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Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos throws against the Miami Dolphins as we share our favorite Broncos vs. Bears prediction.
Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos throws against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sept. 24, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images via AFP.

After a lackluster Week 3 performance from both the Denver Broncos and the Chicago Bears, we're here with our top predictions for the Broncos vs. Bears matchup, backed by NFL odds from our best sports betting apps. Can Justin Fields win over the Bears' fanbase with a solid performance against the Broncos at Soldier Field?

In Week 3, both the Denver Broncos and the Chicago Bears made headlines, but unfortunately, for all the wrong reasons. Denver's defense succumbed to the Miami Dolphins, allowing a staggering 70 points, marking one of the most embarrassing performances in NFL history.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears had a tough time, being soundly defeated 41-10 by the Kansas City Chiefs, making their situation hardly any better. The Chiefs offense showed no mercy, clicking on all cylinders with Taylor Swift present at Arrowhead Stadium.

As part of our NFL predictions for Week 4, here is our best Broncos vs. Bears prediction and NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Broncos vs. Bears prediction

Over 45.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's difficult to handicap who wins this game, as both teams have issues that will plague them all season. Broncos head coach Sean Payton is 0-3 for the first time since 2016 with the New Orleans Saints, while Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is 3-17, including 13 straight losses (Chicago’s longest-ever losing skid). However, despite both offenses struggling this season, their defenses are even worse, and we should see plenty of points on a perfect day in Chicago.

Denver QB Russell Wilson has one or zero touchdown passes in 13 of 18 starts for the Broncos. Still, he should rebound against a Bears' defense that allowed 25-plus points in an NFL-record 13 consecutive games. It's a big reason why Chicago is the only team to lose all three matchups by double digits so far.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins torched the Broncos for 726 yards, nine shy of an NFL record from 1951. Miami is the first team in NFL history to score 70 points and total 700 yards, the first with 10 offensive touchdowns, and the Broncos were the first to give up 350-plus passing yards and 350 or more rushing yards in a single contest.

There's nothing positive to say about Denver’s defense, as it's equally bad against the pass and rush. Miami was the first team to score five passing TDs and five rushing TDs in a game. Even one of the league's best cornerbacks had an off day, as Broncos corner Patrick Surtain II allowed a career-worst four catches on five targets for 99 yards and a touchdown while shadowing Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill, per Next Gen Stats.

Meanwhile, the Broncos managed 20 points despite going 1-for-4 in the red zone, converting three of 12 third downs, and committing three turnovers. No one will care about Wilson’s stats if the Broncos keep losing games, but he has 12 fewer yards than Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, one fewer TD, the same 99.5 passer rating, and the same 65.5% completion percentage.       

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Broncos vs. Bears best odds

BetMGM (-115)

Over (-110)Over (-110)Over (-115)Over (-110)Over (-110)

Over backers will find the best number at BetMGM, which is a half-point lower than our other best sports betting apps, but we have to decide if laying the -115 juice is worth it. Given how historically bad each defense played recently, it's a perfect game to invest in alternate totals, as shops like DraftKings start paying plus-money odds for an Over of 47. The Over cashed in seven of Denver’s last eight matchups.

Broncos vs. Bears odds

Broncos vs. Bears odds analysis

FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings opened with a 45.5 total Sunday night, but that number lasted only a short time. However, it's a clear ceiling for this total early in the week, as every time the line hits 46.5, Under backers immediately drive it down. Given the line movement and that 67% of the early wagers are on the Under, it seems unlikely this game kicks off with a total higher than 46.5.

DraftKings and bet365 are the only shops at Denver -3, as all other best sportsbooks offer a -3.5 spread. Caesars and DraftKings were the only books to open at -2.5 but were quickly bet through the key number of -3 before settling at their respective numbers. There's much better two-way action on the spread than the total, as 51% of early spread wagers are on Chicago. The Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing record.

Broncos vs. Bears game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 73 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, 7-mph ESE wind

Broncos-Bears prediction made Tuesday, 9/25/23 at 8:59 p.m. ET

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