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Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys carries the ball as we look at his player props for Seahawks vs. Cowboys in TNF Week 13.
Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys carries the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter in the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Levi's Stadium on January 22, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images via AFP.

He may have been recently lighting up opponents through the air, but we expect Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott to reach the end zone through a different route during Thursday Night Football in our Dak Prescott NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

A new dark horse is making a mark in the 2023 NFL MVP race, rapidly closing the gap as we approach the final stretch. Following a four-touchdown performance against the rival Washington Commanders last week, Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has risen from +4000 to +800 in the NFL MVP odds at BetMGM, positioning him as the fifth choice entering Week 13.  

As Dallas prepares to face the Seattle Seahawks in a crucial Thursday Night Football matchup, the key question revolves around Prescott's ability to maintain this impressive pace against a desperate Seahawks team. This emphasizes his consistent performance's pivotal role in the Cowboys' pursuit of victory.  

To accompany our Seahawks vs. Cowboys prediction and our Seahawks-Cowboys player props, here are our best Dak Prescott NFL player prop predictions for the Seahawks vs. Cowboys Week 13 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dak Prescott NFL player prop predictions for Week 13

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Dak Prescott player props

Dak Prescott Over 35.5 passing attempts (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even though Dallas has won four of its last five games by 23 points or more, the Dallas Cowboys have been dropping Dak back at an extremely high rate. Prescott has attempted at least 31 throws in each of those five games despite being relieved by Cooper Rush in three of them, and he’s thrown 35+ passes in three of his last four.

With the struggling Seattle Seahawks desperate for a victory, I’m not expecting the Cowboys to open up such a big lead that Prescott takes an early seat. Teams also love to throw against the Seahawks, who saw opposing quarterbacks attempt at least 34 passes in seven of their 12 games this season. And when Prescott has dropped back to pass in recent weeks, he’s been able to consistently get his throws off behind an offensive line that hasn’t allowed a sack in three straight games.

Our Philip Wood thinks CeeDee Lamb may benefit from Dak airing it out in his CeeDee Lamb prop picks.

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Dak Prescott Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+180 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Every man has his price, and the chance at nearly a 2:1 return on Prescott throwing less than two touchdown passes meets the threshold for mine. Yes, Prescott has been on an absolute tear, throwing for 17 TDs over his last five games, but that unsustainable rate is also due for some regression against a Seattle defense that has defended the pass fairly well near the end zone.

In fact, the Seahawks have allowed one touchdown pass or less in five of their last six games, six of their last eight, and seven of 11 games overall. Seattle’s red zone defense is far more vulnerable to the run, allowing three rushing touchdowns last week and 14 on the season.

Prior to his recent hot run, Prescott managed one TD pass or less in five of the Cowboys’ first six games, a stretch that included blowout victories over the New England Patriots, New York Jets and New York Giants. If you put your recency bias aside and look at the season-long numbers as a whole, getting +180 on this prop at bet365 suddenly looks like great value.

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Dak Prescott Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns (+500 via bet365) ⭐⭐

Prescott runs have actually been some of Dallas’ most efficient offensive plays this season. Fifteen of the quarterback’s 28 scrambles this season have resulted in first downs, a success rate that is more than double the NFL average of 23%.

I already noted Seattle’s vulnerability to the run in the red zone when breaking down the previous Dak Prescott prop, and Prescott has shown an ability to capitalize in the past, running for six touchdowns in each of his first three seasons in the NFL.

He’s called his own number a lot less in the past three years, running for just four majors since the start of 2021, but that’s a big reason we get a chance at this generous +500 price at one of our best sports betting sites. And as I already mentioned, Dallas’ offensive line is giving their quarterback plenty of protection — one more reason to think he could stroll into the end zone himself Thursday against Seattle.

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Dak Prescott player prop picks made 11/28/2023 at 8:00 p.m. ET.

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