Patrick Mahomes SNF Player Prop Bets: Sunday Night Football
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, and he looks due for a big game after an underwhelming performance.
The Chiefs are road favorites on Sunday night in Atlanta by the latest Sunday Night Football odds. However, this is expected to be a tightly contested game, as the spread is just more than a field goal, making it among the most exciting games we featured in our NFL Week 3 predictions.
The Falcons’ secondary has been pretty solid to start the season, which will play a role when determining your Patrick Mahomes SNF player prop bets.
As previously mentioned, Mahomes only threw for 151 yards last week, but the Chiefs will be without Isiah Pacheco this week.
Will Carson Steele and Samaje Perine find room to run against the Falcons ‘ defense, or is Mahomes destined to put the offense on his back?
Patrick Mahomes prop predictions for Sunday Night Football
- Patrick Mahomes Over 266.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 passing attempts (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes 3+ passing touchdowns (+235 via bet365) ⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Sunday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Patrick Mahomes player props
NFL picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Patrick Mahomes Over 266.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes really struggled last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. He finished just 18-of-25 for 151 yards, and he threw two interceptions. This week, he faces a defense that held Jalen Hurts to just 183 passing yards.
Yet, I still like the Over because the Chiefs’ offense will be very one-dimensional on Sunday night. Steele and Perine will get carries, but they won’t be very effective.
Mahomes will end up throwing more passes than usual (more on that in a bit), and he will find success against a defense that isn’t very good at targeting fast No. 1 wide receivers.
This total is set around 266.5 to 269.5 at the best sports betting sites. BetMGM isn’t offering the best price, but it’s comparable to others being offered for higher totals, making it the most valuable line.
Both our Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction and Chiefs vs. Falcons SNF prop bets foresee Mahomes' counterpart, Kirk Cousins, struggling in comparison.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 passing attempts (-125) ⭐⭐⭐
I teased that Mahomes is going to throw more than usual, and I truly believe he will. But this number is simply too high.
Mahomes threw 28 passes in Week 1 and only 25 in Week 2. With Pacheco out, Mahomes will top both of those numbers, but will he really throw the ball 37 times?
Mahomes did throw at least 37 times in 13 of his 20 games last season, which is why this only a three-star play. But the Chiefs will run the ball even if they’re not effective, and the Falcons’ secondary will be exposed as they struggle to cover both Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. This will lead to chunk plays, rather than a lot of attempts.
DraftKings has the number at 37.5, while bet365 has it at 35.5. All of the best sports betting apps except for bet365 favorthe Under, but I don’t feel comfortable taking Under 35.5 in this situation even if the price is +110.
Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%
Patrick Mahomes 3+ passing touchdowns (+235) ⭐⭐
Without Pacheco, the Chiefs’ offense is a bit of an unknown. We all know what Mahomes is capable of, so with so much up in the air, the best thing to do with this third prop is take a chance on something with good odds.
Mahomes threw more than two touchdown passes in only two of his 20 games last season. In 2022, he topped that number nine times.
Last season was a down year, and Mahomes has started this season in the same fashion. Yet, without Pacheco to steal touchdowns, expect Andy Reid to get creative near the goal line, which will lead to this cashing.
The price for Over 1.5 touchdown passes is absurd at all of the best sportsbooks. Since there is no value in taking that total, we’re instead backing this alt line for a much better price.
Best odds: +235 via bet365 | Implied probability: 29.85%
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Chiefs vs. Falcons odds
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Chiefs vs. Falcons
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga.
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Chiefs (-165 via bet365)
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