Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Hyatt has been used sparingly while struggling to establish himself after being a third-round pick in 2023. He did showcase his speed while averaging 16.3 yards per reception as a rookie on 23 grabs, and that presence alone will be key to replacing Slayton, who is the team's main downfield threat without Nabers. 

A poor offensive line will likely force Dart to get creative around the goal line, and we've seen his mobility result in 109 rushing yards with a touchdown so far across just two starts.

Goedert has scored four times, including twice two weeks ago. We don't need him to bust free for a long saunter into the end zone to cash this bet. Goedert just needs to get there through any means, and he's been doing that consistently while being on the other end for all but three of the touchdown throws Jalen Hurts has tallied thus far.

A.J. Dillon played 14% and 15% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks, respectively. Though he totaled five carries for 29 yards, the Eagles are likely to deploy a run-heavy attack on a cold night in New Jersey, and starter Saquon Barkley could see some rest in the second half given the 7-point spread.

Though DeVonta Smith has only one touchdown this season, he caught eight of 10 targets for 114 yards a week ago in a much tougher matchup against the Broncos. He's played at least 91% of the offensive snaps in three straight weeks, and the Giants allow wide receivers to catch 65.5% of their targets for an 8.18-yard average with five touchdowns allowed to the position.

Though the game script is far from ideal with the Giants as a 7-point underdog, the low Over/Under suggest a ground-heavy game plan for both teams. Running back Cam Skattebo should also be used to help take the pressure off rookie QB Jaxson Dart in his first prime-time start in the NFL.

Dart threw up a stinker in Week 5, too, throwing for just 202 passing yards against the Saints despite dropping back 40 times. He's averaging 156.3 passing yards per game, and I'm expecting the Giants to continue to feed Cam Skattebo in an effort to keep the ball away from Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and Co., leaving the rookie quarterback with nothing but scraps.

This is a pure volume play, as Dart has logged 10 and seven carries over the last two weeks. The Eagles have also done a great job of getting to the quarterback and making the opposing signal-caller use his legs. That was on full display in Week 2 against the Chiefs, when the front seven allowed Patrick Mahomes to rush seven times for 66 yards. Pressure should come often against a subpar Giants offensive line.

Dart's arm has been nothing to write home about through two weeks. His highlights almost always involve the passer's legs, and I'm expecting the Eagles' secondary to lock him down one more time, especially with Malik Nabers on the sideline. 

Jaxson Dart has rushed for 50+ yards in both starts, while averaging a solid 5.7 YPC.

The Philadelphia run defense ranks 22nd in the league (126.8 rushing yards against per game). 

The Giants have allowed an average of 140.0 rushing yards per game (26th in NFL).

Coming off a game in which the Eagles suffered their first loss while only giving their bellcow running back six carries, this is the perfect matchup for a course correction to the more run-heavy script that they typically deploy.

The Eagles haven't won by large margins like they'll have to do on Thursday night, but they are 2-0 ATS on the road after scoring tough wins in Kansas City and Tampa.

The Giants have already lost three games by 12+ points this season.

The Giants' hype with Dart and Skattebo lasted about, what, one week? Yup, New York came crashing back down to Earth after losing to the Saints by two touchdowns in Week 5, and are now just a 7-point underdogs to the defending Super Bowl champions. Don't overthink this one.

Through five games, only one tight end has exploited the Giants' poor secondary: Dallas' Jake Ferguson went off for 78 yards in Week 2.

No other tight end has topped 26 yards against New York, and that includes Travis Kelce. So even though the Eagles' Dallas Goedert can be a force, I'm banking on quarterback Jalen Hurts to key on stud wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on Thursday night.

Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has put up pedestrian passing numbers in his first two NFL starts. However, his athleticism has been on full display, as he's left the pocket 17 times and gained 98 yards.

Dart probably will be running for his life again Thursday night, and I see no reason why he can't rack up at least 40 yards against an Eagles' defense that has let opposing QBs scamper for 104  yards on just 13 carries.

Jalen Hurts has an NFL-best 56 rushing touchdowns since the start of the 2021 season. However, the Eagles' quarterback failed to find the end zone each of the last two weeks.

That's exactly why I love his chances to score in New York on Thursday night. Because you have to go back to the middle of the 2022 campaign — a stretch of 52 regular season and playoff games — for the last time Hurts had a three-game scorless streak in the same season.

In the corresponding game last season, Barkley had a monstrous outing, running for 176 yards on 17 attempts. I'll be happy with half that total. 

The Giants have the worst run defense, via DVOA, and it's not even close. The G-Men are allowing the fourth-most yards per attempt (5.3), and have the third-worst defensive EPA per run.

The Eagles haven't won by more than seven points through five games. However, they'll have added motivation after conceding a fourth-quarter lead to the Denver Broncos. Also, the New York Giants struggled against the New Orleans Saints, turning the ball over five times.

This is less about the Giants - who fell back down to Earth in Jaxson Dart's second start - and more about the Eagles, whose five games this year have all been decided by seven points or fewer. I'm expecting a close affair on a short week for these NFC East rivals.

The Giants score the fifth-fewest points per game (17.4) and failed to eclipse 10 points twice. They have the third-worst offensive DVOA and are up against an Eagles defense that will be particularly sour after blowing a 14-point lead. 

Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins leads the team backfield in snaps, carries, and goal line carries. He has taken advantage of those numerous opportunities, also leading the NFL in explosive runs. 

Denver is 7-0 ATS when favored by at least 4.5 points since the start of last season. The New York Jets were dominated for the most part in their last four games, relying on garbage-time points or good fortune to keep  scores respectable. 

The Broncos have the third-best defensive EPA per play, the 10th-best defensive DVOA, and concede the second-fewest points per game (16.8). Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph's unit didn't allow any points against the Eagles after the 1:37 mark of the third quarter.

This might feel like a buy-high on the Broncos, but I simply can't bet the Jets in good conscience with how awful they've looked on both sides of the ball. I expect Denver's defense to make Justin Fields' life miserable for 60 minutes in London.

The Arizona Cardinals have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion, all on last-second field goals. It will be interesting to see how they pick themselves up from that, and if there are any effects of head coach Jonathan Gannon’s fine for how he dealt with running back Emari Demercado for his mental blunder last week.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has shot up the MVP odds leaderboard. Jones is the signal caller for an offense that has scored on 65% of its drives, the best by a team through five games in the last 45 years.

The Indianapolis Colts are the most efficient offense in the NFL, and they're facing an inconsistent Arizona team that inexplicably blew a 21-6 lead against the Tennessee Titans, one of the NFL's worst teams. 

The Cardinals have a nasty habit of letting every opponent catch fire in the second half, and the Colts have been blowing out lesser competition with ease. I don't expect this one to be close.

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua not only leads the league with 588 receiving yards, but he is also first in target rate (39.1%) among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run, second in yards per route (3.7), second in completed air yards per route (2.4), first in yards after the catch (208), and first in receptions over expectation (8.4).

Nacua now faces a Baltimore Ravens defense that allowed 44 points last week, their most allowed at home under head coach John Harbaugh. And Baltimore’s 35.4 points per game allowed this season are the most through five games by a playoff team from the previous season.

The Los Angeles Rams might rue the missed opportunity against the San Francisco 49ers, but they have a matchup against the injury-ravaged Baltimore Ravens to look forward to. The Ravens were inept on both sides of the ball against the Houston Texans, and they don't have the personnel to turn their fate. 

We all saw how pitiful the Ravens looked in that blowout loss to the Texans, but this is simply too many points for a group that should return some of its All-Pro talent in Week 6. That's enough for me to take the points on the home side against the Rams, who have seen four of five games decided by seven or fewer points.

Dallas' offense has been unstoppable for much of the season, and it's coming off another dominant performance against the New York Jets. The Carolina Panthers have been good at home, but their mediocre pass defense will probably have trouble containing Dak Prescott and Co. 

The Panthers may have found an offensive identity that is something they can build on the rest of the year, as running back Rico Dowdle rushed for 206 yards, the most by any player in a game this season.

Dallas has scored 35-plus points in three games this season. But this is a bad situational spot for the Cowboys, playing on the road in back-to-back weeks against a team in its second straight home game. 

Even after a comeback win against the Dolphins, I'm not convinced that the Panthers aren't the worst team in the NFL. The Cowboys are quietly efficient offensively and should be able to keep Bryce Young in check enough to cover a meager number.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a bye week, while the Cleveland Browns made the trans-Atlantic journey home after falling to the Minnesota Vikings in London. The Browns still haven't scored more than 17 points, and rookie QB Dillon Gabriel faces a daunting first road test. 

Dillon Gabriel isn't the long-term answer for Cleveland, but he's efficient enough in the short game to give the Browns a chance behind a truly elite defense. This is too many points in a compelling AFC North showdown.

The Seahawks rank fourth in Pass Rush Win Rate. Meanwhile, I expect regression from Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who was 4-for-6 for 91 yards with an interception, three sacks, and two rushing touchdowns in the 12 plays he faced pressure last week.

Prior to the devastating Week 5 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Seattle Seahawks had the best defensive DVOA and sixth-best offensive DVOA. They were a late Sam Darnold pick away from likely beating Tampa Bay. I like their chances of rebounding, as they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers after losing to the 49ers due to a late turnover. 

I'm all-in on the Seahawks, who sneakily rank in the top five in point differential (+41) and should have a better defensive effort after a blistering loss to the Bucs. This feels like a chance for Mike Macdonald to flex his coaching might against an inconsistent Jaguars offense.

Excluding the opening game, the Miami Dolphins have kept every game relatively close, including the 10-point defeat in Buffalo. They are the sizable home underdogs against the banged-up, reeling Chargers, who haven't resembled the team that started 3-0. 

The Chargers have lost two straight in inexplicable fashion, but I'd be truly shocked if they drop a third straight to the Dolphins, who only look competent against other dumpster fires. Expect Justin Herbert to make an MVP statement against an abhorrent Miami defense.

The New England Patriots have the eighth-best defensive run defense via DVOA, and they'll face a run-heavy attack in New Orleans. The Patriots are coming off a superb upset of the Buffalo Bills, while the Saints required five turnovers to get past the New York Giants. 

Can the Patriots carry the momentum of a monumental win over the Bills into a much easier test this week in New Orleans? I wouldn't bet this north of -3, but I do expect Drake Maye and Co. to beat the one-win Saints and keep pace in the AFC playoff field.

The Tennesse Titans were fortunate to escape Arizona with a victory, but they had the worst offensive DVOA and fourth-worst defensive DVOA prior to that miraculous Week 5 victory. 

This is the worst matchup of the week between two teams going nowhere in 2025. That makes it easy to take the points with the Titans, as I simply can't justify laying nearly a touchdown with a 1-4 team coming off a 34-point loss.

These days it is often a mystery who will suit up on offense for San Francisco. But we know we can trust backup quarterback Mac Jones, as he has a 6-1 TD-INT ratio and is 3-0 as a starter. And his 342 passing yards last week were his second-most in a game in his career, despite missing two of his best playmakers (Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings).

Jones hit the Over on this total in all three of his starts, averaging 302 per game. That stat is slightly inflated, however, due to playing an extra session in overtime against the Rams. That said, Jones is facing a Buccaneers team with the eighth-worst defensive pass DVOA. Tampa Bay's defense ranks in the bottom third of passing yards allowed per game (218.4) and opponent yards per pass attempt (6.8). 

Mayfield hit the Over on this total in only two of five games. And the 49ers have allowed more than 241 passing yards only once, last week against the Rams. However, the 49ers are still dealing with a rash of defensive injuries, which I expect will allow Mayfield to exceed the 241-yard threshold. 

The San Francisco 49ers need another week to heal before they'll resemble the team they expected entering the season. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers probably won't have Bucky Irving, I believe Baker Mayfield will have a field day with the 49ers injury-stricken secondary. 

Both of these teams enter Week 6 with a 4-1 record, but the Buccaneers have looked like the more impressive team behind a borderline MVP campaign from Baker Mayfield. Whether it's Mac Jones or Brock Purdy under center for San Francisco, I love the Bucs to win at home.

Yes, the Cincinnati Bengals have been awful without Joe Burrow. But this is a huge spread, and the Bengals showed a few glimpses of improvement in the second half against Detroit. Plus, they may decide to start Brett Rypien, which could inject some life into a team that badly needs resuscitation. 

I'd be inclined to stay away from this game because of the gargantuan number. But if I'm betting either side, it sure wouldn't be the Bengals, whose offense is an embarrassment with Jake Browning under center alongside a defense that can't generate any pressure. That's a brutal combo against one of the best teams in the NFC.

Detroit had the fourth-best offensive DVOA before handling the Cincinnati Bengals. They are firing on all cylinders and will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who have a short rest week and are no longer the same invincible team they once were. 

It’s not everyday one finds a team that is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games, 32-9 in its last 41, and 41-12 in its last 53 as underdogs. 

Not only is Detroit dominating its competition straight up, but it is also 51-21-1 ATS (70.8%) in the regular season since 2021, which trumps the best five-year ATS cover percentage (66.2%) of any team since 1990.

The Chiefs came alive last week in Xavier Worthy's return, but the Lions have played them well in recent years while looking like a potential juggernaut this season even without their coordinators from last year. I like the Lions to win outright.

Detroit’s 174 points are its most through five games of a season in franchise history. And Kansas City’s offense found its groove in Week 4 with the return of wide receiver Xavier Worthy.

In the Falcons’ last game action prior to last week’s bye, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. turned in his second career game with 300 passing yards, while running back Bijan Robinson totaled a career-high 181 scrimmage yards. 

Buffalo has been one of the league’s worst run defenses all season, but now can add to its list of concerns after allowing 61 yards after the catch to Stefon Diggs, his most in a game since 2022 when Josh Allen was throwing him passes.

If the Bills can slow down Bijan Robinson, the Falcons won't be able to keep pace with a Buffalo offense scoring over 30 per game. 

The Bills rarely lose two games in a row, and I suspect Josh Allen will have a field day against a Falcons defense that needs pressure to survive on the back end. Unless Michael Penix Jr. plays the game of his life, this will be a tough game for Atlanta to win.

While Chicago is off to a hot start and is 3-1 to the Over, this is the highest total posted for the Bears all season. It’s time to sell high on the Bears against the Commanders’ sturdy defensive line, which ranks third in run-stop win rate and 13th in pass-rush win rate.

It's hard to know what to expect from the Commanders given how little we've seen them at full strength. I was impressed by last week's win over the Chargers, though, and I'm skeptical of the Bears in a tough road spot against a legitimate contender.