picks: Week 7
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 7 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos vs. Cardinals | Broncos (-230) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Giants vs. Texans | Texans (-500) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Packers vs. Lions | Lions (-166) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys vs. Eagles | Cowboys (-215) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chiefs vs. Seahawks | Seahawks (-134) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rams vs. Raiders | Rams (-210) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colts vs. Vikings | Vikings (-270) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Browns vs. Titans | Browns (-118) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bengals vs. Ravens | Bengals (+128) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Buccaneers vs. Panthers | Panthers (-178) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers vs. Saints | Steelers (-172) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Bears | Bears (-152) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dolphins vs. Jets | Dolphins (+198) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
My best NFL Week 7 moneyline bets
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 7.
Packers vs. Lions (-166) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Packers allowed 34 points over their three-game winning streak, their fewest total points allowed in three straight games since 2021. However, they faced two teams with backup quarterbacks (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears) and a disjointed Dallas Cowboys offense that also struggled at home against the Buccaneers the previous week.
The Detroit Lions are far from a perfect team. But after a bye week, they'll be well-rested and score the most points per game (32.8), tied with the Buffalo Bills. Dan Campbell’s team is also benefiting from Jared Goff’s lights-out play.
Goff has the ninth-most passing yards (1,485), tied for the fourth-most TDs (12), and the fewest turnovers (0) despite playing one fewer game than most.
More Week 7 picks
Browns (-118) vs. Titans ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Cleveland Browns have a tragically poor offense, ranking 29th in DVOA. The same goes for the 1-5 Tennessee Titans, who rank 28th in DVOA and have scored more than 20 points once.
That 26-point outburst came against the Indianapolis Colts last week, thanks to a miraculous comeback down the stretch in which they scored 20 fourth-quarter points.
They will not be so lucky against a Browns defense ranked ninth in DVOA and allowing the seventh-fewest points per game (20.3), tied with two others.
Meanwhile, the Titans have the fourth-worst defensive DVOA.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers (-178) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Scoring the fourth-most points per game (29.2) and ranking among the top 10 in offensive DVOA, the Carolina Panthers have one of the best offenses around.
Even if Baker Mayfield wins the race against time, the Panthers’ ability to move the ball downfield will be too much for the Buccaneers’ offense to match. The Buccaneers average 19.8 points per game (ranked 25th), which drops to 18.4 from Week 2 onward.
Jalon Daniels has enjoyed a promising start to his NFL career, but he has struggled with ball control, throwing five picks in 13 quarters. Bryce Young has 13 TD passes compared to only three interceptions.
More Week 7 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 7.
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