Commanders vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: NFL Preseason Week 1

The Mike Vrabel era gets underway tonight for the Patriots when they host Commanders, but can they open the preason with a win?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 8, 2025 8:39 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Commanders vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: NFL Preseason Week 1 — Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Joshua Dobbs throws a pass as we make our best Commanders vs. Patriots prediction. Photo by Eric Canha via Imagn Images.

The Mike Vrabel era gets underway on Friday night as he leads the New England Patriots into their first preseason action against the Washington Commanders, and we have you covered with our Commanders vs. Patriots prediction. This game will kick off from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough at 7:30 p.m. ET.

New England is a 6.5-point home betting favorite at our best sports betting sites, but we make a case against the home favorites. We break down this game and more in our NFL predictions and odds today.

Take a peek at the rest of our NFL preseason Week 1 predictions.

🏈 Commanders vs. Patriots predictions & expert picks

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✅ Against the spread pick: Commanders +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ My best bet: Under 34.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Commanders vs. Patriots ATS prediction

🎖️ Commanders +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM ($10 to win $9.09)
🔢 Implied probability: 52.38%

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Earlier in the week, there were troubling signs out of New England’s camp, particularly on offense. Patriots insider Phil Perry and Darren Hartwell both reported on the team’s difficulties scoring in the red zone and other turnover issues from intrasquad scrimmages.

Even though second-year quarterback Drake Maye has only 12 starts under his belt, this game will be more in the hands of backups Joshua Dobbs and Ben Woolridge.

Considering Dobbs is on his fifth team in five years after going 3-12 as a starter, I trust Washington’s backup quarterback room of Marcus Mariota and Josh Johnson more, who have 19 years and 83 NFL starts between them.

This line is up five points at most of our best sports betting sites from an opening number of -1.5. But I believe that is because of too much hype surrounding Vrabel in his first game, and I would play this line all the way down to -5.

📖 Check out our 2025 NFL preseason betting guide for the best betting strategies and full NFL preseason schedule.

💰 Commanders vs. Patriots best bet

⬇️ Under 34.5 ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -108 via DraftKings ($10 to win $9.26)
🔢 Implied probability: 51.92%

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With the Commanders and Patriots benefitting from practicing against one another this week, I expect the advantage in this preseason game to tilt towards the defenses.

Both head coaches, Dan Quinn and Mike Vrabel, are defensive-minded and would love nothing better than to start the season with a solid performance on that side of the ball.

In addition, with Terry McLaurin amid a contract dispute and fellow wide receiver Noah Brown having been dealing with an injury, I expect Washington to lean heavily on its ground game with few downfield playmakers emerging in camp early.

Use a DraftKings promo code to get the O/U of 34.5 with less than the standard -110 juice on the Under.

📊 Commanders vs. Patriots odds

Live updated odds from our best live betting sites. Follow the latest NFL scores for line history and matchup info.

🪧 Commanders vs. Patriots opening odds:

Commanders: +1.5 (+100)
Patriots: -1.5 (-120)

🚑 Commanders vs. Patriots injuries

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”