Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: NFL Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick This Week

It was another successful week for our NFL survivor pool picks in Week 4, as we advanced the Ravens (safest pick), Vikings (best pick), and Packers (strategy pick) despite all three playing one-score games. All of that avoided two of last week’s top six favorites (Bills and Lions) that lost outright.

I try not to have as many nail-biting results with my NFL Week 5 predictions, as I’m fading a Buccaneers team with a backup quarterback on a short week while also explaining why picking against a hot team off to a 3-1 start makes for the best strategic play.

🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 5

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔒 Safest NFL survivor pick: Cowboys (84.3%) over Buccaneers

Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 5.

The Buccaneers are off to their first 0-4 start since 2013, a year where they finished 4-12. It may give some pause to back Dallas in this game given that Tampa Bay has played 10 straight one-score games, the longest streak in team history. But the Buccaneers are just 2-8 in those games, and Dallas’ defensive issues shouldn’t be exposed by a Jalon Daniels-led offense that managed just 275 total yards and 4.5 yards per pass last week.

Dallas allowed eight pass plays of 20-plus yards to Houston, so I’m making sure I use the Cowboys in survivor pools against an opponent I do not fear will throw all over them.

✅ Best NFL survivor pick: Bengals (78%) over Dolphins

Many will be down on Cincinnati this week after Joe Burrow was pressured on 34.5% of dropbacks against the Jaguars, his highest pressure rate since 2024 Week 11. But Miami’s defense entered Week 4 as the only team in the league yet to record a sack, and its offense didn’t cross midfield in the loss to Minnesota until its first possession of the third quarter.

Burrow had a chance to lead the Bengals on a touchdown-leading drive in the fourth quarter against a stout Jaguars defense last week, but was picked off in the red zone. 

This becomes a much more confident play if Ja’Marr Chase clears concussion protocol and is active this week. Even if he is ruled out, I don’t worry about Burrow’s turnover issues against a Dolphins defense that entered Monday as one of 10 with three or fewer takeaways.

🤔 NFL survivor strategy pick: Patriots (65.8%) over Raiders

The Patriots still play four games against the Dolphins and Jets, with two of those games happening in the next three weeks. But if one was worried about the Cowboys defense on a short week or had the Bengals on upset alert, you could do a lot worse than using New England against the 3-1 Raiders in survivor pools this week.

New England’s offense should be riding high after scoring four offensive touchdowns against the Bills, two more than they entered the game with for the season. And while New England is just 2-2, Las Vegas has shown its inability to beat good teams, losing 15 straight games against teams that entered with a winning record.

❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Texans (76.5%) over Titans

The Texans took a gut-punching loss to the Cowboys in a game they never trailed through three quarters to fall to 0-4 for the fourth time in franchise history. 

Tennessee is a great opponent to get right against, seeing as it is 0-4 in back-to-back seasons for the second time in team history, while losing six straight games dating back to last season. But just one team has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start (the 1992 Chargers), and I worry about locker room morale. In addition, Houston’s vaunted defense again let up 30-plus points, including Dak Prescott’s 16.6 yards per attempt against the blitz (his most in a game since 2024 Week 4).

💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 5

Entering Monday, 305 of the 6,285 entries that were still alive in the Circa Sports survivor pool entering Week 4 were eliminated, with the Bills responsible for 178 of those eliminated entries. Thus, just 4.8% of the remaining entries were eliminated prior to Monday Night Football, which was by far a season low for the contest.