Dolphins vs. Chargers Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 1: Tua Airs it Out in L.A.
The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers are set to face off in what should be one of the most exciting Week 1 matchups, so continue reading for our top Dolphins-Chargers predictions, based on the best NFL odds.
Can Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? If he can, the Dolphins have a chance to become serious AFC contenders. However, even when Tagovailoa was healthy last season, he didn't perform well against the Chargers, going just 10-for-28 with 145 yards and one touchdown as the Dolphins fell 23-17.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert performed significantly better in last year’s meeting, throwing for 367 yards and one TD, which led the Chargers to a much-needed late-season victory. Herbert is starting the season in good health and is surrounded by some of the best weapons in football. Can he secure another victory against Tua and the Dolphins?
Here is our best Dolphins vs. Chargers prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Chargers prediction
Tua Tagovailoa Over 254.5 passing yards (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
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When Tua is healthy, he's incredibly dangerous. Even when he can’t lead his team to victory or makes a lot of mistakes, he still manages to rack up passing yards. Last season, he threw for over 254.5 yards in nine of the 12 games in which he played in their entirety.
While it's clear that he had a subpar performance against the Chargers last year, even though they didn't have their top defense, that particular game seems to have been an anomaly in a season otherwise marked by strong and consistent performances.
Miami wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are back, which means explosive plays are in the cards for Week 1. The Chargers did have one of the best pass defenses in the league last season, allowing just 200.4 air yards per game, but these receivers will be fresh in the season opener, making them a tough matchup for anyone.
The reason we like this player prop instead of the Over is because these two defenses are more than capable of keeping this game in the low to mid-20s. As shown last season, even when yards are easy to come by, points may not be. This still should be an exciting back-and-forth contest, and with the absence of a great rushing attack, the Phins will rely on their guy to lead them to victory.
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Dolphins vs. Chargers best odds
Caesars (+100)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 254.5 | Over 252.5 | Over 254.5 | Over 254.5 | Over 254.5 |
| -115 | -114 | -115 | +100 | -110 |
Picking the right one of our best sports betting apps for this bet greatly increases the value of your wager. While FanDuel offers a total of 252.5, the price is -114. That’s still better than the 254.5 at -115 you'll find at DraftKings and BetMGM, but it’s not worth the price for two extra yards.
bet365 also offers a line of 254.5 at a price of -110, and we like this more than FanDuel. But Caesars is clearly the best place to wager. It offers 254.5 at +100. This is great value for the total with very little risk for a great reward.
Dolphins vs. Chargers odds
Dolphins vs. Chargers odds analysis
The Chargers opened as 3-point favorites, and though they've received 58% of wagers, that hasn't been enough to move the line at all. With the high-profile nature of this matchup, oddsmakers may just leave this spread at the key number considering this is one of the few games in Week 1 where either team can truly win.
The total opened at 51, and it hasn't moved despite overwhelming support for the Over. It seems bettors are willing to forget what happened between these two teams last season because they’re expecting a high-scoring affair. However, oddsmakers seem happy with where the number is. Maybe this goes up a half-point, but it's unlikely it hits or goes past 52.
Dolphins vs. Chargers game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 82 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
Dolphins-Chargers prediction made Friday, 9/8/23 at 10:47 a.m. ET
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