Falcons vs. Panthers Week 14 Picks: Plug Your Nose and Pick the Panthers

Can the Carolina Panthers turn things around against a cold Atlanta Falcons team that they victimized back in late October? Find out with our Falcons and Panthers picks.

The Atlanta Falcons enter this one in the midst of an awful season, which has seen them fall to 5-7 and drop three of the last four contests. Those two wins happened to be the only two spreads it has covered in the last five, despite being spotted over a touchdown in the three losses.

The Carolina Panthers have covered and won just twice since its 3-0 start. Let that sink in. This is a very bad team that lost quarterback Sam Darnold first to mediocrity then injury, and which got a quick shot in the arm with Cam Newton’s return as a backup before losing the following two games, which he started.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 14 matchup between the Falcons and the Panthers (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a one-to-five-star scale).

Falcons vs. Panthers Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 12, 1 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NCWeather: 56 degrees, partly cloudy

Falcons vs. Panthers Odds Analysis

The Falcons opened up as three-point underdogs before the money flew in on them and pushed the line to 2.5 points. You’ll find this number across the board, with a hefty ticket split favoring Atlanta.

The total was initially 43.5 points and has been bet down at least a full point across the board with most sportsbooks hanging 42 points.

Falcons vs. Panthers Picks

Panthers -2.5 (-110) ???Under 42 (-110) ????

SEE ALSO: Cowboys vs. Washington Week 14 Picks

Falcons vs. Panthers Predictions

Panthers -2.5 (-110)

Do I have to? Fine. Both of these teams are awful, but if I’m taking a side it’s going to be the Panthers, laying the points.

Carolina is a mess right now offensively and even fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who had been widely praised for his work and seen as a future head coaching candidate. While that may not get a whole lot better, the Panthers should be able to rely on their defense, which ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass. While they’ve struggled to stop the run this year, the Falcons have no ground game to speak as they average just 88 yards per game on the ground. If you can stop Matt Ryan, you can stop this offense altogether.

Atlanta’s defense, meanwhile, is ranked an awful 29th in weighted DVOA. Carolina’s got a depressing feel to it right now without Christian McCaffery, but we at least saw in Week 10 against the Cardinals this team can move the ball on good defenses with its offensive line. Newton should continue as a red-zone threat and shouldn’t throw himself out of this one as he did against Miami. This defense just doesn’t have it.

Under 42 (-110)

Run, run, run. That’s all the Panthers will probably do in this one. They may pass early on as they establish a lead on one of the league’s worst defenses, but after that, the Panthers should play at a slow pace and control the ball for much of the game.

There is one thing that you can respect about the Panthers, and it’s this defense. The front seven, in particular, has been great — and it’s more than good enough to stop the lowly Falcons offense. Matt Ryan should be running for his life, and this corpse of an offense should only manage 10-14 points. That’s good enough to take the under.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Falcons-Panthers picks made on 12/9/2021 at 5:01 p.m. ET