NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
The Detroit Lions' 7-1 record is the same as their against-the-spread (ATS) mark. They boast the NFL's best ATS record and only the 8-0 Super Bowl odds favorite Kansas City Chiefs have a better overall record entering Week 10.
- Away teams were 8-7 ATS in Week 9 and are 74-60-4 overall
- Favorites were 10-5 in Week 10
- Away underdogs were 4-6 in Week 10 and are 43-43-2 overall
Our record since Week 4 improved to 56-34 and 80-58 overall after a 10-5 Week 9. Let's see what we can cook up with our Week 10 NFL picks against the spread.
NFL ATS picks Week 10: Every game
NFL odds via FanDuel and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Bengals vs. Ravens (-6.5) | Bengals (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Giants (-5.5) vs. Panthers | Giants (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Patriots vs. Bears (-6.5) | Patriots (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bills (-4.5) vs. Colts | Colts (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings (-4.5) vs. Jaguars | Vikings (-4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos vs. Chiefs (-8.5) | Chiefs (-8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Falcons (-3) vs. Saints | Falcons (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers (-5.5) vs. Buccaneers | 49ers (-5.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers vs. Commanders (-3) | Steelers (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans vs. Chargers (-7.5) | Chargers (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets (-1.5) vs. Cardinals | Jets (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Eagles (-7) vs. Cowboys | Eagles (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lions (-3.5) vs. Texans | Lions (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Dolphins vs. Rams (-2.5) | Rams (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
My favorite ATS picks this week
NFL picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Falcons (-3) vs. Saints
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
The Atlanta Falcons have won five of their last six, including a 26-24 Week 4 victory over the New Orleans Saints. The NFC South adversaries have been on divergent paths ever since that two-point contest, with the Saints losing six in a row. It all culminated in the firing of former head coach Dennis Allen after the Week 9 loss to the bottom-dwelling Carolina Panthers.
And to think, Allen was an NFL Coach of the Year odds front-runner through Week 2.
The Falcons are unbeaten against NFC South teams, winning all four contests. While it's unclear whether Drake London and Grady Jarrett will be available after suffering Week 9 injuries, the Falcons should have enough to cover the spread either way.
There is a chance the Saints will be galvanized in the aftermath of the coaching change, but I'm willing to lay the points on the sizzling Falcons. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.47.
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Jets (+1) vs. Cardinals
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Arizona is 6-3 ATS, and the Jets are 3-6. Yet, I'm backing the Jets to win their second in a row when they face the Cardinals. It felt like something clicked for the Jets in Week 9 against the Houston Texans.
Then again, that "clicking" feeling might have single-handedly been due to Garrett Wilson's acrobatic touchdown grab.
Either way, despite the Texans' injury issues, I went against the Jets. Gang Green has the third-best coverage grade via PFF, which should somewhat mitigate the threat offered by the Cardinals' eighth-ranked passing attack.
Also, the Jets lost a couple of games - particularly against the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills - they probably should have won.
The opposite is true of the Cardinals, who were lucky to escape with victories against the Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, and, even more so, the San Francisco 49ers. The Jets opened as 1 or 1.5-point favorites, but the line flipped at four of our five best NFL betting sites.
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Eagles (-7) vs. Cowboys
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
Dak Prescott suffered a hamstring injury in the Cowboys' loss to the Falcons and will miss at least a few weeks. While a touchdown is a significant margin on the road, Dallas is 2-6 ATS and lost two of its previous three home games by at least 25 points. And those results came with Prescott at the helm.
While Cooper Rush is one of the more capable backups, CeeDee Lamb's status is uncertain after he injured his shoulder in Week 9. Plus, the Cowboys have the fourth-worst defensive DVOA and the second-worst defense via PFF.
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