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NFL Player Props & Best Bets Week 16: Will Tua Torch Cowboys' Pass Defense?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 24, 2023 11:47 AM EST • 5 min 10 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Fifteen NFL games are slated for Christmas weekend, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets for Week 16 based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.

Week 16 is set to showcase potential Super Bowl previews with highly anticipated matchups. The Dallas Cowboys facing the Miami Dolphins on Sunday and the Baltimore Ravens taking on the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football will feature top-tier teams from both conferences. These clashes promise a glimpse into the caliber of competition between standout contenders, setting the stage for potential Super Bowl face-offs.

This marks the first time since 1980 that the top four teams in point differential all face each other this late in a season, according to CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson.

In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions and NFL Week 16 player props, here are our NFL player props and best bets and NFL picks for Week 16 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 16

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Week 16 NFL schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

NFL player props for Week 16

Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Cowboys (-138 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Miami Dolphins' offense uses motion at the snap at the highest rate (65%) of any team in the league. From those plays, the Dolphins have generated a league-best 40 touchdowns (the next-closest team is the 49ers with 20) and have averaged the second-most yards per play (7.1).

That is an area in which Miami will look to attack the Cowboys' pass defense, as it allows a 73 QBR with motion at the snap (fifth-worst), a 6-0 TD-INT ratio, and a 66% completion percentage on such plays. On all other plays, the Cowboys' pass defense allows a 41 QBR, a 12-13 TD-INT, and a 58% completion percentage.

Tagovailoa has thrown multiple touchdown passes just once in the last four games. Still, though we are not keen on his passing yardage total when facing the league’s fourth-stingiest pass defense (the Cowboys allow 176.9 yards per game through the air), we expect Mike McDaniel and the rest of the coaching staff to scheme up ways for Tagovailoa to become the sixth player to throw for multiple touchdowns against the Cowboys.

We are getting great value on this O/U at FanDuel, as the Over is juiced as high as -157 at Caesars.

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Rashee Rice anytime touchdown scorer vs. Raiders (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Rashee Rice, the rookie wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs, made headlines by securing his seventh touchdown in the previous game, a feat that established a new record for Chiefs rookies. With three games remaining in the season, Rice's impressive performance not only showcased his talent and impact but also solidified his place in the team's history books, marking him as a standout player to watch as the season approaches its conclusion.

At this point, Rice is unquestionably Patrick Mahomes’s safety blanket and No. 1 option. When targeting Rice, Mahomes has averaged 9.0 yards per attempt, completed 80% of his passes, and has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio. When targeting all other wide receivers, Mahomes has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt, has posted a 5-8 TD-INT ratio, and his completion percentage drops to 57%.

The Mahomes-to-Rice connection was at its peak last week when Rice caught all eight of his targets, while Mahomes was 5-of-9 when targeting all other wide receivers.

Eighteen different players have caught a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders this season, and while none hauled in multiple touchdowns in the same game, we expect Rice to find the endzone in a “get-right” game for Mahomes in an AFC West-clinching victory.

The best odds at the best sports betting apps for this wager are found at bet365, as DraftKings offers slightly lower +145 odds.

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NFL game picks for Week 16

Vikings +3.5 vs. Lions (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We are taking advantage of the public’s opinion on both of these teams entering this week. The Minnesota Vikings squandered a 17-3 lead after three quarters in an overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Detroit Lions had the third-largest margin of victory of any team last week in a 42-17 trouncing of the Denver Broncos.

The Lions tied a season-high with 29 first downs in last week’s victory, and Jared Goff continued to shred man coverage, throwing a season-high three touchdowns against Denver’s such setup, which brought his season total to 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions when facing man.

However, Minnesota plays man coverage at a bottom-seven rate (17.7% of snaps) and instead employs Cover-2 at the league’s highest rate (23.1%), while Goff is the lowest-rated quarterback in the league against Cover-2 (46.0), per Sharp Football Analysis.

This is also a confident five-star play as we are not sold on Detroit’s defense, who entered Week 15 allowing 29.8 points per game, a 71 Total QBR, and a 45% third-down percentage, all of which ranked bottom-four in the league over the previous five games.

All of our other best sports betting apps are at +3, so we do not mind paying up slightly for the extra half-point, which works like an alternate spread. We would be more inclined to play Minnesota on the moneyline (the best odds are +150 at FanDuel) before we backed it at just a field goal.

Buccaneers ML vs. Jaguars (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites still offering this moneyline odds at a virtual pick’em (each side is -108), as other best sports betting sites like DraftKings have moved as high as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -118, with the growing concern that the Jacksonville Jaguars could be without Trevor Lawrence (he remains in concussion protocol).

And though we still would likely back Tampa Bay even if Lawrence is under center, we are getting out ahead of the potential news of him being out, as the line would likely tilt heavily in Tampa Bay’s favor if it were facing C.J. Beathard.

Jacksonville has lost three consecutive games after an 8-3 start and dropped to 1-5 when allowing 21-plus points this season. The Jaguars' defense has been shredded for 425 yards per game over the last three games, which ranks 31st in that span. Jacksonville’s offense has also consistently put it in bad positions with poor starts, as the Jaguars rank 20th in offensive points per game (9.9) and tied for 28th in turnovers (12) in first halves this season.

After a year in which the Jaguars went 5-2 with a plus-7 turnover margin in November and December, they are now 2-4 since the start of November this season with a minus-4 turnover margin.

Also, we do not trust the Jaguars' pass defense against Baker Mayfield, who is coming off the first-ever perfect passer rating by a visiting quarterback at Lambeau Field, as Jacksonville entered Week 15 allowing 265.2 passing yards per game (31st), 22 passing touchdowns (tied for 27th), 27 sacks (tied 26th), and a 77 QBR against play-action (31st).

The Buccaneers are enjoying their longest winning streak (three games) in two seasons under Todd Bowles, and we expect them to extend that to four.

NFL best bets made Thursday at 4:08 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.