Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Robinson is only one game removed from 14 targets that he turned into 156 yards with a touchdown. That tied a career high in targets, and it was his fourth double-digit target game over the previous seven weeks.

There's a fear here of Rodriguez facing a negative game script that will impact his rushing volume. But that concern is largely baked into this lower yardage number. It's a number Rodriguez likely won't need a heavy workload to reach anyway against the league's second-worst run defense, with the Giants giving up 154.5 rushing yards per game. 

Dart has been hovering around this number while accumulating 190-plus passing yards in six of his eight starts thus far. That's the baseline he's beginning from then while getting a much softer matchup this week against the Commanders' 30th-ranked pass defense, a unit giving up 246.9 yards per game.

The season is lost for both of these teams, the difference is that Giants QB Jaxson Dart still has something to prove. The Commanders have been somewhat lifeless over the last couple weeks, and I'm expecting much of the same in Week 15.

I'd be shocked if we see Jayden Daniels line up under center after sustaining another injury in the Commanders' woeful loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14.

The G-Men are coming off a bye week, and I'm hoping for a performance that reflects a well-rested group. 

Washington has won three straight games against its division rivals. Granted, it managed just 206 total yards in last week’s loss to the Vikings. But if it gets better pass protection from an offensive line that allowed pressures on nine of Jayden Daniels’ 25 dropbacks, Marcus Mariota has enough experience as a starter this year to pull the upset in a clash of two unmotivated teams.

Absolutely nothing went right for the Commanders last week in Jayden Daniels' return to the field - he completed fewer than half his attempts in a 31-0 rout against the Vikings. I don't see things getting much better against a rested Giants team coming off a much-needed bye week.

The Eagles have hit rock bottom after their loss to the Chargers, and that's when you find out what a team truly is. Will Jalen Hurts continue his descent into the basement of quarterbacks? I don't think so. And the Raiders are the perfect team to get right against.

A.J. Brown has been a target hog since he went public with concerns about his role in the Eagles offense. Brown has seen double-digit targets in four straight games, including a season-high 13 last week. He also leads the NFL in designed/first read targets over the last three weeks with 32.

Brown has paid off that increased volume with three straight 100-yard receiving games. He now faces a Raiders defense that has allowed the second-most targets and receptions to wide receivers over the last 12 weeks.

Brown has three touchdowns over the last three games.

Prior to missing the Monday night contest last week, Philadelphia’s Jalen Carter had also missed two other games with an injury. In those games, Cowboys running backs Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders combined for 107 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 attempts, while Giants running back Cam Skattebo went for 98 yards and three scores.

Now the Chargers are coming off a game where they ran for 169 yards and 4.4 yards per carry in Carter’s absence, suggesting Jeanty should have more running room than usual.

The Eagles as a whole have committed nine turnovers in the last three games after combining for four turnovers through the first 10. Thus, with Saquon Barkley coming off his second 100-yard rushing game of the season (he had 11 last year), I expect Philadelphia to commit to a more conservative ground-and-pound approach to limit turnovers and get its vital ground game going.

Philly will have a bald eagle-sized chip on its shoulder after how they lost in Week 14 in Los Angeles.

Jalen Hurts will want to wipe clear from his memory that turnover-filled nightmare, and I expect him to do exactly that at home against one of the league's worst teams. 

The Raiders' season is over and effectively has been for some time, but they're still hanging around after a close loss to the Broncos. The Eagles have struggled to pull away from teams all season long - expect this one to be another ugly win.

Harold Fannin Jr. has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games. I like the odds of him keeping that streak alive on Sunday, as the Browns are without David Njoku.

Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. caught eight passes on 11 targets last weekend. Now, he gets a matchup against the Bears, who allow six catches per game to opposing tight ends.

After throwing for 364 last weekend, Shedeur Sanders' passing line climbed by about 15 yards. I'm not sure that's enough against a Bears team that is allowing 224.8 yards per game.

Fresh off his first 300-yard game in the NFL, Sanders' number is almost half of that in Week 15, and I'm taking advantage of this lapse in judgement by sportsbooks. The Bears own the 21st-ranked pass defense, giving up 224.8 passing yards per game, and Sanders is just now getting acclimated to the NFL level. 

D’Andre Swift has had 10 goal-line rushing attempts since Week 7, the second-most among running backs. And his versatility as a pass catcher is appealing, considering the Browns have allowed the fifth-most targets and receiving yards to running backs this season.

The Bears played well enough to beat the Packers in Green Bay last week, while the Browns lost to the Titans at home in a matchup that should have been tailor-fit for Shedeur and Co. 

I'm concerned about the Browns' defense preventing Chicago from breaking it open, but I don't have enough faith in Cleveland's offense yet. It will be freezing cold, but with clear conditions. 

It's OK to believe in the Bears after they went toe-to-toe with the Packers on Sunday in one of the best games of the week - one that left Chicago on the wrong side of the NFC North race. I'm expecting a strong showing at home this week against the Browns, who have lost two straight against teams in worse form than the Bears.

Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most passing yards to running backs this season, and Brown caught all seven of his targets for 35 yards when these teams met two weeks ago.

Likely has had more targets, receptions and yards than Mark Andrews the past three weeks, and Cincinnati has allowed a league-worst 15 touchdowns to tight ends.

The Bengals have allowed at least one rush of 22+ yards in six of their last seven games, including a 28-yard score to Henry when the teams met in Week 13.

Baltimore may just be ... bad? The Bengals have new life with Joe Burrow at QB, seems like two teams trending in opposite directions. If you're feeling greedy, take the Bengals on the ML here, ill stick to the points.

These two teams met on Thanksgiving in a game that Cincinnati won 32-14. That game saw 46 points scored despite the Bengals settling for three field goals in the red zone, and Lamar Jackson turning in his worst career game from an EPA perspective.

I am expecting a big bounceback from Baltimore’s offense in this game, coming off an encouraging rushing attack that produced 217 yards against the Steelers. The Ravens only managed 22 points in the home loss, but could have been much more if not for scoring just two touchdowns on six red zone drives (three field goals and a turnover on downs on the others).

Will the real Baltimore Ravens please stand up? I'm hoping the last two weeks weren't who this Ravens team actually is. It is a must-win for Lamar Jackson and Co., who were robbed by the refs in the Steelers game.

This time they'll finally secure the cover. 

Friends don't let friends bet on the Ravens - at least not with the way Lamar Jackson is playing after a midseason injury that clearly hasn't worn off. Cincinnati just beat its division rival two weeks ago on the road, so this feels like a real value to back the Bengals as home underdogs.

Schultz has just one touchdown this season, but he leads the Texans in receptions and is second in receiving yards. The Cardinals have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the ninth-most in the league.

Brissett has attempted at least 40 passes in five consecutive games. The Texans are allowing quarterbacks to complete just 57.1% of passes, so Brissett will likely need more attempts to keep his team in it as 9.5-point underdogs.

The Texans are allowing the fourth-fewest yards to tight ends this season. Though McBride has at least 70 yards in four of his last five games, last week he managed just 58 against the only top-10 defense against tight ends that he's faced since Week 7.

In the last three weeks, the Texans defense has not only held Indianapolis 7.5 points under its projected team total, but limited Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes to a combined 0-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 56.7% completion percentage, and 44.0 passer rating.

Houston’s defense now leads the NFL in scoring, Total QBR, yards per game, and first downs. As long as it does not have a letdown after three huge games against AFC contenders, it should be able to hold its fourth opponent in five games to fewer than 17 points. 

Houston is one of the most formidable teams at the moment, with its special defence and an offense capable of beating anyone. Arizona's season is all but over, and I feel Jacoby Brissett will struggle in the firing line. 

Plus, Arizona has lost three of the last five by at least 19 points. 

I have the utmost respect for how well the Texans have played over the last month across their five-game win streak, but Monday's win over the Chiefs was their first by more than seven points since October. I expect Jacoby Brissett and Co. to keep it close in what should still be a Houston win.

Incentive bets, anyone? Diggs needs four catches to reach a $500,000 incentive, and then another two to unlock one more $500,000 incentive. He's also looking for touchdown incentives, too, moving forward, and Drake Maye will be targeting him early and often as a result. Tis the season to win wagers based primarily off incentives, and let's start with Diggs.

Stevenson only has three touchdowns this season, but two of them were scored against the Bills. The Bills have allowed a league-high 19 rushing touchdowns, and Stevenson should get opportunities, as he outcarried TreVeyon Henderson last week.

Kincaid had six catches for 108 yards the first time he faced the Patriots, and he now has at least four receptions in six of his nine games. The Patriots have allowed 79 receptions to tight ends, tied for the seventh-most in the league.

Henderson has at least 55 yards in six consecutive games, and the Bills rank 5th-worst in rush defense and 4th-worst in yards allowed per carry.

Diggs has regressed of late, clearing 50-plus receiving yards in just one of the previous six games.

Bills cornerback Christian Benford covered Diggs on just five routes in the first meeting. But since Week 6, he has allowed the lowest passer rating in the NFL, while lining up against several elite wide receivers (Drake London, Nico Collins, Ja’Marr Chase, Emeka Ebguka, DK Metcalf, etc.).

Buffalo has also allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers since Week 10.

This is the type of game designed for reigning MVP winner Josh Allen. It's going to be cold and potentially snowy in Foxborough, conditions Allen thrives in. 

It's also a revenge game for the Bills after the Patriots beat them at Highmark Stadium earlier in the season. To top it off, New England is due for a loss.

What could be the best matchup of the entire season also features one of the strangest lines - New England has won 10 straight, which includes a road win over Bufflao in Week 5, and Drake Maye is playing at at MVP level. I'll gladly take the points on the likely AFC champions.

Josh Allen has historically performed much better from an ATS perspective against good defenses than poor ones. Against defenses that allow 28-plus points per game, Allen is 8-11-1 in 20 starts after last week’s non-cover against the Bengals. But against defenses that allow fewer than 20 points like New England’s, Allen is 27-9-1 ATS in his career. 

In three quarters of action in relief of the injured Tyrod Taylor last week, Brady Cook threw for 163 yards, but his longest completion went for 24 yards. That was his only completion longer than 18 yards for the game.

The ceiling for Cook’s O/U for passing yards across the market is 156.5 yards, and I expect a heavy dose of blitzing from the Jaguars defense in an attempt to rattle the young signal caller. 

Even with Taylor and Justin Fields under center over the last four weeks, just one Jets wide receiver had a catch longer than 27.5 yards in that span.

I never expected to see Jacksonville play this well in its first season under Liam Coen's tutelage. The Jaguars have won four in a row, three of which by at least 17 points. 

The Jets, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction and have major issues under center to contend with. 

First-year head coach Liam Coen has the Jaguars cruising toward a potential AFC South title amid a four-game win streak, while the Jets are running out of quarterbacks after Tyrod Taylor's injury in Sunday's 24-point loss to Miami. This is a big number, but this game shouldn't be close.

Desperate times are here for the Kansas City Chiefs, who now need to win every game and get some help to wiggle their way into the playoffs. And Mahomes often runs more when desperation gets ratcheted up. We've seen that recently, as Mahomes is averaging 39.7 yards on the ground across the past three weeks, which comes after a combined eight yards in Weeks 9 and 10.

Mahomes scored in four of his first six games, but he hasn't scored in seven straight. However, he scored against the Chargers, and he's likely going to need to make things happen with his legs again, as the Chargers have allowed just 12 passing touchdowns, tied for the fewest in the league.

Hunt only ran for 30 yards last week, but he still outcarried Isiah Pacheco. He has at least 10 carries in five consecutive games, and he's about to face a defense allowing 4.6 yards per attempt.

Herbert was sacked a season-high seven times last week, and with his offensive line unable to protect him, he's thrown for 151 yards or fewer in three consecutive games. The Chiefs are allowing 204.2 passing yards per game, and they've held two of three opponents to 203 or less.

The Chargers battled through their Week 14 game to prevail against the Philadelphia Eagles. They are tough to beat, having won five of the previous six games. 

They beat the Chiefs in Week 1 and have remained competitive, even in defeat, against their AFC West rivals recently. 

The Chargers already own a 27-21 Week 1 neutral site victory over Kansas City, a game in which they had more first downs, total yards, and were over 50% on third down. 

From a value perspective, it doesn’t get much better than backing one of the AFC’s five teams with nine-plus wins. That is especially true when considering Mahomes is just 2-6-1 ATS against Justin Herbert, making Herbert his least profitable opposing quarterback against the spread.

Things are beyond dire for the Chiefs, who grade out well by advanced metrics but can't buy an actual win on the field. Kansas City has played a tough schedule, but Los Angeles presents a tough challenge if Justin Herbert is healthy enough to play. Four of the last seven between these teams have been decided by three points or fewer - give me the points in this one.

Though Barner hasn't scored a receiving touchdown since Week 5, he's about to face a Colts defense that has allowed the third-most yards to tight ends this season. Barner is an integral part of the Seahawks' offense, as he has at least two catches in four consecutive games, and he had 10 for 70 yards against the Rams in Week 11.

Walker has 56 or fewer yards in back-to-back games. The Colts rank third in yards allowed per carry (3.8), and while Walker may see increased opportunities in a blowout, Zach Charbonnet has been cutting into his touches and has received at least as many carries as Walker in two of the Seahawks' last five games.

Taylor has 21 carries in back-to-back games. With the Colts' quarterback situation, I expect increased attempts for Taylor, even as a nearly two-touchdown underdog against the league's fourth-ranked rush defense.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. A catastrophic injury to Daniel Jones has the Indianapolis Colts reeling, with no answer under center.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are a wagon, consistently brushing opponents aside in a lopsided fashion. 

Daniels Jones is done for the year after an Achilles injury last week, a move that puts Indianapolis' playoff hopes in serious peril. There may be no worse matchup for Riley Leonard's first NFL start than the Seahawks, who have won their last two games by a combined score of 63-9. I don't have much faith in the Colts surviving a truly horrifying road spot in Seattle.

The 49ers are the healthiest they've been all season, and it shows. They've been dominant since Brock Purdy's return, having won all three by at least 11 points. 

They are playing one of the league's worst teams at home after a bye week.  

The Titans finally got the monkey off their back after more than two months without a victory, but they've shown flashes during that drought with four losses by 10 or fewer points. The 49ers' defense has improved as of late, but I still expect Cam Ward to make enough plays to keep this close.

Engram has just one touchdown this season, but he's third on the Broncos in receptions and receiving yards. The Packers have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the ninth-most in the league.

The Broncos haven't allowed a rusher to top 60 yards in a game since Week 3. They're allowing the second-fewest yards per game and fewest yards per carry, and Jacobs has fewer than 68 yards in five games.

Harvey has caught 37 of the 42 passes thrown his way this season. Considering the Packers rank ninth in rush defense and yards allowed per carry, and Harvey has 35 or fewer yards in four of his last five games, I anticipate the Broncos looking to get him involved in the passing game instead of on the ground.

Broncos running back RJ Harvey has averaged 17.7 touches per game since Week 11, a major uptick from his 7.5 average in Weeks 1-10. Harvey played a season-high 69% of the snaps in Week 14, and paid that off in a season-high six targets. 

Since the injury to J.K. Dobbins, Harvey has a 60% snap share, seen two-thirds of the team’s carries, and has received the bulk of the passing game work.

It feels like the betting market doesn't want to take seriously the run that we've seen from Denver, which hasn't lost since September. Bo Nix will need to have a plan against Green Bay's ferocious pass rush, but I trust the Broncos' defense to win one-on-ones against a big-play reliant Packers offense.

Dowdle has scored first in two games this season, including against the Saints. The Saints are averaging just 2.0 points per first quarter, which is the worst mark in the league, so the Panthers are likely to score first in this contest.

McMillan had five catches for 60 yards in his first meeting with the Saints. However, he has\n't topped 43 yards in his last two games, and the Saints rank sixth in pass defense, allowing 182.6 yards per game.

Shough has thrown a pick in five of his six games with at least 20 passes. However, he didn't throw one against the Panthers earlier this year, and though the Panthers have 12 interceptions this season, those numbers are a bit skewed by two huge games, as they had only seven through their first 11 games.

Not only is it a revenge game, but the Carolina Panthers have everything to play for as they are tied for the division lead with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Alvin Kamra is unlikely to feature, which should buoy the visitors' chances of winning a fourth road game in the last five. 

It's impossible to know what to expect from either of these NFC South rivals on a weekly basis. That's why I'm happy to take the points with the Saints, who beat the Panthers a few weeks ago and have been a tough out under rookie QB Tyler Shough.