Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 7
The Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots are two of the NFL's worst against-the-spread (ATS) teams. They're also two of four teams with a 1-5 record.
The last time the Patriots played in London, in 2012, they were a consistent Super Bowl contender. They can only dream of being a Super Bowl odds contender in 2024.
New England has lost four in a row, three of those by at least 17 points. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were smoked by the Chicago Bears 35-16 in London last week, so it's a quintessential battle of losers at Wembley Stadium early Sunday morning (9:30 a.m. ET kickoff on the NFL Network).
- New England is 1-4-1 ATS
- The Jaguars, 2-4 ATS, are 0-4 on the road, including last week's road-designated defeat against Chicago
- The Patriots have a number of injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball, including two cornerbacks, a safety, and a linebacker. That's in addition to Jabrill Peppers, who is on the commissioner exempt list
Our Jaguars vs. Patriots prediction is part of the London coverage, which includes our Trevor Lawrence player prop bets, Patriots vs. Jaguars parlay, Patriots vs. Jaguars player props, and Drake Maye player prop bets.
Best Patriots vs. Jaguars picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Jaguars -5.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Patriots vs. Jaguars against the spread prediction: Week 7
Jaguars to cover the spread: -5.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%
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All hope is lost in Jacksonville if the Jaguars can't beat the Patriots. New England has been outscored 110-47 in the last four games. You know it's bad when you don't need a calculator to figure out their point total.
New England's offense is terrible, ranking 31st overall via PFF. Drake Maye threw three touchdowns last week against the Houston Texans in his first start, but he was also picked off twice and sacked four times. Welcome to life behind the Patriots' offensive line, Drake.
The Patriots have the 29th-ranked pass attack and the third-worst offensive DVOA.
Their defense isn't much better, ranking 21st overall and 29th in defensive DVOA.
And that defense has been hit hard by injury. Linebacker Curtis Jacobs, cornerbacks Marcus Jones and Jonathan Jones, and safety Kyle Dugger, the last three of whom are starters, are questionable for Sunday's tilt.
Jags' offense also hit by injury bug
The Jags are fortunate to be playing an injury-riddled defense, as the injury bug has also hit their offense. Running back Travis Etienne Jr., favoring his hamstring, was limited in practice, and the same situation prevented tight end Evan Engram from participating fully. Wide receiver Gabe Davis was also limited due to a knee injury.
The Jaguars have the 20th-ranked offensive DVOA and 14th-best pass attack, and Trevor Lawrence has been better recently, throwing six touchdowns to just two interceptions in the last three games.
If Engram or Davis are good to go, I can't see the Patriots' pass defense putting up enough resistance to prevent the Jags from covering.
Four of our five best sports betting apps have the Jaguars at -6, while FanDuel has remained at -5.5 since the line opened.
The -115 price at FanDuel is only slightly steeper than the -110 offered at BetMGM, bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. I'll take the extra half-point and sacrifice the $0.39 I'll lose if the Jags win by seven or more.
A $10 winning bet will profit $8.70.
Our Brenden Schaeffer makes the case for the other side with his Patriots vs. Jaguars parlay.
Patriots vs. Jaguars best bet
Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 TD passes (+112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Lawrence has thrown two touchdown passes in each of his last three games. He's facing a pass defense that has allowed seven touchdown passes, six of which from within the red zone.
New England allowed three touchdown passes to Houston in Week 6, and while the Jags' aerial threat pales in comparison to the Texans', Lawrence should be able to hit the Over on this prop for the fourth consecutive game.
A winning $10 bet will profit $11.20.
Best odds: +112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.17%
Patriots vs. Jaguars odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Patriots vs. Jaguars opening odds:
- Patriots: +5.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
- Jaguars: -5.5. (-115 via BetMGM)
Patriots vs. Jaguars game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 20
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Where: Wembley Stadium (London)
- How to watch: NFL Network
- Weather: 63 degrees, 18 mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Jaguars -5.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
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