Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Champions League Match
We get a clash between the English and Germany holders on Wednesday, and my Bayern vs. Arsenal prediction looks to sort through some skewed domestic numbers to find value in my Champions League picks. Bayern is a +100 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline, with the draw at +280 and the visiting Gunners at +240.
But instead of the result of the game, I'm looking to two volume markets ahead of kickoff from Allianz Arena in Munich at 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+).
Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Over 15.5 shots | +100 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 1 units |
| Arsenal Under 12.5 shots | -138 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 0.73 units |
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Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal best bet
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Bayern Over 15.5 shots (+110)
Bayern's domestic volume underpins this line, even with a sizable suppression mark due to this being significantly tougher opposition than they'd face in the Bundesliga. The German giants are averaging 24.33 shots across six league games. They rely on sustained attacking pressure rather than trying to make limited opportunities count, and playing at home will help support that style of play.
Die Roten plays an aggressive press, with PPDA numbers rivaling that of Brighton (a team that gave Arsenal fits and recorded 17 shots), per Opta Analytics. If Arsenal haven't found a way to beat that type of press regularly, they'll likely return possession to the German side with Joshua Kimmich recycling possession in the midfield. Arsenal can limit central scoring opportunities with Konsa and Gabriel, but the wide areas and attempts from outside the box are still in play. Despite Michael Olise and Jamal Musiala weakening creativity, I'm more concerned about how that impacts clinical finishing than shooting volume.
🆚 Who will win Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal?
That press I just mentioned gave Arsenal so much trouble against Brighton that I have trouble seeing them through to a victory on Wednesday. While Arsenal's incredibly strong central backline will help keep the contest closer than perhaps the possession and shooting numbers will show, Bayern ultimately should grab all three points.
Score prediction: Bayern 2, Arsenal 1
More Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal expert picks
Arsenal Under 12.5 shots (-138)
A trip to Munich is demanding, so Arsenal suddenly outpacing their domestic volume against the toughest side they'll have faced this season doesn't seem likely. The Gunners have relied on possession and searching for high-end opportunities throughout the season instead of compiling volume, holding 74% of the ball with just nine shots (and one on target) in last weekend's clash with Nottingham Forest. Needless to say, Allianz is a tougher venue that The City Ground in Nottingham.
Much like why Bayern should record volume, their demanding press should limit Arsenal opportunities, making it difficult to build through the back and retain possession. Arsenal's priorities in this demanding road fixture will be securing possession and preventing turnovers, and while Saka and co. should still create the occasional dangerous moment, I'm not expecting those isolated opportunities to result in volume.
Bayern scoring early might put this in jeopardy should Arsenal find themselves chasing, but I'm not banking on either team jumping out to an early lead.
Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal key stats
All stats below are for the Champions League season unless otherwise noted.
| Bayern | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Champions League league phase) | 1-1-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Home/Away Record (Champions League) | 1-0-0 at home | 1-0-0 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | WWWDDW | WWLWWW |
| Goals for | 8 | 4 |
| xG | 5.93 | 5.75 |
| Goals against | 3 | 0 |
| xGA | 1.03 | 0.52 |
| Average possession | 65.5% | 57.9% |
Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal odds
Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal; subject to change:
| Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1) | Arsenal (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Neuer (GK) | Raya (GK) |
| Laimer (D) | Timber (D) |
| Upamecano (D) | Konsa (D) |
| Tah (D) | Gabriel (D) |
| Davies (D) | Calafiori (D) |
| Pavlovic (M) | Lewis-Skelly (M) |
| Kimmich (M) | Rice (M) |
| Karl (M) | Saka (M) |
| Saibari (M) | Odegaard (M) |
| Luis Diaz (M) | Madueke (M) |
| Kane (F) | Havertz (F) |
How to watch Bayern Munich vs. Arsenal
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 21
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Allianz Arena (Munich)
- TV/Streaming: Paramount+
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