Caleb Williams Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds vs. Commanders

The 2024 first-overall draft pick, Caleb Williams, leads his Chicago Bears in a key NFC matchup against the 5-2 Washington Commanders and we have you covered with our best Caleb Williams player prop bets.

We don’t know whether Offensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite Jayden Daniels, the number two pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, will start for the Commanders. And we probably won’t know until just before the 4:25 p.m. ET matchup at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md.

As we make our Week 8 NFL predictions we note that whether Daniels plays is unlikely to impact Williams’ performance much. His presence makes it more likely this is a shootout, but with how the Commanders’ defense has been playing, Williams could be in for a rough game.

Caleb Williams prop bets Week 8

• Caleb Williams touchdown pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Caleb Williams Under 232.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Caleb Williams Under 0.5 interceptions (-128 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Saturday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Caleb Williams touchdown pick vs. Commanders

Caleb Williams Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+108) ⭐⭐⭐

The last time Williams stepped on the field, he threw four touchdown passes against the Jacksonville Jaguars back in Week 6. The performance marked his second consecutive game with multiple touchdown passes, and he has now thrown at least two touchdown passes in three of his last four.

The Commanders' pass defense has been good at preventing yards, but the unit has given up 1.7 touchdowns per game this season. Williams has been bad in bad matchups, but he’s exploited defensive weaknesses for teams ranked near the bottom of the league.

The price of the Under ranges from -135 to -140. That’s very expensive. With the Over set at +100 or better, the value lies in taking that, since this does feel like a 50/50 play.

Best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.08%

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Caleb Williams NFL player props

NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Caleb Williams Under 232.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Williams has thrown for more than 300 yards in two of his six games this season. He’s thrown for 226 yards or fewer in his other four games. The 226-yard performance is the most worrying since it came against the Jaguars who have the second-worst pass defense in the league.

The Commanders are allowing just 197.6 passing yards per game, and over their last three contests, they’re allowing just 167.0. The pass defense has been burned by some of the best quarterbacks in the league, such as Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, but they’ve held everyone else in check.

The total is set between 227.5 and 232.5, and that’s where it’s been for most of the week. bet365 is asking -110 for Williams to go under 232.5, which is the best price available at any sportsbook.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.83%

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Caleb Williams Under 0.5 interceptions (-128) ⭐⭐⭐

Williams has thrown five interceptions spread out across three games this season. Though it is worrying that he threw a pick against the Jaguars two weeks ago and that interception is the only one Jacksonville has this season, the odds favor him escaping this game without an interception.

The Commanders’ defense is averaging just 0.4 interceptions per game this season. All three of their picks have come in the last two weeks, and two of those were against Andy Dalton in a blowout last week.

The price is expensive for the Under, which is why this is just a three-star play. But the Commanders’ secondary doesn’t pick off many passes, and Williams has proven to be solid protecting the ball so far. Every major sportsbook except for Caesars is asking -130 or worse for the Under.

I have more plays for this one in my Bears vs. Commanders prop bets.

Best odds: -128 via Caesars | Implied probability: 56.14%

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Bears vs. Commanders odds

Bears vs. Commanders game info

• When: Sunday, Oct. 27
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Md.
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: 59 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 1 mph W
• Favorite: Bears -3 (+100 via Caesars)

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