NFL Best Bets Week 9: Will Burrow Continue Resurgence vs. Bills?
Numerous players will don new uniforms after the recent NFL trade deadline, and alongside our Week 9 NFL predictions, we present our best bets for the week, all based on the most favorable NFL odds.
NFL players and fans have become familiar with games being played in London, but there's a unique development as the league will venture to Germany for a regular-season game for the second consecutive year, indicating a growing international presence.
Eight of the 13 games played on Sunday and Monday feature point spreads of a field goal or less, so we should be in for some competitive football as we reach the halfway point of the regular season this weekend.
Check out our NFL Week 9 predictions and NFL best bets, along with our Week 9 NFL props to accompany our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 9 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 9
- Jalen Hurts Under 30.5 rushing yards vs. Cowboys (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Bills (-155 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Breece Hall Over 16.5 receiving yards vs. Chargers (-133 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Giants-Raiders Over 37 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Week 9 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons (-5)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns (-8)
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (-3)
- Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots (-3.5)
- Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans (-2.5)
- Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. New York Jets
NFL predictions for Week 9
Jalen Hurts Under 30.5 rushing yards vs. Cowboys (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has dominated in division games over the previous two seasons. In such games, Hurts ranks first in total QBR (74), second in touchdown-to-interception ratio (15-2), fourth in yards per attempt (7.7), and he's tied for the second-best win/loss record (6-1) among quarterbacks with a minimum of five division starts.
Though Hurts’ 99 designed rushes were the most by a quarterback last season under Shane Steichen (now the Indianapolis Colts head coach), we expect Hurts to have his success through the air against the Dallas Cowboys, given how hampered he seems to be by a leg injury that forced him to wear a brace on his leg last week.
Dallas’ rush defense will be the key to pulling off an upset. In its five wins, Dallas has allowed 370 rush yards, 74.0 yards per game, 3.2 yards per rush, and one touchdown. In their two losses, the Cowboys have allowed 392 yards, 5.5 yards per rush, and four touchdowns.
The Eagles totaled 223 rushing yards in two games against the Cowboys last season, but Hurts has been limited to 27 yards on the ground over the previous two weeks, and we do not expect him to be a big part of the running game other than on the “Brotherly Shove” plays.
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This number is falling, as many of our best sports betting apps are at an O/U of 29.5 rushing yards now, so we are backing the best number possible at DraftKings before the line plummets further if more injury news around Hurts surfaces.
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Bills (-155 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In Weeks 1 through 4, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow lost three of his four starts while completing 58% of his passes, posting a 35 total QBR, with a 2-2 TD-INT ratio. From Weeks 5 through 8, Burrow won all three starts, completed 78% of his passes, and posted a 68 total QBR, with an 8-2 TD-INT ratio (all of which ranked top-six in the NFL).
Burrow's 18th-ranked total QBR (50) will rise with more stellar play, especially as the Bengals rank third in the NFL in offensive EPA in 11 personnel over the last four weeks.
Buffalo traded for Green Bay Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas, but we do not expect him to make an immediate impact as he gets familiar with the Bills’ scheme. Meanwhile, feared pass-rusher Von Miller has not played more than 26 snaps (or more than 36% of the team’s defensive snaps) in any of the last four games, and giving Burrow time to throw is a death wish with the speed that his receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins possess.
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The juice to back this Over is much higher at DraftKings (-180) and FanDuel (-182), so we are getting a much better price comparatively at BetMGM.
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Breece Hall Over 16.5 receiving yards vs. Chargers (-133 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Los Angeles Chargers' defense had the perfect “get right” opportunity at home against Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears last week. However, that does not mask the fact that their defense entered last week ranked 31st or worse in yards per game (406.8), passing yards per game (310), passing yards per play (8.1), fourth-down percentage (70%), and third-down conversions in the fourth quarter (50%).
Despite the offseason addition of Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall has dominated the backfield touches lately, with those touches increasing from 71.4% to 77.3% to 81.8% over the previous three games. New York will likely once again be playing with its third-string center, which could make running between the tackles difficult. Besides, one of the few strengths of the Chargers' defense is stopping the run, as they rank in the top ten in yards per carry allowed to running backs (3.66).
In addition, Hall has failed to gain yardage on 26.9% of his carries, the third-worst among qualified running backs, per Sharp Football Analysis. That is why we expect the Jets to get the ball in Hall’s hands in other ways, especially since Los Angeles ranks third-worst in receiving points allowed to running backs.
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Though the line has not increased, the vig to back this Over has shot up from an opening price of -120, but the -133 odds found at Caesars still trump the -135 odds offered at DraftKings.
Giants-Raiders Over 37 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Our best oddsmakers were able to capitalize on the public’s view of these two teams entering this week, given what transpired last week. The New York Giants punted on 13 of their 17 possessions against the New York Jets and were held to minus-9 passing yards, the fewest by a team since 2000. However, a steady pouring rain had a lot to do with their offensive malaise, as did an early injury to Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor, and the team did not trust backup quarterback Tommy Devito to throw the ball downfield, with them leading most of the game.
On the Las Vegas Raiders’ side, their firing of head coach Josh McDaniels is likely to have many believing they will struggle in interim head coach Antonio Pierce’s debut. However, it is hard to be worse offensively than they were under McDaniels this season, ranking 30th in points per game, tied for 30th in turnovers, 31st in yards per game, and last in total QBR. Thus, the switch to Aiden O’Connell (65.4% completion percentage, 313 yards, 1-2 TD-INT ratio in two games) should not be viewed as that much of a downgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Giants have held three straight opponents to 14 points or fewer for the first time since 2004, and they are also the first team with 16 points scored or fewer in five consecutive games since the 2018-19 Denver Broncos. However, getting Daniel Jones back from injury should spark their offense, and we believe our best oddsmakers set this line purposely low, knowing the majority would still back the Under.
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With FanDuel slightly higher with an O/U of 37.5 and DraftKings (-112) and BetRivers (-114) charging more in juice to back the Over of 37, bettors have their choice of three of our other best sports betting sites as their go-to shops for a wager on the Over.
NFL best bets made 11/2/2023 at 6:39 a.m. ET.
NFL betting odds pages
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