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Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills runs for a touchdown against the Washington Commanders as we share our favorite Dolphins vs. Bills prediction.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills runs for a touchdown against the Washington Commanders at FedExField on Sept. 24, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images via AFP.

The highest-scoring teams in the NFL are preparing to clash in Week 4 at Highmark Stadium, and we've got you covered with our prediction for the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills matchup, based on NFL odds sourced from our best sports betting apps.

In Week 3, the Miami Dolphins' offense dazzled against the Denver Broncos, scoring 70 points and amassing 726 yards, which propelled them to a 3-0 record; notably, they achieved this feat even without star wide receiver Jaylen Waddle.

On the other side, the Buffalo Bills delivered a commanding performance in Week 3, forcing five turnovers and maintaining possession for nearly 35 minutes in their 37-3 victory over the Washington Commanders. Additionally, the Bills have built up a plus-65 point differential over the past two weeks.

Here is our best Dolphins-Bills prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Bills prediction

Dolphins +2.5 (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Dolphins haven’t won in Buffalo since 2016. However, last season, they played in Orchard Park twice, and lost both games by three. In the Wild Card Round, Miami fell 34-31 as backup quarterback Skylar Thompson barely completed 35% of his passes.

At the moment, this Dolphins’ offense looks unstoppable. It averages 43.3 points per game, and though that's skewed by a 50-point win over the Denver Broncos, it averaged 30 per contest in the first two weeks.

But if the Dolphins are going to win this matchup, they’ll need their defense to show up. In the playoffs last year, Miami picked off Buffalo QB Josh Allen twice after failing to intercept him even once during the regular season. Allen already threw four interceptions this year. If he’s reckless in this game, his defense won’t be able to bail him out as they did in the past.

In the last two weeks, oddsmakers presented fishy lines in Dolphins games. They were favored by just 2.5 over the New England Patriots and 6 over the Denver Broncos. Yet, the Dolphins keep covering the spread. This week will be no different. In what should be a high-scoring contest, give me the offense with more weapons as part of our NFL predictions for Week 4.

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Dolphins vs. Bills best odds

Caesars (+100)


Only FanDuel offers +3. Their -115 price is slightly inflated, but it’s not as bad as it could be. However, this is a matchup we believe the Dolphins can win. Because of that we recommend taking +2.5 at any of the three best sportsbooks offering +100.

If you want the key number, FanDuel is the place to bet. They’re the only sportsbook currently offering a price of less than -120 for +3.

Dolphins vs. Bills odds

Dolphins vs. Bills odds analysis

The Bills opened at 3.5-point favorites, but that number quickly dropped to 2.5 after last week’s results. The spread now hovers around 2.5 or 3 depending on the book. More than 54% of wagers back Buffalo, but without an overwhelming amount of support for either side, expect this spread to stay between 2.5 and 3.5 throughout the week.

The total opened at 53.5, and despite 68% of wagers backing the Over, the number hasn’t moved. This is a really high number by NFL standards. Last week, we saw a similar situation where bettors backed the Over in the L.A. Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings game, but oddsmakers didn't move the line off 54.

Dolphins vs. Bills game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 77 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-mph winds

Dolphins vs. Bills prediction made Friday, 9/29/23 at 10:33 a.m. ET

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