Broncos vs. Bills Touchdown Picks & Odds: Wild Card Weekend

The O/U of 47.5 points for the Wild Card Weekend matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills is the highest of all three AFC playoff games, which means there could be plenty of fireworks from a Broncos vs. Bills touchdown picks perspective.

With Josh Allen closing as the favorite by the NFL MVP odds and Bo Nix finishing with the second-most touchdown passes ever by a rookie (29), we examine which players will benefit from their tremendous seasons in this showdown. 

We're expecting a close game with our NFL playoff bracket predictions, which is also represented in these TD picks. Kickoff for Sunday's opener from Highmark Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+).

Broncos vs. Bills touchdown picks

Odds as of Saturday and subject to change.

• Khalil Shakir touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• James Cook touchdown pick: Anytime touchdown scorer (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jaleel McLaughlin touchdown pick: McLaughlin to score a second-half touchdown (+650 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best Broncos vs. Bills touchdown props

Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +240 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 29.41%

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Khalil Shakir led all Bills pass catchers in receiving yards (821) and had 25 more targets and 32 more receptions than any other Buffalo skill position player, despite playing in 15 games.

Shakir’s four receiving touchdowns trail only the five that Mack Hollins produced. 

Though by physical stature he is not the red-zone target that Hollins or Keon Coleman are, operating out of the slot will likely allow him to avoid coverage from one of the league’s best cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain.

This is a three-star play, as Shakir has seen a 27% target rate and 25% target share in the nine full games he has played since returning from injury. 

And quarterback Josh Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of the last five games (excluding Week 18), which makes these +240 odds too good to pass up. Compared to the +210 odds offered at Caesars, we are getting tremendous value at FanDuel.

We have even more touchdown props from this game as part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions.

James Cook anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 56.52%

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James Cook’s anytime touchdown scorer odds are as high as -135 (carrying a 57.45% implied probability). 

While his anytime touchdown odds have risen from -125 at FanDuel to match the -130 found at DraftKings, this still returns a nice payout ($17.69 on a winning $10 wager), and is worth a wager at anything shorter than -140 odds.

Cook tied O.J. Simpson’s single-season franchise record of 16 rushing touchdowns despite surrendering many goal-line touches to Allen. 

But Cook’s versatility is why I love this wager.  He is one of the biggest reasons that Bills running backs rank first in receiving touchdowns (eight), first in yards per reception (10.9), and eighth in yards after the catch per reception (8.9). 

This is a confident four-star play. Since Joe Brady took over as Bills offensive coordinator in Week 11 of last season, Cook ranks in the top 12 of all running backs in scrimmage yards. 

Jaleel McLaughlin to score a second-half touchdown ⭐⭐

Best odds: +650 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 13.33%

With the Bills being 8.5-point home favorites, it's possible that the Broncos will throw more often in the second half, if negative game script has them chasing points. That potential game script could also lead to Nix eclipsing 250 passing yards, which we cover in our Broncos vs. Bills parlay picks. 

But with McLaughlin’s second-half touchdown odds being similar to his odds to score in the first half (+700), it should remind bettors of the possibility that he could also score in garbage time.

McLaughlin has only one rushing touchdown on the season. But he has clearly earned head coach Sean Payton’s respect, as three of his four games with double-digit carries this season have come within the last four weeks.

Buffalo has been susceptible to physical rushing attacks all season, ranking 27th in yards per carry allowed. 

However, Buffalo also allows the fourth-highest third-down conversion percentage (43.8%) in the league, so this bet is worth a flier that one of Denver’s long late touchdown drives will culminate with a McLaughlin score.

Broncos vs. Bills expert picks

• Broncos vs. Bills prediction
• Broncos vs. Bills player prop picks
• Broncos vs. Bills parlay picks
• Broncos vs. Bills touchdown picks
• Bo Nix player prop picks
• Josh Allen player prop picks

Broncos vs. Bills game info

• When: Sunday, Jan. 12
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• How to watch: CBS/Paramount+
• Weather: 30 degrees, 8% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph SSW
• Favorite: Bills -8.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

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