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Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears runs the ball as look at the betting results from Illinois sports betting in October.
Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears runs the ball in the game against the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images/AFP

We’ve crunched the numbers to make our best NFL rushing prop predictions for Week 11, and Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields is featured among our picks, which are based on the best NFL odds from our top NFL prop betting sites.

Fields is returning from a thumb injury to face the Detroit Lions and will hit the field for the first time since Week 6.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is a candidate to see his touches limited against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Finally, though the Dallas Cowboys have put up big-time numbers in their last few games, Cowboys running back Tony Pollard hasn't been the star many imagined leading into the season. He has six consecutive games with less than 60 rushing yards. 

Check out our NFL Week 11 predictions and Week 11 best bets, along with our Week 11 NFL props to accompany our best NFL rushing player prop predictions for Week 11 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL rushing prop predictions for Week 11

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Rushing player props

Tony Pollard Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cowboys running back Tony Pollard rushed for at least 70 yards in each of his first three games, as he accumulated 264 rushing yards. In his six games since then, he’s accumulated 265 rushing yards in total and failed to rush for more than 55 yards in a single contest.

This week, Pollard will finally have a breakthrough game and get back on the right track. The Panthers have the 26th-ranked rushing defense in football, allowing 131.9 yards on the ground per game. The Cowboys will likely throw the ball often early in the contest, but after they build up their lead, Pollard will become a massive part of the offense. Against this bad of a defense, he’s bound to have a solid game. If he doesn’t, it’s time to fade Pollard for the rest of the season. 

Each of our best sports betting apps has Pollard’s total listed at 67.5, except for FanDuel. bet365 is offering the best price, asking -110 for the Over. However, because of Pollard’s stats this season, we recommend taking the extra yard for a slightly worse price.

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Justin Fields Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bears signal-caller Justin Fields returns to the field for the first time since injuring his thumb in Week 6 against the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions’ pass defense has struggled in recent weeks, allowing 252.3 yards per game in their last three. However, Fields may be unable to take advantage of the Lions’ major defensive weakness because of his injury.

If Fields is uncomfortable throwing the ball into tight windows, then he will use his athleticism to extend plays and try to pick up yards. Fields has had a lot of success running against the Lions in his career, as exemplified by a performance last season where he ran for 105 yards in a single quarter. 

Fields has rushed the ball eight or more times in three of his five games this season, and every storyline and stat entering Sunday’s matchup points to him topping that number again. This prop can get pretty expensive, with many of our NFL prop betting sites priced at -135 for the Over. Make sure you shop around and get the best price possible.

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Josh Jacobs Under 65.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

FanDuel is offering this prop a full three yards higher than any of our NFL prop betting sites. What’s most surprising about this is that the other best sports betting apps all favor the Under and have a price of -110 or worse for Jacobs to fail to hit 62.5 yards. Get in soon, as this number is likely to drop before kickoff.

Since Raider head coach Josh McDaniels was fired, Jacobs has become a much bigger part of the Raiders’ offense. He’s carried the ball 53 times in his last two games and has run for a combined 214 yards. But the Raiders also won both of those games, so Jacobs had more opportunities to run the ball.

This week, he will struggle to get touches as his team trails the high-scoring Dolphins for most of the day. Averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season, Jacobs needs nearly 20 touches to hit this number. Against the 13th-bets run defense in football, he may need even more.

Rushing prop picks made 11/17/2023 at 10:53 a.m. ET.

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