Free NFL Picks: Predictions & Best Bets

Stroud just ... doesn't have it this year. After throwing for four touchdowns against the lowly Ravens, he's thrown an interception in back-to-back games and hasn't had a great game against a top-10 defense all season long. Sure, he's beaten up on Tennessee, Baltimore, and San Francisco, but he threw for 204 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars, 207 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 188 against the Los Angeles Rams. I don't see a path to going over this number against the Denver Broncos.

Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins has scored just one touchdown in the last five games. It would not be surprising to see him lose more work down the stretch to rookie R.J. Harvey, who is coming off the first multi-touchdown game of his career.

Dobbins has averaged 15 touches per game, and faces a Texans defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per rush to running backs. Houston is also bottom-six in explosive runs to the position.

I’d feel a lot more confident in this pick if Denver’s defense weren't without cornerback Patrick Surtain, who is expected to miss multiple games with a left pectoral strain. But it is still a Broncos defense that leads the league in QBR, completion percentage, sacks, and third-down conversion rate.

Denver is rolling and Houston struggled against the Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 7, which should resemble what the Broncos will bring to NRG Stadium. 

Still trying to figure out how the Broncos are underdogs here. The Texans are 3-4 and have put up stinkers against Seattle, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Los Angeles - it's not necessarily a good track record. Give me Bo Nix and that Denver defense here, who are coming off a 20-point win against the high-flying Cowboys.

It's hard to ignore the Texans' impressive win last week, but the Broncos have been doing it all season long with even greater success. Godspeed to Houston's offensive line in this one.

Tracy Jr. saw double-digit carries in nine games last year, and went over this projected total six times.

The New York Giants have been good at home and the San Francisco 49ers don't get any healthier as time goes on. It's shaping up to be a challenging road game.  

How will the Giants look in their first full game without rookie running back Cam Skattebo, the heart and soul of this team? I suspect it'll be close throughout before San Francisco pulls away late.

The Steelers are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends (six). Warren is set up well then, especially after he's scored in three of his last four games and tallied 60-plus receiving yards five times this season.

The Indianapolis Colts have shown no signs of regression, and I can't back the Steelers after they imploded at home in the second half against the Green Bay Packers. The Steelers' offense was too predictable, while the Colts' offense is anything but. 

While I don't want to buy too high on the Colts, this doesn't feel like enough respect for the NFL's winningest team through eight weeks - especially with Pittsburgh's defense playing like one of the worst units in football.

Carolina was woeful against Buffalo in Week 8, while the Green Bay Packers enjoyed a superb second half in Pittsburgh. The jury is still out on whether Bryce Young will suit up. Even if he does, the Panthers are much worse on enemy terrain.  

The Packers are clearly the better team in this matchup, but they've been caught playing with their food this year, and this spot has real letdown potential after last week's emotional win over Aaron Rodgers and Co.

Since returning from their bye, the Minnesota Vikings' secondary has been getting torched, giving up six passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. Now, they take on the third-best scoring offense and the fourth-most efficient red-zone offense in the NFL. Enter burner Jameson Williams, who's in a great spot to hit pay dirt. Minnesota has given up a 37-yard, 79-yard, and a 27-yard score over the last two weeks, which is an absolute dream for No. 1. The volume will be there, and Williams will be one of the many mouths that get fed come Week 9.

J.J. McCarthy's return couldn't come under more challenging conditions as he and his Vikings face a rampant Detroit Lions team at Ford Field with the fifth-best offensive DVOA and the best defensive DVOA. 

If you're reticent to lay the big number here, just turn on the tape of Carson Wentz over the last few weeks ... and remember that J.J. McCarthy was arguably even worse early in the year. Detroit coming off a bye should deliver a statement win at home to keep pace in the NFC North.

McConkey has scored in three of his last four games entering Sunday's contest against a defense allowing 28.8 points per game.

Ward has thrown a touchdown in three consecutive games, but he's yet to throw multiple in a single contest, and he has three games without one. The Chargers have allowed just eight passing touchdowns this season.

Vidal has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, and the Titans are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game and yards per carry.

The Titans have lost six of eight games by at least 10 points, and the Los Angeles Chargers are starting to get some key players back. 

Even after yet another blowout, I can't seem to quit these Titans as big underdogs, especially in a sneaky motivation spot for interim coach Mike McCoy against the team that fired him almost a decade ago.

With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Henderson should get the vast majority of carries against the 22nd-ranked rush defense. He should also get all goal-line carries for a team averaging 26.6 points per game.

The Patriots are allowing the fifth-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends. Pitts has caught at least seven passes in back-to-back weeks.

Robinson has had two rough weeks, but this feels like a massive overreaction for a player who has managed at least 124 yards in four of his seven games this season.

This might be the best price we've seen on Bijan Robinson to get into the end zone all season. Yes, it's coming against one of the better defenses in the NFL in New England, but Bijan has scored in three of his last four games, whether that's on the ground or through the air, and is the focal point of this Atlanta offense.

I doubted Drake Maye last week when the New England Patriots played the Cleveland Browns. I won't make that same mistake against an inconsistent Atlanta Falcons team that was poor in its last two defeats. 

It's tough to be a Patriots fan. Tom Brady exits, Drake Maye - an MVP candidate - enters. The Falcons are coming off a spanking against the lowly Miami Dolphins, while New England has a shot to win the AFC East. I'm riding the Pats here.

Drake Maye might legitimately be one of the five best quarterbacks in the world right now in only his second season for New England. With the Patriots' defense showing out, too, I'm shocked this line isn't bigger.

Chicago had a four-game winning streak snapped against the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, as Baltimore allowed a season-low 16 points. Chicago seems heavily reliant on takeaways, with its winning streak spurred by a league-high 16 takeaways entering last week, and it struggled when it did not force a single turnover.

The Chicago Bears struggled on the road against a Baltimore Ravens team that didn't feature Lamar Jackson. While the Cincinnati Bengals imploded at MetLife, I can't lay the points on the Bears in Cincy. 

There are only a handful of teams who could build and then blow such a big lead like the Bengals did last week. They looked so good in the first half, though, that I'm betting on a bounce-back effort this week.

Thomas Jr. may have five drops this season, but the Raiders have been poor at defending perimeter wide receivers. Thomas is also just two games removed from his best output of the season, when he hauled in eight of 10 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. 

Raiders quarterback Geno Smith’s 10 interceptions are tied for the most in the NFL despite playing one fewer game than many. This is about as poor of a matchup as it gets for a turnover-prone quarterback, as Jacksonville is one of three teams in the league with 10-plus interceptions. 

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen stressed the importance of offensive balance coming out of the bye week, as the Jaguars threw 90 passes compared to 38 runs in a two-game losing streak. That should benefit Tuten, who is looking for his fourth game with 21-plus rushing yards this season.

In the last game prior to the bye, Hunter set season-highs in targets (14) and receptions (eight), and that extra volume also paid off with his first NFL touchdown.

Las Vegas has been poor for most of the season, while Jacksonville has shown promise despite getting worked over in London by the Los Angeles Rams before the bye week. 

Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks following blowout losses, but the Raiders looked much more pitiful in the weeks before that. Jacksonville should take care of business to get back on track in the wide-open AFC.

Tyler Shough will get his first start when the New Orleans Saints face the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. The Rams have too many weapons for the rookie signal caller. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 0-3 on the road, losing each by at least 10 points. 

Will it be Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough taking snaps for New Orleans? Neither are equipped to face this underrated Rams defense, while Matthew Stafford is quietly playing at an MVP level. This shouldn't be close.

Mahomes has racked up 56 rushing yards in the red zone on 10 carries, showing his scoring isn't just a product of some quarterback-sneak flukes or goal-line weirdness. That red-zone yadage total ranks tied for 11th leaguewide and ahead of prominent running backs, most notably Bijan Robinson (44) and Saquon Barkley (32).

Don't look now, but Kelce has his swagger back. Kelce has caught at least five balls in five of his last six games, scoring a touchdown in two of them. A week ago, he was one yard short of the 100-yard milestone with a touchdown to his name, and has become a red-zone demon once again. 

This could definitely be my best NFL player prop for Week 9. Allen won't be denied against these Chiefs once more and will do everything in his power to finally take down Patrick Mahomes. It's more than just a game to him. While I still like Kansas City to win, I'm expecting fireworks. Buffalo has the worst run-stopping unit in the league and is susceptible to getting gashed on any given night. In order for the Bills to keep up with Mahomes and Co., it'll rest on Allen's arm.

I'm sorry, but Josh Allen can only do so much. His defense comes in with the worst run-stopping unit in the NFL, and while the secondary has been better, its numbers are inflated due to a schedule featuring the Panthers, Saints, Jets, and Dolphins. Don't be surprised if Patrick Mahomes and Co. blow these Bills out of the water.

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread (5-3), with Buffalo in the bottom 10 (3-4).

Since returning from suspension, Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice has seen a 29% target share, while no other Chiefs player is even at 17%. Rice has also been the first read on 34% of passing plays, and his 40.4% target share since Week 7 is second only behind only Ja’Marr Chase (51.2%).

Josh Allen has a solid track record against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. And as the difference between these teams is negligible, I'm content taking the home betting underdog. 

The Chiefs have been the better team of late and owned the Bills in recent postseasons, but I simply can't bet against Buffalo as a home underdog after a 31-point win - that feels like a quintessential trap.

When the Chiefs have a healthy Rashee Rice over the last two seasons, they are 5-0 while averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 5.6 air yards per attempt, and 6.5 yards after the catch per reception. Without Rice in that span, Kansas City is 14-5 while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, 6.8 air yards per attempt, and 5.6 yards after the catch per reception.

Barner put up a dud in Week 7 with the Seahawks entering their bye, catching just one ball for seven yards. But that came right after a career-high 71 yards. And prior to that high watermark, he had scored four times in as many games. He has steady hands where it matters most too after catching all five of his red-zone targets, converting three into touchdowns.

The Seahawks and Commanders each have bottom-10 pass defenses. The Seahawks have held six opponents to 20 or fewer, but five of those teams ranked in the bottom 14 in scoring offense. With Daniels, the Commanders have scored at least 20 in four of five games.

Smith-Njigba has five 100-yard games this season, and the Commanders rank dead-last in yards allowed per reception (12.7).

Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold leads the NFL with 9.1 yards per attempt, while Washington allows the most yards per pass attempt (8.3). 

The Commanders also have an edge in this game with their up-tempo offense. Washington has run no-huddle on an NFL-high 301 plays, more than the next two teams combined. But Seattle’s defense against no-huddle ranks 21st in yards per play (5.7), 23rd in QBR (64), and 28th in passing yards allowed (298). 

Seattle is 3-0 on the road, with a margin of victory of 8.3 points. They are 2-0 as the road betting favorite, will be well-rested coming off a bye week and have the second-best defensive DVOA and seventh-best offensive DVOA. 

We don't yet know who will play quarterback for the Commanders this week, but either way I'm taking the Seahawks, who just might be the NFL's most overlooked contender amid a 5-2 start.

Bam Knight's red-zone usuage is key, as he's received seven carries near the end zone to Michael Carter's four, turning that into two touchdowns across his last three games. Knight will take that usage and scoring touch against a Dallas Cowboys defense that's getting torched in every way, and particularly on the ground while allowing 146 rushing yards per game (29th).

Prescott will likely once again have to make up for a porous Cowboys defense that allows 31.3 points per game. 

Dallas is the first team in NFL history to score 40 or more points in each of its first three home games to begin a season. Prescott is looking to throw three or more touchdown passes for the fifth time in six games.

Knight has played nearly 50% of the snaps and has seen more than 50% of the team’s rushing attempts over the last two games, which paid off in a score in two of the previous three. He faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed 10 total touchdowns to running backs this season.

McBride has five or more receptions in each of his last nine games dating back to last season. 

McBride hauled in 10 receptions on a whopping 13 targets in the game before the bye. He should have a clear path to 68-plus receiving yards against a Cowboys defense that has allowed over 400 total yards four times this season.

Each of Arizona’s five losses have been by four or fewer points, tying the longest streak in NFL history. With a week off to prepare and with Dallas’ offensive line coming off a season-worst 41% Pass Block Win Rate, I am backing the Cardinals to end their losing skid. 

A home game against the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football represents a perfect bounce-back spot for the Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals have been inconsistent throughout the season, and the Cowboys' offense is a buzzsaw at home. 

The Cowboys are coming off a spanking at the hands of the Denver Broncos, but they can still be one of the league's most elite offenses. Yes, the defense needs help - and a lot of it - but these Cardinals are nothing to be afraid of. The Cowboys and Dak will bounce back huge in prime time here. 

Six of the last seven Cowboys' games have featured at least 57 points, as at least one team has scored at least 30 in six consecutive contests.

The Cardinals simply are not a good football team, and it's time to bet against them accordingly. Dallas has shown enough flashes of offensive brilliance to justify laying the short price at home.