Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 11

The Kansas City Chiefs, the only undefeated team left in the NFL, are road underdogs when they face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

• The Chiefs are the 32nd team in NFL history to start 9-0 but are just the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to enter a game as underdogs with that record
• Kansas City, the Super Bowl odds favorite, is amid a 15-game winning streak (including playoffs), but seven of its nine wins this season have been by seven or fewer points
• Buffalo has won the last three regular-season meetings against the Chiefs

Given how successful Patrick Mahomes is as an underdog, our Chiefs vs. Bills prediction expects the Chiefs to cover on the road. Kickoff for this massive AFC clash, part of our Week 11 NFL predictions, is set for 4:25 p.m. ET, airing on CBS. 

Best Chiefs vs. Bills picks

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Bills ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Patrick Mahomes longest completion Under 34.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chiefs vs. Bills against the spread prediction: Week 11

Chiefs to cover the spread: +2.5 (ODDS) ⭐⭐⭐

Chiefs vs. Bills opening odds:

• Chiefs: -1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
• Bills: +1.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Chiefs can play keep away

The Chiefs' defense has faced just 87 drives this season, six fewer than any other team. That is because while Kansas City ranks 19th averaging 5.2 yards per play, its offense knows how to sustain long drives.

The Chiefs' offense ranks first in 10-play drives (26), plays per drive (6.8), and time of possession (33:01) while averaging 22 first downs per game (ranks fourth).

Allen’s rising turnover rate is an issue

In Josh Allen’s first seven games, he posted a 12-0 TD-INT ratio, was off-target on just 17% of his passes, and had a 78 Total QBR. Over the last three games, he has a 5-4 TD-INT ratio, was off-target on 20% of his passes, and had a 56 Total QBR.

Allen’s four interceptions since Week 8 are tied for the third-most of any quarterback. That is important because Kansas City went 7-1 last year when it won the turnover battle and 4-5 when it had more turnovers than its opponent.

This year, the Chiefs have only lost the turnover battle three times in nine games but still won those games by a combined 14 points.

Trust the Chiefs more in crunch time

The Chiefs have allowed zero points and just 20 total yards when trailing in the fourth quarter this season. Meanwhile, Mahomes has stepped up in crunch time, with five total touchdowns and zero giveaways in the fourth quarter.

Mahomes is a profitable 11-3 SU as an underdog and is 26-8-1 ATS when his teams have been underdogs or favored by three or fewer points.

I do not understand why the line jumped the fence from Kansas City -1.5, especially with Buffalo’s skill position injury concerns. Keon Coleman has already been ruled out, and fellow wide receiver Amari Cooper (wrist) and tight end Dalton Kincaid (knee) remain questionable.

I am jumping on any +2.5s I can find, as the line would likely move in Kansas City’s favor if Cooper and/or Kincaid are ruled out. BetMGM is the only one of our best NFL betting sites where one can back the Chiefs at +2.5 for the standard -110 juice (FanDuel is juiced to -115).

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Chiefs vs. Bills best bet

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Patrick Mahomes longest completion Under 34.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mahomes has completed at least one 35-yard in six of nine games this season. But his longest completion has been exactly 35 yards in three games (including each of the last two), so it does not take much regression for him to cash this Under.

Per ESPN staff writer Bill Barnwell, Mahomes ranked 27th in QBR on deep throws in 2023 and has only six deep completions in nine games this season.

He was expected to improve tremendously in that metric with Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown on the roster, but Xavier Worthy is the only true healthy field stretcher the Chiefs have. Mahomes has completed just one deep pass to DeAndre Hopkins since Kansas City traded for him.

Buffalo has consistently frustrated Mahomes in regular season matchups, winning all three games while holding him to a 46 Total QBR. I expect the Bills to make Mahomes dink-and-dunk his way down the field once again, which is why this play gets four stars.

The Under is juiced as high as -120 at BetMGM (carrying a 54.55% implied probability). Thus, the best value is at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager would pay $18.70.

Our Phil Wood dives deeper into the outlook for Mahomes in his Patrick Mahomes player prop bets, and Gabe Henderson looked to the opposing sideline in his Josh Allen player prop bets.

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Chiefs vs. Bills odds

See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.

Chiefs vs. Bills game info

• When: Sunday, Nov. 17
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: 54 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph S
• Favorite: Bills -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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