Broncos vs. 49ers Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
Kyle Shanahan will become the longest-tenured head coach in 49ers history today, but my Broncos vs. 49ers prediction expects Sean Payton to rain on his parade.
The 49ers are a 3-point betting favorite, but there are several rogue numbers on the screen. Kickoff from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., is set for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS).
🏈 Broncos vs. 49ers picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 4 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Broncos +3.5 (-125 via BetRivers) | 1.88 units to win 1.5 units |
| Over 47.5 (-112 via BetRivers) | 0.56 units to win 0.5 units |
Total wagered: 2.44 units | Max profit: +2 units
💰 Broncos vs. 49ers prediction & best bet
Broncos +3.5 (-125 via BetRivers)
I wouldn't be surprised if Bo Nix and the Broncos pull off the upset today. The 49ers' strength of schedule has been laughable, as they faced the Rams - who have played much worse than their preseason expectations - and were favored by more than seven points in each of their other two games.
San Francisco now faces a Broncos team that ranks 10th in defensive EPA per pass (-0.13), while the 49ers rank 17th (-0.02). While Nix has been somewhat of a dink-and-dunk quarterback, he should have success against a 49ers defense that is dealing with several moving parts (Matthew Judon making his debut, multiple key injuries, etc.).
While Purdy recorded an 85.1 QBR against the Cardinals last time out, the 49ers allowed 30 points, resulting in a non-cover for San Francisco. The Broncos' defense allows a lower success rate (43.63%) than the 49ers' (44.62%), and I imagine Davis Webb's offense will be able to score enough to keep this game close.
📡 SBR Edge: Devigging Pinny
If you devig Pinnacle's alt spread on this game (we're devigging Pinnacle since it's taking $100,000 a side at the time of publication), you end up with Broncos +3.5 (-125.3) as your no-vig odds. So, by playing Broncos +3.5 (-125 via BetRivers), we're getting better than fair odds on this side of the spread.
The sacks are getting louder for Purdy
It's hard to take the 49ers' stats seriously when you look at their past opponents.
One of those stats is that the 49ers have yet to allow a sack through three games. It's much easier to produce a stat like that when you face the Dolphins and Cardinals, who rank 32nd and 30th in defensive EPA per pass, respectively.
The Broncos are a whole different animal. They lead the NFL with 139 sacks since 2024 and will likely be the 49ers' offensive line's first real test to keeping Purdy safe in the pocket. I'm expecting Purdy to get sacked at least twice today, which should help the Broncos stay within the 3-point spread.
Score prediction: 49ers 26, Broncos 24
📊 Broncos vs. 49ers odds
Broncos vs. 49ers opening odds
- Moneyline: Broncos +125 | 49ers -145
- Spread: Broncos +2.5 (+100) | 49ers -2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 46 (-110) | Under 46 (-110)
📺 How to watch Broncos vs. 49ers: Week 4
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
- TV: CBS
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