Packers vs. Bears Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Love Leads Pack to Soldier Field
Our top Packers-Bears prediction is rooted in the best NFL odds as we take a look at the total in a game featuring two unproven quarterbacks.
Last year, Green Bay completed a regular-season sweep, extending their winning streak in this rivalry to eight games and maintaining their dominance over the Chicago Bears. However, with Aaron Rodgers having left Wisconsin for the bright lights of New York, Chicago has emerged as the favorite to defeat their NFC North rival.
Here is our best Packers vs. Bears prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Packers vs. Bears prediction
Under 42.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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Rodgers’ departure from Green Bay doesn’t necessarily mean that Chicago’s struggles against the Packers are over. Justin Fields and the Bears offense have had a tough time solving Green Bay’s stop unit, averaging just 14.5 points in last year’s two meetings and being held below 20 points in seven of the last nine meetings.
Fields has not consistently demonstrated his ability to win games primarily through his passing, which might allow Green Bay to deploy an extra defender in the box to target Chicago's running game. While Fields now has more receiving support with the addition of veteran D.J. Moore from Carolina, it might take some time for the duo to build a strong on-field connection and chemistry.
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On the other side of the ball, Love has shown flashes of potential during limited opportunities over the past few years, but head coach Matt LaFleur will probably keep things on the conservative side in Love’s debut. Love’s top weapons — Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs — were both limited in practice this week, making it even more likely that we see a healthy dose of the running game with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
One other factor that favors the Under in this spot: Green Bay’s kicking game. Soldier Field isn’t an easy place to kick for even the most veteran of kickers, let alone Anders Carlson who makes his first career start in place of the departed Mason Crosby. I liked the Under a lot more when it was in the mid-40s earlier this summer, but still see enough value to make Under 42.5 a three-star play.
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Packers vs. Bears best odds
FanDuel (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| 42 | 42.5 | 42.5 | 42 | 42 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
FanDuel and BetMGM are the best options for Under bettors at the time of writing because they had yet to move the total down to 42 like most of the market.
If you believe the Over is the better play, you can find 42 at DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365. None of these sites were shading their juice in either direction, dealing both sides of the total at the standard -110 price.
Packers vs. Bears odds
Packers vs. Bears odds analysis
Although oddsmakers weren’t quite willing to spot the Packers a full field goal in this spot, +2.5 with Green Bay was widely available less than a month ago. That line dropped to a consensus of Packers +1 by Wednesday evening, and we might see Green Bay as the favorite when this contest kicks off.
There’s also been one-way movement on the total, which has dipped from as high as 44.5 down to 42 at most sportsbooks.
Packers vs. Bears game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Soldier Field
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 74 degrees, 9-mph winds, 10% chance of precipitation
Packers-Bears prediction made Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET
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