Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bets, Picks & Odds vs. 49ers

Patrick Mahomes looks to win his fifth straight against the San Francisco 49ers as we offer our best Mahomes prop picks for the anticipated rematch of last year's Super Bowl.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 19, 2024 11:21 AM EDT • 5 minute read

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes runs the ball and dives for a first down against the New Orleans Saints as we offer our Patrick Mahomes player props for the Chiefs vs. 49ers. — Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes runs the ball and dives for a first down against the New Orleans Saints. Photo by Denny Medley via Imagn Images

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Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs into a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs and 49ers are the Super Bowl odds front-runners entering Week 7.

Mahomes is 4-0 in his career against the 49ers (2-0 in the regular season, 2-0 in Super Bowls)
Mahomes still leads the MVP futures odds list despite a slow statistical start to the season
This is the sixth regular season rematch of two Super Bowl teams from the year prior over the last 30 years, and the team that won the Super Bowl is 4-1 in the rematch

Our Mahomes player prop bets expect the 49ers to contain him like they never have before from a passing yards total and offer a unique play on a prop involving Mahomes’ legs.The below props are part of our NFL Week 7 predictions.

Patrick Mahomes prop bets Week 7

Patrick Mahomes Under 241.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Patrick Mahomes longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Patrick Mahomes longest rush Over 10.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Saturday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Patrick Mahomes Under 241.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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It's our most speculative three-star play, as this line gives off vibes that the oddsmakers know Mahomes will be in for a slow passing day. In two regular-season meetings with the 49ers, Mahomes has thrown for 314 and 423 passing yards, good for a 123.4 passer rating.

In the two Super Bowl victories, he threw for 286 yards and 333 yards, respectively.

There is a chance that Andy Reid and the coaching staff used last week’s bye to focus on sharpening up the passing game. But without downfield targets like Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice, Mahomes has averaged an NFL-low 5.0 air yards per attempt this season.

This three-star play is also based on San Francisco allowing the 11th-lowest passer rating and fifth-lowest CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectancy) this season.

Under backers will find the best value at FanDuel, as Mahomes’ O/U for passing yards is as low as 234.5 at bet365. A $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s -114 odds would pay $18.77.

Patrick Mahomes longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%

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This wager may seem to contradict my first play, but I still like the chances of Mahomes completing one big pass and still going under his projected passing yards total.

The Chiefs are averaging 7.2 yards after catch per completion, the second-highest average in the league. Meanwhile, the 49ers allow 6.0 yards after catch per completion, which ranks 26th.

This is a four-star play, as since Rashee Rice's injury, the Chiefs have hit on three passes of 38-plus yards over the last two weeks, including at least one in each game. One of those games was against the Chargers, the league's best scoring defense and eighth-best passing defense.

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the line of 35.5 yards, but DraftKings has by far the best price, as the Over is juiced as high as -115 (carrying a 53.49% implied probability) at bet365.

Patrick Mahomes longest rush Over 10.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

Mahomes has scored 17 or more fantasy points once in the last 14 games. He has also averaged 14 fantasy points per game, with his highest finish being QB12. He finished every other game between QB16 and QB18.

He is not likely to fly up the fantasy rankings unless he starts using his legs more, and he only has 83 rushing yards on 23 carries this year. However, Mahomes has had at least one 13-yard rush in two of the last three games and at least one nine-yard carry in four straight.

I expect Mahomes to be under pressure from the 49ers front, led by Nick Bosa, who ranks fourth among all players with 23 pressures. More pressure on Mahomes means more chances for him to scramble, and I am backing this wager with a three-star play.

The best price is at DraftKings, compared to BetMGM, whose odds are juiced to -120 to back this Over.

Chiefs vs. 49ers odds

NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Chiefs vs. 49ers game info

When: Sunday, Oct. 20
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
How to watch: FOX
Weather: 82 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph NW
Favorite: 49ers -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”