Best DraftKings NFL Player Specials: Top Futures for the 2023 Season
Football is back, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has surveyed the Player Specials markets available through DraftKings and shares his top NFL picks based on the latest NFL odds.
How to bet NFL player specials
It’s tough to pluck a lot of value from the one-way markets available in the “Player Specials” menu via DraftKings, and most of the betting options should only be viewed through a recreational lens.
But there were a few that caught my eye and show value based on my projections and handicapping process:
- Create custom projections
- Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
- Convert the probability to odds
- Compare my odds with the DraftKings numbers
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Best DraftKings NFL Player Specials: Bets
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Drake London Over 1,250.5 receiving yards (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
I have London projected for 887 receiving yards, so at first glance, this wouldn’t appear to be a prop showing an edge. However, when running the numbers, I have London with a 22.6% chance of clearing the benchmark. I’d price this prop at +342, so interestingly enough this special is also presenting a positive expected value of 24% based on my projections.
It’s worth noting that London’s receiving-yards total through DraftKings is 825.5 (-120), and I’d price that prop at -122 for a positive expected value of just 1%.
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Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis 20+ combined regular season receiving touchdowns (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐
This is another prop where my projections fall well short of the required 20-TD benchmark, but my numbers give the Buffalo duo a better shot than the DraftKings odds. I have Diggs projected for 9.1 receiving touchdowns, and Davis pegged for 6.7. As a result, I’d price this prop at +359, which checks out at a positive expected value of 9% based on my numbers.
Ja’Marr Chase to have the most regular season yards from scrimmage of any Bengals player (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m turning this into a three-cat race with Chase the favorite to top running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tee Higgins in yards from scrimmage.
| Player | Projected yards from scrimmage |
|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase | 1,438 |
| Joe Mixon | 1,258 |
| Tee Higgins | 1,090 |
Based on my projections, I’d price Chase at -165 to pace the Bengals in yards from scrimmage, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 25% on the DraftKings price. Just note, my numbers are cutting the field down to three players, and there are obviously a couple of other play-makers set to hit the field for the Bengals.
Tua Tagovailoa to have the most regular season passing yards in the AFC East (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Based on my projections, there’s value backing Tagovailoa to lead the AFC East in passing yards. I have him pegged to finish second behind Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, but the +350 DraftKings price is longer than my +251 number. The difference is a positive expected value of 28%.
| Quarterback | Projected passing yards | My price to lead AFC East in passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 4,290 | +221 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4,098 | +251 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3,953 | +372 |
| Mac Jones | 3,558 | +481 |
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Jalen Hurts 4,000+ passing yards + A.J. Brown 1,000+ receiving yards during the regular season (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Not only is this a correlated parlay, I’m seeing a lot of value because I have Brown priced at -381 to reach quadruple-digit receiving yards based on a projection of 1,228 yards.
As a result, it’ll be Hurts required to do the heavy lifting for this bet to cash.
I have Hurts projected for 3,733 passing yards, so I’d price him to throw for 4,000 or more yards at +217. After plugging in the numbers with our parlay calculator, I landed at a +300 price for this parlay, so it carries a cushy positive expected value of 50% compared to the DraftKings odds.
T.J. Watt to record 20+ sacks (+1300 via DraftKings) ⭐
There are a couple ways to look at this prop:
- Watt recorded 22.5 sacks across just 15 games in 2021
- Watt was limited to just 10 games and 5.5 sacks in 2022
I have the Pittsburgh pass-rusher projected for 13.9 sacks, so I’d price this prop at +706. It’s a huge gap, and considering there have been only two 20-sack showings over the past eight seasons, it’s definitely a true flier.
Still, based on my numbers, the +1300 odds through DraftKings carry a positive expected value of 74% compared to my projection-based price.
Chase Young to record 8+ sacks (+275 via DraftKings) ⭐
Looking for another flier?
Young has hardly hit the field since winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award in 2020, and he’s also currently dealing with a neck injury and is uncertain for the season opener.
Still, I have Young projected for 6.1 sacks. His fifth-year option was declined by the Washington Commanders, so the 24-year-old has plenty of motivation to have a strong comeback showing. I’d price this prop at +218, so there’s a positive expected value of 18% attached based on my numbers.
It’s still a big risk given Young’s current injury status, though.
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