Packers vs. Vikings Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 17: Sunday Night Football
The 2023 NFL slate concludes with an NFC North clash between Green Bay and Minnesota, and we offer our top Packers vs. Vikings prediction for Sunday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.
The Vikings' postseason hopes hang by a thread following their tough Week 16 loss to the Detroit Lions. The defeat led to a change at quarterback, too, as Nick Mullens paired an impressive 411 passing yards with four mostly hideous interceptions.
Minnesota will now turn to fifth-round rookie signal-caller Jaren Hall. He's attempted just 10 passes all season but will now be forced to serve as the Vikings' savior on Sunday Night Football.
Facing Hall is a Packers defense that's struggled mightily of late. Fellow rookie quarterback Bryce Young torched Green Bay for over 300 passing yards. However, the Packers did well to stop a relatively strong Carolina Panthers running game.
Will Green Bay once again shut down the run only to be burned through the air, or will Minnesota blast through the Packers' defensive front in an effort to help their rookie quarterback?
In addition to our NFL Week 17 predictions, our Packers vs. Vikings player props, and our Jordan Love player props, here is our best Packers vs. Vikings prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. Vikings prediction: Sunday Night Football
Ty Chandler Under 62.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Our biggest concern with this bet is the question marks surrounding Minnesota's game plan. Will the Vikings run the ball 30-plus times to take the pressure off Hall? And, even if they do, will Chandler get the bulk of those carries, or will Alexander Mattison work his way back into the fold?
Chandler has been impressive this season, but he's gone Over this number only twice. The first was against the Denver Broncos, who own one of the worst run defenses in the league, as Chandler recorded 73 rushing yards on just 10 carries.
The second time was thanks to much more volume, though he didn't exactly need it. Chandler rushed for 132 yards on 23 carries in Week 15, when Mattison was sidelined due to an injury. Chandler still handled eight of the Vikings' 10 running back carries in Week 16, but it's possible that changes against the Packers.
As a result of this bet being a bit hard to judge based on the knowledge one would gain from only watching games, we'll turn to the math.
Across eight different projection models, Chandler's projected rushing total is 60.09 yards. Now, that may seem dangerously close to the 63 he needs to go Over this number, but we're actually getting better than 14% positive expected value by playing the Under at bet365.
Additionally, among our best sports betting apps, bet365 is the only one offering -110 odds on the Under. DraftKings is sitting at -115 and BetRivers is still at 61.5 with the Under at -115.
Pinnacle, one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with the Under priced at -113 (still a shorter number than the one we're getting now). It then moved to -124 early Friday morning and has been bet to -130. That suggests there was at least somewhat significant action on the Under to push the line 17 points.
There are more unknowns than I'd typically like to make this a four-star play despite the solid expected value, so we'll keep this as a one-unit, three-star play.
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Packers vs. Vikings best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.5 | N/A | N/A | 61.5 | 62.5 |
| -125 | N/A | N/A | -115 | -110 |
Two of our best sports betting sites aren't offering either the rushing yards market or Chandler as an option as of Friday afternoon.
Something to note is that FanDuel will often offer rogue lines on player props, so it's possible it opens this market with a total of 63.5 or 64.5 for Chandler. If that happens, it will likely be the best sportsbook at which to play the Under.
One of the benefits of playing this prop at bet365 is that it offers cash-outs, so if FanDuel does open with a higher number, we can cancel our bet and instead play it elsewhere.
For the best price on this prop, be sure to use our exclusive bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS!
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Packers vs. Vikings odds for Sunday Night Football
Packers vs. Vikings odds analysis
The betting action on this game has thus far been relatively split down the middle, with 52% of the action on the spread coming in on the Packers, and 53% of the action on the total being on the Under.
The spread now ranges from a pick'em to the Packers being +1.5 at FanDuel. Meanwhile, the total has settled at 43.5 following the news that Hall will start at quarterback.
Sunday Night Football game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 31 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: Indoors
Packers-Vikings prediction made Friday at 1 p.m. ET.
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