NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 5: ATS Predictions for Every Game
As I offer my NFL Week 5 ATS picks, the Las Vegas Raiders are the only team with a perfect 4-0 ATS record.
And no, this isn’t an alternative reality. The Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only three teams without an ATS cover.
Featuring the Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, and Buffalo Bills, let’s get into this week’s picks.
🏈 NFL picks against the spread: Week 5 ATS predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 5 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Giants vs. Commanders (-3.5) | Commanders (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (-8.5) | Cowboys (-8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bills (+3) vs. Rams | Bills (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Colts (+2.5) vs. Steelers | Colts (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars (-7) | Jaguars (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bears (-2.5) vs. Packers | Bears (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Lions (-5) vs. Cardinals | Lions (-5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Raiders vs. Patriots (-3.5) | Patriots (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bengals (-7.5) vs. Dolphins | Bengals (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans (-7) vs. Titans | Texans (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Browns vs. Jets (-2) | Browns (+2) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vikings (-1.5) vs. Saints | Vikings (-1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Broncos (-3.5) vs. Chargers | Chargers (+3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks (-3) | 49ers (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens vs. Falcons (-3) | Falcons (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Best ATS pick for Week 5
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 5.
Giants vs. Commanders (-3.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jayden Daniels is expected to return to the Commanders lineup for the rivalry game against the New York Giants. Daniels is 3-0 against the Giants, with a 70.4% completion rate, three TD passes and no interceptions.
While it’s unclear whether his recent elbow injury will make him more hesitant in scampering, I have immeasurably more faith in Daniels than Jameis Winston.
It’s like watching a circus show every time Winston takes the field. For a split second against the Arizona Cardinals, he looked like Josh Allen. Unfortunately, he resembles Spencer Rattler much more often.
Winston, who tossed two picks and three TDs in a topsy-turvy outing against the Cardinals, escaped with a victory. He won’t be so lucky this time around.
🔬 SBR EDGE-Commanders’ impressive record after a defeat
The Commanders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
🔥 More Week 5 picks
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (-8.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The 8.5-point spread scares me too. However, the Cowboys are rolling offensively, amassing 102 points in the previous three games. That’s an average of 34 points per game. Overall, the Cowboys are scoring the second-most per game (30.5), tied with the San Francisco 49ers.
Dak Prescott and Co. face a beleaguered Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that lacks confidence and formidable offensive weapons. Rookie Jalon Daniels struggled in his first start, tossing two picks and mustering just 148 yards against the Green Bay Packers.
He won’t have as much trouble against a comparatively poor Cowboys defense, but I cannot see Daniels keeping up with the Cowboys’ high-powered offense, particularly in Arlington, where they scored 37 points in their lone actual home game.
Bills (+3) vs. Rams⭐⭐⭐⭐
This game between powerhouses has all the makings of a back-and-forth affair. The Bills lost 44-42 the last time Allen and Co. ventured to SoFi Stadium in 2024.
The Bills are 6-1 in their previous seven after suffering a loss. Those six victories came by an average of 16.3 points.
In Week 4, the Rams escaped with a four-point victory in Philadelphia, but that was more due to the Eagles’ litany of injuries and offensive ineptitude down the stretch.
The Rams have been inconsistent through the first four weeks, and their only complete game came against an incoherent Giants team after they lost Jaxson Dart on the first possession.
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