C.J. Stroud MNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds

Can a stumbling Cowboys squad keep C.J. Stroud in check when they host the Texans on Monday Night Football?

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 18, 2024 7:50 AM EST • 5 min read

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud walks off the field after throwing an interception as we make our best C.J. Stroud MNF player prop bets. — Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud walks off the field after throwing an interception. Photo by: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images.

C.J. Stroud leads the Houston Texans into their second consecutive primetime game, a Monday Night Football battle road favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. We cover it from all angles as we continue our Week 11 NFL predictions.

The Texans enter Week 11 with a two-game lead in the AFC South division race, despite entering on a two-game losing streak
Houston’s offense figures to receive a big boost with the return of wideout Nico Collins
The Cowboys have allowed 34.5 points per game during their four-game losing streak

The Monday Night Football odds have Houston as a 7-point road favorite with the total set at 41.5 points. Like we did while making our Texans vs. Cowboys prediction and our Texans vs. Cowboys MNF prop bets, we use that knowledge as the backdrop for our C.J. Stroud MNF player prop bets.

Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, airing on ESPN and ABC.

C.J. Stroud prop predictions for Monday Night Football

C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
C.J. Stroud Under 241.5 passing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
C.J. Stroud longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

C.J. Stroud touchdown pick vs. Cowboys

C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Stroud has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in four consecutive games and five of the last six.

On paper, this looks like a tasty matchup against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns since Week 5. However, Stroud has scored 20 or more fantasy points in just one of the last seven games.

This is a four-star play, as the Texans offensive line has the third-highest pressure rate allowed in the league, which should force the team to abandon the pass in the red zone.

The Under is juiced as high as -135 (carrying a 57.45% implied probability) at BetMGM. I am taking advantage of the best price at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 55.56%

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C.J. Stroud player props

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

C.J. Stroud Under 241.5 passing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐

The Over on Stroud’s passing yards is likely to be a popular play, considering that he has a 29.9% higher passer rating with Collins on the field than when he is off the field. However, given Dallas’ inability to stop the run, Houston projects to get a bigger game from Joe Mixon than from Stroud.

The Cowboys rank 27th against the run, 28th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed a top-12 fantasy running back in four of the last five games.

The Texans’ success is heavily tied to Joe Mixon’s ability to run the football. He has averaged 76 rushing yards in the team’s two-game losing streak but has run for 102 or more yards in three of the four wins he has been involved in.

Under backers will find a big difference between the O/U of 241.5 at FanDuel and the total of 236.5 at BetMGM.

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

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C.J. Stroud longest pass completion Over 35.5 yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

There are few field stretchers in the NFL like Collins, which should help the Texans connect on at least one big pass play, even though we are backing the Under on Stroud’s passing yards.

Collins led the NFL in receiving yards in Weeks 1-5, and Stroud has averaged more than 80 yards per game more with Collins active.

This is a three-star play, as Collins ranks in the top three among wide receivers in yards per route and passer rating when targeted against single-high coverage, and the Cowboys are top 10 in single-high safety usage.

Also, since Week 5, the Cowboys allow the highest passer rating and the most yards per attempt, so Stroud should go over this projected total for the third time in the last four games.

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site offering an O/U of 35.5 for this prop, as all others are slightly higher at 36.5.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Texans vs. Cowboys odds

Monday Night Football game info

Matchup: Texans vs. Cowboys
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
How to watch: ESPN/ABC
Weather: Indoors
Favorite: Texans -7 (-115 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”