How to bet NFL player specials
It’s tough to pluck a lot of value from the one-way markets available in the “Player Specials” menu via DraftKings, and most of the betting options should only be viewed through a recreational lens.
But there were a few that caught my eye and show value based on my projections and handicapping process:
- Create custom projections
- Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
- Convert the probability to odds
- Compare my odds with the DraftKings numbers
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Best DraftKings NFL Player Specials: Bets
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Drake London Over 1,250.5 receiving yards (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
I have London projected for 887 receiving yards, so at first glance, this wouldn’t appear to be a prop showing an edge. However, when running the numbers, I have London with a 22.6% chance of clearing the benchmark. I’d price this prop at +342, so interestingly enough this special is also presenting a positive expected value of 24% based on my projections.
It’s worth noting that London’s receiving-yards total through DraftKings is 825.5 (-120), and I’d price that prop at -122 for a positive expected value of just 1%.
Stefon Diggs & Gabe Davis 20+ combined regular season receiving touchdowns (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐
This is another prop where my projections fall well short of the required 20-TD benchmark, but my numbers give the Buffalo duo a better shot than the DraftKings odds. I have Diggs projected for 9.1 receiving touchdowns, and Davis pegged for 6.7. As a result, I’d price this prop at +359, which checks out at a positive expected value of 9% based on my numbers.
Ja’Marr Chase to have the most regular season yards from scrimmage of any Bengals player (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m turning this into a three-cat race with Chase the favorite to top running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tee Higgins in yards from scrimmage.
|Player||Projected yards from scrimmage|
Based on my projections, I’d price Chase at -165 to pace the Bengals in yards from scrimmage, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 25% on the DraftKings price. Just note, my numbers are cutting the field down to three players, and there are obviously a couple of other play-makers set to hit the field for the Bengals.
Tua Tagovailoa to have the most regular season passing yards in the AFC East (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Based on my projections, there’s value backing Tagovailoa to lead the AFC East in passing yards. I have him pegged to finish second behind Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, but the +350 DraftKings price is longer than my +251 number. The difference is a positive expected value of 28%.
|Quarterback||Projected passing yards||My price to lead AFC East in passing yards|
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Jalen Hurts 4,000+ passing yards + A.J. Brown 1,000+ receiving yards during the regular season (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Not only is this a correlated parlay, I’m seeing a lot of value because I have Brown priced at -381 to reach quadruple-digit receiving yards based on a projection of 1,228 yards.
As a result, it’ll be Hurts required to do the heavy lifting for this bet to cash.
I have Hurts projected for 3,733 passing yards, so I’d price him to throw for 4,000 or more yards at +217. After plugging in the numbers with our parlay calculator, I landed at a +300 price for this parlay, so it carries a cushy positive expected value of 50% compared to the DraftKings odds.
T.J. Watt to record 20+ sacks (+1300 via DraftKings) ⭐
There are a couple ways to look at this prop:
- Watt recorded 22.5 sacks across just 15 games in 2021
- Watt was limited to just 10 games and 5.5 sacks in 2022
I have the Pittsburgh pass-rusher projected for 13.9 sacks, so I’d price this prop at +706. It’s a huge gap, and considering there have been only two 20-sack showings over the past eight seasons, it’s definitely a true flier.
Still, based on my numbers, the +1300 odds through DraftKings carry a positive expected value of 74% compared to my projection-based price.
Chase Young to record 8+ sacks (+275 via DraftKings) ⭐
Looking for another flier?
Still, I have Young projected for 6.1 sacks. His fifth-year option was declined by the Washington Commanders, so the 24-year-old has plenty of motivation to have a strong comeback showing. I’d price this prop at +218, so there’s a positive expected value of 18% attached based on my numbers.
It’s still a big risk given Young’s current injury status, though.
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