Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction, SNF Picks & Odds: Sunday Night Football
The Atlanta Falcons look to knock the Kansas City Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeatens when they host them at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock).
- Our Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction analyzes why Kansas City is ripe for an upset based on the Sunday Night Football odds
- If the Falcons can beat the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, they would take a massive step forward in the Super Bowl odds
- Patrick Mahomes tops the NFL MVP odds, but our best player prop involves the quarterback on the other sideline
We round out our NFL Week 3 predictions with our Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction for Sunday Night Football.
Best Chiefs vs. Falcons picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Falcons +3 (-102 via FanDuel) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Kirk Cousins Under 229.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chiefs vs. Falcons spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
Falcons to cover the spread: +3 (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I already picked the Falcons to beat the Chiefs as part of my NFL upset picks, so getting a field goal on the point spread is an added bonus.
We also feature this pick as one of our legs in our Chiefs vs. Falcons SNF parlay.
It seems the sharpest bettors agree with that, as Kansas City is attracting 58% of the wagers, yet the line has come down considerably from an opening number of -4.5.
Pacheco’s injury looms large
The Chiefs lost starting running back Isiah Pacheco to a broken fibula. They were clearly not comfortable with the stable of backs they already had on the roster and signed Kareem Hunt this week.
Hunt has spent the last five years with the Cleveland Browns, and his production has declined significantly since the days of his league-high 1,327 rushing yards in 2017.
Hunt’s best year with Cleveland was in 2020 when he rushed for 841 yards, and he's coming off a 411-yard season last year.
Mahomes to struggle again?
Mahomes is coming off his first career game with two or more interceptions and fewer than 200 passing yards. In addition, his 151 passing yards were his fewest in a game that he finished in his career.
However, our Phil Wood anticipates a bounce-back effort with his Patrick Mahomes SNF player props.
Atlanta pressures the quarterback at a 22.2% rate, the lowest in the NFL. But that was likely by design after facing two of the league’s most mobile quarterbacks, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts, through the first two weeks.
Despite the lack of pressure generated, the Falcons have still not allowed more than 183 passing yards in a game, and with Kansas City’s running game compromised, the Falcons can likely sit back even more in coverage.
The only thing keeping this from being our most confident five-star play is the fact that Mahomes is 17-4 in September since taking over as the Chiefs' starting quarterback in 2018.
Given that the juice is so low at FanDuel to back the underdogs (and is also -105 at BetMGM and bet365), there is a good chance that this line ticks back up to +3.5 before kickoff, so I would not put anyone off waiting to get the Falcons at a better number.
Regardless, our $10 wager would net $9.80 in profit if it cashes.
Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%
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Chiefs vs. Falcons player prop
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Kirk Cousins Under 229.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Quarterbacks have gone Under their passing yards props in 42 of the 64 instances entering Week 2. I project Cousins to add to this trend this week given the amount of pressure he figures to face from the Chiefs.
Against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ ferocious pass rush in Week 1, Cousins produced a 1.0 QBR in the second half and threw for just 19 yards. That game, he was in shotgun or pistol formation for 82% of dropbacks and produced a 6.0 yards per attempt average, a 1-2 TD-INT ratio, and a minus-6% completion percentage over expectancy.
Kansas City blitzes at the fifth-highest rate and pressures opposing quarterbacks at the seventh-highest rate, and Cousins’ passing grade when facing pressure ranks 19th.
This is also a four-star play, as there is great value for Under backers at FanDuel, as Cousins’ O/U is as low as 224.5 at our other best sports betting sites.
We also looked at Cousins' passing yards total with our Chiefs vs. Falcons SNF prop bets.
A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.77.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
Chiefs vs. Falcons odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Chiefs vs. Falcons
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chiefs (-160 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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